Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 2:46 PM   Moonset 2:26 AM

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GMZ452 Coastal Waters From Intracoastal City To Cameron La Out 20 Nm- 1005 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south late. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning. Tonight - South winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Sunday - East winds around 5 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 8 seconds and south 1 foot at 7 seconds. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: south 2 feet at 6 seconds. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and southeast 1 foot at 7 seconds. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 1005 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms 20 to 60 nautical miles south of vermilion and atchafalaya bays will continue to diminish this morning through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, light onshore flow and low seas with no precipitation is expected through the period as high pressure prevails.

FXUS64 KLCH 181625 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1125 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE

UPDATE
Wx map shows weak surface high pressure ridge remains over the area, which is expected to keep winds light from the southeast to variable this afternoon. Areas of morning dense fog has dissipated this morning, with partly cloudy skies expected this afternoon and warmer temperatures, with mid to upper 80s over Central and Southern Louisiana, and upper 80s to near 90 over Southeast Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms 20 to 60 nautical miles south of Vermilion and Atchafalaya bays will continue to diminish this morning through the early afternoon hours, with no precipitation expected inland. Updates included new text wording for the ending of the dense fog advisory, otherwise, no changes made.

Likely to have areas of fog once again late tonight/Sunday morning, with visibilities lowest towards daybreak.

08/DML

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak cold front extending from an area of low pressure over far srn MS swwd across sern LA and into our far ern coastal waters. Water vapor imagery shows a significant shortwave approaching the forecast area from the Ozarks/ern TX.
Combined with good moisture over the region (00z KLCH sounding showed a low-level mean RH of 80 percent and a PWAT of 1.63 inches while KLIX raob showed 82 percent/1.85 inches), local 88Ds were showing widespread convection over coastal swrn LA/all of s-cntl LA, plus the adjoining coastal water...some of the activity over the Gulf was rather hefty with large hail possibly falling.
Meanwhile, the other problem child over the forecast area was patchy dense fog developing.

In the near term, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the wrn 2/3 of the forecast area as observations on the past hour have shown an increase in the number of sites seeing lower visibilities, or at least a downward trend. The fog should burn off after sunrise, with an expiration time for the advisory of 15z.

This morning should see the last of the rain for a while. Ongoing activity is expected to continue pushing ewd as the mid-level shortwave shifts into the forecast area and the sfc front further departs. For now, POP grids show decreasing rain chances over the far sern zones for the first couple hours after sunrise. Thereafter, skies should begin clearing as good dry air aloft begins encroaching. Despite being on the back side of a cool front, it won't really be cool today with highs generally in the upper 80s (about normal for mid-May).

Moving forward, the remainder of the sho658rt term continues to look dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. Guidance isn't very bullish on fog development tonight, which is reflected in the grids/zones at this time...suspect that the combo of clear skies/calm winds with lingering boundary layer moisture will spell at least some patchy fog development prior to sunrise Sunday.
Look for highs back in the lower 90s for most of the area tomorrow and Monday.

25

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The bulk of the long term continues to look dry as the ridging aloft lingers into mid-week. We do begin to see a little bit of a pattern change by late Wednesday though as a nrn stream shortwave begins breaking down the ridge/nudging it ewd. Meanwhile, an associated sfc front is progged to drift swd into nrn LA before stalling. As a series of disturbances swing by to our north, we should see some convection begin encroaching on our nrn zones by Thursday, although rain chances remain rather small at this time.

High temps generally hold around 90 degrees through the long term.
Lows are progged to slowly inch upward with mid 70s likely across the srn zones by the end of the period.

25

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)

VFR expected this afternoon and evening with partly cloudy skies.
Southeast winds around 7-8 kts at BPT/LCH, variable at 5 kts remainder of sites. Areas of fog likely to form once again after 16z, with the lowest visibilities between 09-13z at all sites with IFR/LIFR conditions. After 14z Sunday, expect southeast winds 6-8 kts at southern terminals, variable 5 kts at AEX.

08/DML

MARINE

Scattered showers and thunderstorms 20 to 60 nautical miles south of Vermilion and Atchafalaya bays will continue to diminish this morning through the early afternoon hours. Otherwise, light onshore flow and low seas with no precipitation is expected through the period as high pressure prevails.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 87 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 72 91 72 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 89 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Mermentau River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:06 AM CDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:28 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM CDT     1.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:43 AM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:47 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:21 PM CDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mermentau River entrance, Louisiana, Tide feet

Lighthouse Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:44 AM CDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:24 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:40 AM CDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:21 PM CDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:03 PM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lighthouse Point, Louisiana, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,