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AMZ454 Expires:202312082215;;111961 Fzus52 Kjax 081319 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 819 am est Fri dec 8 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-082215- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 819 am est Fri dec 8 2023
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 819 Am Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
high pressure centered over the gulf stream waters this morning will shift eastward this afternoon and tonight. A few showers may develop late this afternoon and this evening across our local waters, with isolated showers and possibly a few Thunderstorms then expected from Saturday through early Sunday. Meanwhile, a strong cold front will enter the southeastern states on Saturday night, resulting in strengthening southerly winds and building seas by early Sunday. Showers and Thunderstorms will impact our local waters on Sunday afternoon and evening, with activity then diminishing during the overnight hours following the passage of this strong cold front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly towards midnight on Sunday night, with occasional gusts to gale force possible during the overnight hours. High pressure building over the lower mississippi valley in the wake of this frontal passage will shift northeastward early next week while strengthening. An extended period of breezy northeasterly winds and building seas is expected to begin on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 07, 2023 at 1200 utc...
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 87 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 081351 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 851 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 839 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Forecast remains on track as SW flow aloft will continue to slowly increase atmospheric moisture levels along with abundant mid and high clouds through the day and into tonight. Moisture levels may increase enough to allow for some light shower/sprinkle activity across NE FL by late this afternoon and into tonight, but overall measurable rainfall chances remain around 20% or less and any rainfall amounts will be very light. Max temps return to slightly above normal levels today with a few sunny breaks in the mostly cloudy skies as Highs reach into the upper 60s across SE GA and into the lower 70s across NE FL. Abundant mid/high clouds tonight will hold overnight lows in the 50s inland and around 60F along the Atlantic beaches. Due to the abundant cloud cover tonight any significant fog risk appears lower than normal around sunrise Saturday with only patchy fog expected, but dewpoints are expected to slowly rise into the 60s over the coastal waters and light sea fog/marine haze may develop over the nearshore waters.

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Overnight surface analysis depicts high pressure (1024 millibars)
centered over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to northeast FL.
Meanwhile, a series of frontal boundaries were traversing the Plains states, the Rockies, and the Pacific northwest.
Aloft...mostly zonal flow prevails locally, as our area lies between flat ridging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a potent shortwave trough that was progressing across the Dakotas. a weaker shortwave trough was progressing within the zonal flow pattern across western and central portions of the Gulf of Mexico and along the northern Gulf coast. Mostly thin cirroform cloudiness has overspread our region overnight, with thicker mid and high altitude cloud cover associated with the weak shortwave trough located from western portions of the FL panhandle westward to the upper Texas coast. Temperatures and dewpoints across inland southeast GA generally ranged from 35-40 at 08Z, while values elsewhere were mostly in the 40s.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Mainly mid and high altitude cloudiness will gradually thicken from west to east this morning as the weak upstream shortwave trough glides eastward along the northern Gulf coast. Model soundings indicate that mid-level dry air will be slow to erode today as isentropic lift (overrunning) gradually strengthens late this afternoon and evening, likely resulting in virga across our area towards sunset. Veering low level flow and filtered sunshine this morning should allow highs to rebound to the upper 60s across most of southeast GA, while values generally climb to the 70-75 degree range across northeast and north central FL, except upper 60s along the immediate coast, where a light onshore breeze will develop this afternoon. A few light showers or sprinkles may develop for locations along and south of the Interstate 10 corridor towards the evening hours as the weak shortwave approaches the FL panhandle coast.

Light showers or sprinkles will be possible this evening across northeast and north central FL and possibly coastal southeast GA as the aforementioned weak shortwave moves overhead. Chances for measurable rainfall will likely remain below 50% for these locations through around midnight. This shortwave trough will then progress offshore overnight, with high pressure strengthening over the western Atlantic waters resulting in increasing low level southerly winds towards sunrise on Saturday. These strengthening low level winds may prevent fog formation, but low stratus ceilings will likely develop in this warm air advection pattern during the overnight hours as mid and high altitude cloud cover associated with the departing shortwave decreases in coverage.
Lows tonight will remain in the 50s at inland locations, ranging to around 60 along the northeast FL coast.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure will be east northeast of the region Saturday into Saturday night. Clouds will increase across the area as southeast flow brings more moisture into area. A few coastal showers will be possible. The southeast flow will also bring warmer air into the region. Highs will be in the mid 70s across SE GA, to upper 70s to near 80 for NE FL. The coolest readings will be at the coast as air flows across cooler coastal waters. The above normal temperatures will continue into Saturday night, with lows in the lower 60s.

A strong cold front will move into western counties Sunday morning, then cross the area Sunday afternoon and evening. There is high confidence in precipitation Sunday. A round of thunderstorms ahead of, and along the front. Strong to severe storms can not be ruled out Sunday into Sunday evening. Highs Sunday will depend on the timing of the front. With the current forecast timing, expect highs to hold in the lower 70s inland, but could reach near 80 for north central FL.

At this time, it looks like the front and most of its associated precipitation will move southeast of the area around midnight. High pressure will build from the west during the overnight, with skies clearing from west to east. Temperatures will cool quickly following the frontal passage, with lows dipping into the upper 30s inland, to the mid 40s coastal NE FL.

The high will become centered to the north northwest Monday, with northwest flow keeping cold advection going through the day. It will be a sunny day, but temperatures will unseasonably cool. Highs will range from the mid 50s across SE GA, and inland NE FL around 60

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure will be centered to the north northeast Monday night through Tuesday. This pattern will yield a trend toward onshore flow helping to gradually increase cloud coverage.

This slow shift toward onshore flow will result in a wide contrast in temperatures Monday night. Lows will range from the lower 30s inland SE GA, to the mid 40s coastal NE FL. An inland frost is expected, especially for inland SE GA. Highs Tuesday will range from the mid to upper 50s interior SE GA to the mid 60s coastal NE FL.

The high will build further to the north Tuesday night through Thursday, as moisture builds north toward the region. Weak coastal troughing may develop mid week due to the onshore flow pattern around the high. This trough will yield a chance for showers north central and coastal NE FL Wednesday night into Thursday.

Another night with a broad range in temperatures Tuesday night due to the onshore flow. Lows Tuesday night in the upper 30s inland SE GA, to the mid 50s coastal NE FL. On Wednesday, highs ranging from around 60 SE GA, to near 70 north central FL. A broad range in lows once again Wednesday night, but a few degrees milder than Tuesday night. Highs Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than Wednesday.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through at least 06Z Saturday at the regional terminals. Mid and high altitude cloud cover will gradually thicken today, with a few light showers possibly developing near or over the terminals after 20Z. Confidence remains too low to include anything other than vicinity coverage at this time.
Lower stratus clouds and fog may develop during the overnight hours at VQQ. Lower stratus ceilings may develop towards sunrise on Saturday at the rest of the terminals, but confidence was too low to include anything other than scattered ceilings at this time. Light and variable surface winds will prevail through the early to mid-morning hours, with southeast to southerly winds then increasing to around 5 knots towards noon. Surface winds then shift to east-southeasterly at the coastal terminals after 18Z.
Light southerly surface winds are expected after sunset.

MARINE
Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

High pressure centered over the Gulf Stream waters this morning will shift eastward this afternoon and tonight. A few showers may develop late this afternoon and this evening across our local waters, with isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms then expected from Saturday through early Sunday. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Saturday evening.

A strong cold front will enter the southeastern states on Saturday night, resulting in strengthening southerly winds and building seas by early Sunday. Small Craft will likely need to Exercise Caution if venturing into the offshore waters on Sunday, where speeds will increase to 15-20 knots and seas will build to 4-6 feet by Sunday afternoon. Small Craft Advisory conditions will then overspread our local waters by Sunday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will impact our local waters on Sunday afternoon and evening, with activity then diminishing during the overnight hours following the passage of this strong cold front. Winds will abruptly shift to northwesterly towards midnight on Sunday night, with occasional gusts to Gale Force possible during the overnight hours. Seas will build to the 5-7 foot range offshore on Sunday night and Monday, while seas near shore build to the 4-5 foot range. High pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of this frontal passage will shift northeastward early next week while strengthening. An extended period of breezy northeasterly winds and building seas is expected to begin on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Caution conditions will likely continue offshore from Monday night through Tuesday night.

Rip Currents: A persistent northeasterly ocean swell will combine with light onshore winds to create a low-end moderate rip current risk at all area beaches through Saturday. Breezy southerly winds and building seas will likely create a more solid moderate risk at area beaches on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 67 53 78 62 / 10 10 10 20 SSI 66 58 72 62 / 0 10 10 20 JAX 72 57 79 61 / 10 30 10 10 SGJ 72 60 78 63 / 20 20 10 10 GNV 73 57 80 62 / 20 20 10 10 OCF 74 58 81 62 / 10 10 10 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida, Tide feet

Smith Creek
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Fri -- 02:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:16 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:25 AM EST     0.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:26 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 03:58 PM EST     0.33 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:35 PM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida, Tide feet

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