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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 230 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming east 25 to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.
Thursday night..East winds 25 to 30 knots, diminishing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet.
Friday..East winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 230 Pm Cst Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis..
winds and seas will begin increasing by Tuesday, and remain elevated through the end of the week, as a tightening pressure gradient produces a prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the northern gulf of mexico. Small craft advisories will be likely by Tuesday night, with potential gale conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. A strong upper level trough expected to move across the northern gulf of mexico Friday through Saturday, increasing chances for showers and Thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.

FXUS64 KLCH 112050 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 250 PM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)

Wx map shows 1025 mb surface high pressure ridge from Southern Louisiana to Tennessee this afternoon. With the weak pressure gradient, winds continue to be light and variable. Temperatures across the region range in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Clear skies and calm winds will lead to another cold night across the area. A light freeze with lows 30-32 expected over Central Louisiana, and mid/upper 30s expected further south and west.
Easterly winds likely to keep temperatures up across the coastal parishes and counties with lower 40s expected.

For Tuesday, the center of high pressure expected to slide east, with mainly east to east southeast winds expected to resume across the region. May see some scattered high clouds stream across the region, but expecting mostly sunny skies and highs in the lower to mid 60s. By Tuesday night, the mostly clear skies and dry air expected to allow temperatures to drop in the mid 30s to mid 40s early, but increasing cloudiness after midnight likely to halt the temperatures from dropping any father by Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday, a large cold surface high expected to build southeast across the Central and Southern U.S. bringing another shot of cooler air across the region. The mid to upper level pattern expected to be predominately from the southwest due to a digging trough over the Desert Southwest, bringing mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.
Thus, the highs only expected in the lower 60s.

08/DML

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)

The long range continues with a split flow over the central CONUS with the Polar Jet draped between the Pacific NW, central Canada, the northeast CONUS, and Canadian Maritimes. The southern stream meanders around the SW CONUS, northern Mexico, and Gulf of Mexico before the patterns adjoins over the eastern Atlantic waters. With the evolution of this pattern comes some uncertainty regarding our next potential precipitation event closing out this work week, entering the early weekend.

An expansive surface high pressure will build over northern Appalachia Thursday afternoon allowing easterly flow at the surface as it abuts low pressure troughing extending north of the Yucatan Peninsula. This setup creates a rather tight pressure gradient along the LA/TX Gulf Coast indicating possible wind/sea marine hazards before easing Friday. Little will change with surface high temperatures compared to Wednesday with advection being mainly natural. Moisture advection will, however, increase into Friday in the lower troposphere where surface impacts become more complicated trending into the weekend.

Several forms of guidance are in good agreement a shortwave develops over the West Coast and becomes cut off, at least partially, from the northern Jet pattern while continuing a slow eastward progression over the SW CONUS region as the northern stream continues to amplify ridging over the upper Midwest. Thereafter subtle differences in the time progression of the upper air pattern among model suites create some uncertainty in precipitation amounts.
By Friday, a fast moving shortwave in the northern stream draped over Canada will shift across North America as it show signs of amplifying south across the central/southern plains toward the TX/LA Gulf Coast trending into Saturday morning. Meanwhile over Mexico and Central Gulf, the southern stream subtropical develops a Jet max north of Cuba allowing cyclogenesis to possibly take place while the strong upper level low rests over eastern Texas Saturday morning.
POPS will quickly increase late Friday and early Saturday as low level advection entrances moisture over an area of favorable lift between SETX and western TN valley. Under this scenario, surface low pressure troughing would develop over the western Gulf of Mexico with a more concentric surface low deepening over the central / eastern Gulf considering GFS/GEFS suite. As the upper level low abuts into the Gulf, the Jet Max continues a steady progression eastward across the FL Keys. Hereafter the southern stream phases with the northern pattern off the eastern Seaboard as CAA filters across southern TX/LA through the remainder of the weekend and early next work week. The alternative solution which also results in notable POPS from the ECMWF suite creates a slower progression of the amplifying shortwave from TX into the Gulf which would equate to a weaker jet max over southern Florida before rejoining the downstream pattern over the eastern Atlantic. A weaker / slow moving surface low would develop closer TX/LA Gulf Coast before being lifted NE as the wave rotates across the southeast. Both solutions don’t point toward considerable severe weather hazards for our area at this time, however, excessive rainfall as highlighted in the day 5 SPC outlook for eastern TX may be a concern to watch as we approach this next system at the start of the weekend. Closing out the weekend precipitation chances will taper west to east as aforementioned system shifts over the southeast CONUS with a NE’ly regime creating dry conditions in the following work week.

Kowalski/30

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions expected through the period. Northeast to east winds 5-7 kts this afternoon, becoming nearly calm by 00z, and east around 7-8 kts after 15z Tuesday.

08/DML

MARINE

Winds and seas will begin increasing by Tuesday, and remain elevated through the end of the week, as a tightening pressure gradient produces a prolonged and strong easterly fetch across the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Small Craft Advisories will be likely by Tuesday night, with potential Gale conditions on Wednesday and Thursday.
A strong upper level trough expected to move across the Northern Gulf of Mexico Friday through Saturday, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.

08/DML

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 31 63 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 36 63 39 62 / 0 0 0 0 LFT 37 62 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 BPT 41 63 44 62 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Mermentau River entrance
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Mon -- 05:39 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:57 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:25 AM CST     -0.72 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:07 PM CST     2.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:03 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:49 PM CST     2.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:28 PM CST     2.29 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lighthouse Point
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Mon -- 05:34 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:07 AM CST     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 03:45 PM CST     2.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:59 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:10 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:31 PM CST     1.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:06 PM CST     1.79 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

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