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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 848 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.gale warning in effect through Sunday morning...
.low water advisory in effect from 3 am to 3 pm cst Sunday...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds around 15 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots late this evening and overnight. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy, becoming rough late this evening and overnight. A chance of showers with isolated Thunderstorms early this evening. Patchy fog early this evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots. Bay waters rough, becoming slightly choppy.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth in the late evening and overnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday..East winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 848 Pm Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
strong northwest and north winds around gale force with building seas are expected in the wake of a strong cold front moving into the coastal waters tonight. Low water conditions are also anticipated in the bays late tonight and Sunday. Conditions should slowly improve late Sunday into Monday as high pressure moves overhead and then to the east. Heading into the early and middle parts of next week, a long fetch of moderate east winds set up across the gulf which will cause building seas and above normal tides.

FXUS64 KHGX 100444 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1044 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The cold front is expected to be near the coastal locations this evening and move across the Gulf waters early tonight. A few showers and possible isolated thunderstorms may still occur near/along the front early this evening, although the cap is helping inhibit a lot of the shower development. What is most likely to occur with this front however, is strong gusty northerly winds developing right behind it. Many inland portions will see sustained winds of around 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph early tonight into early Sunday morning. For locations along the immediate coast and Barrier Islands, sustained winds could range between 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to around 40 mph at times. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Barrier Islands and will be in effect from 11 PM tonight through Sunday morning.
Thus, make sure you have light objects, decorations and inflatables stored or secured correctly.

Dry and cool airmass will also filter in after the frontal passage, decreasing our temperatures by around 20 degrees. The lows overnight into early Sunday morning will dip quick and drop into the upper 30s to low 40s along the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and the low to upper 40s elsewhere.

A beautiful but somewhat breezy day is in store on Sunday with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid to upper 50s areawide. CAA will bring down the lows on Sunday night to early Monday morning even further and areas over the Piney Woods region could have lows in the upper 20s to low 30s. For several inland portions, the lows could be near freezing and will have to be monitored for a possible Freeze Watch. Areas in and around the Houston Metro will have lows closer to the mid to upper 30s, while the coastal lows will range in the upper 30s to low 40s.

Cotto (24)

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The long term starts good and chilly Monday morning. The highest likelihood for sub-freezing temperatures roughly maps over the portion of the area that has already seen freezing temps already this season, along the northern and eastern edges of the forecast area. That said, a good push of post-frontal cold advection after the front paired with some really good radiational cooling potential Sunday night means folks as far south as Bay City have at least a realistic potential of starting Monday from the freezing mark. How far south freezing temps go by Monday morning will likely be a point of focus through the weekend.

For those who aren't fans of chilly weather, take heart in that Monday morning looks to be the depths of how cold it will get this week. The high pressure center that should be overhead to set up such a cold morning will continue drifting eastward, and we should be looking to see winds veer easterly enough to get at least a partial Gulf connection, boosting humidity, and ultimately setting us up for a slow warmup. Now, it's not going to get *that* warm...we're getting a mostly sunny sky in *December*, and a switch from cold advection to return flow is *partial*...so don't get too excited, hot weather fans. I've only got Monday highs getting to around or just on the cool side of climatological average. Of course, with less impressive conditions for cooling and modestly higher dewpoints keeping up the temperature floor, Monday night looks chilly, but not as chilly as the previous.
Again, I've got somewhere around the averages for this time of year.
The warmup continues on Tuesday, with highs pushing a little bit above average into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

This time of year, we are more significantly influenced by the northern stream pattern, and so you'd be forgiven if you look at the next trough/low pairing moving through that pattern getting hemmed up in Canada followed by another big high settling into the eastern US and think "Hey, looks like we'll just keep on with more of the same for the rest of the week!" And, if you were in much of the eastern half of the country, that may not be the worst thought. For us, on the southwestern fringe of the big high pressure center though, things get a bit of a complication.

See, while northern stream troughs aren't getting out of Canada in this timeframe, we're looking for a messy little disorganized trough in the southern stream push its way into the western Gulf of Mexico.
It's not a lot to look at, but guidance seems pretty confident that it'll be enough to spin up a weak surface trough over the Gulf. Its main impact will be to increase clouds and deform the wind field.
The clouds should help constrain the diurnal temperature range a bit, keeping highs down a little and holding highs up some. The wind shift will be a bit mixed. With winds backing more to northeasterly, this should keep things dry in the east. Meanwhile, look for moisture to build down closer to that trough, and to see some rain chances begin to sneak in the southwestern corner of our area. This should mainly affect the Gulf waters off Matagorda Bay. But, I've got some slight chance PoPs creeping onshore late Wednesday/early Thursday.

Those rain chances continue to spread in from the west late in the week, as we see stronger onshore flow resume in the wake of that midweek trough and in advance of the next cold front. As that front swoops in at the end of the week, we'll see our next good area-wide chance for rain, and a new jab of colder air.

AVIATION
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Only a few SHRA left out there across coastal areas, and these should be east of the TAF sites before 6Z. Will see mid level clouds shift east overnight as well, with clear skies and breezy NW winds expected tomorrow. Will see N winds subside early eve tomorrow when mixing ceases.

Wood

MARINE
Issued at 224 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Moderate onshore winds prevail this afternoon, but only until a cold front sweeps across the waters this evening. Expect winds to switch around to northwesterly, and become strong and gusty overnight into Sunday. A gale warning remains in effect from 9 pm through noon tomorrow. Expect winds to peak in the late night hours tonight, with maximum wind speeds in the 30 to 35 kt range and gusts 40-45 knots.
Seas will lag behind the winds a bit, peaking early Sunday morning.
The highest seas around 60 nm out may reach to around 13 feet. In the bays, the gusty northwest winds will result in abnormally low water levels at times of low tide, and so a low water advisory is out for Sunday.

Winds subside tomorrow night, gradually becoming more northeasterly by Monday morning and easterly to southeasterly through the day Monday at light to moderate speeds. The development of a weak surface trough over the Gulf next week will result in winds increasing and becoming more east to northeasterly for the midweek.
Depending on how much this trough develops, a need for small craft advisories may emerge at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 42 57 32 62 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 46 58 35 62 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 49 58 44 62 / 50 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Wind Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Gale Warning until noon CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370- 375.

Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

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Clear Lake
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Sat -- 01:49 AM CST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:43 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:07 AM CST     0.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:56 PM CST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:54 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:45 PM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Sat -- 12:14 AM CST     -0.27 knots Min Ebb
Sat -- 03:41 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:52 AM CST     -1.95 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:01 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:08 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:53 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:53 PM CST     2.03 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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