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GMZ538 Expires:202311290415;;550106 Fzus54 Klix 281551 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 951 am cst Tue nov 28 2023
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves...along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-290415- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 951 am cst Tue nov 28 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect until noon cst today...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers.
Saturday night..South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 951 Am Cst Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
strong high pressure will build over the waters through midweek. Colder air will accompany this high resulting in increased offshore winds and higher seas through this afternoon. The high will settle across the region by tonight and into midweek allowing winds and seas to ease. The high will begin to shift east of the local waters on Thursday, with a return to a moderate onshore flow.

FXUS64 KLIX 281113 AAA AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 513 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

NEW AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Some echoes have been showing up overnight on KMOB across the far northwestern tier. A quick look at the mid and upper levels explains why this is as an H5 shear/vort axis resides over the region. This is helping produce the virga on radar and the high cirrus deck over the area. So, taking a look at the latest RAOB one will see why POPs are as close to zero percent as they could be with echoes on the radar. The boundary layer and most of the column is bone dry and a simple vort axis will not provide enough lift to modify rain probs. That said, the upper level cloud deck is keeping our region from radiating as effectively with temperatures not dropping off as much as they would otherwise...so just a degree or two warmer than initially thought.

At the surface today, high pressure will begin to migrate into the region from the west, which should break the surface pressure gradient down a good bit leading to mostly calm conditions.
Overnight tonight with calm winds and clear skies, temperatures will drop into the 30s for most locations north of the lake including the MS Gulf Coast. Temperatures will also be the coolest along the drainage basins over the Pascagoula and Pearl Basins.
Temps as low at the upper 20s cannot be ruled out. For this went ahead with the period 2 freeze warning generally along and north of the I10/12 corridor. Coastal Jackson and Hancock Co., were included again because the drainage areas affecting the coastal zones respectively.

Wednesday will start out cold, but this will begin the transition to warmer weather as the surface high exits stage east allowing for a developing onshore/return flow to take shape. This return flow will start to bring in much warmer and more moist air into the region from the central Gulf. The upper level pattern will quickly evolve from a cool and dry northwest flow to a very active southwest flow on the northwest periphery of an H5 ridge over the western Caribbean. This regime change comes with slightly higher heights, which along with the return flow developing will allow temperatures to warm overnight Wednesday and and especially during the day on Thursday. Attention shifts quickly upstream on Thursday with a strong shortwave trough ejecting from the Four Corners region and into the high plains. As the feature takes on a negative tilt, confluence in the mid levels ahead, and H3 jet dynamics ramp up over the Red River, widespread showers and thunderstorm activity is anticipated to develop across the Sabine River Basin and quickly spread into our region PM on Thursday.
Again, low severe probs cannot be ruled out here, but as stated in the last few discussions, best ascent will be north and west of our CWFA. (Frye)

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

The mid level impulse that will help in part generate the widespread shower and thunderstorm activity in the short term will move northeastward quickly and begin to weaken over the Great Lakes region. Back home, we will start the long term same as we ended the short term with active southwesterly flow. As the parent trough moves northeast, the surface front will stall as it becomes parallel to the mean upper level flow. By Friday afternoon a break in the rainfall is anticipated, however, eyes shift quickly upstream again over the western Gulf of Mexico.
Another wet pattern looks probable in the globals by late Friday and into Saturday. Depending on where the front stalls will likely indicate the heaviest rainfall amounts. There will be some convection along and south of the front with elevated thunder possible with heavy rainfall rates along and north/west of the surface front.

Beyond this second impulse, things do become a bit more fuzzy in terms of timing of additional shortwaves within the southwest flow. The front will remain locked in place at least into the start of the new workweek. Any vort or weak trough within the flow will help generate additional showers and storms through early Sunday morning. Right now, Globals are showing anywhere between 3 to 5 inches of rainfall across the region. Exact values are a bit lower confidence and of course exactly where, but given the orientation of the surface front it is a bit more confident that a good soaking rainfall is in the cards for the first weekend of December.

One slight change this round is the globals are a bit more progressive with moving the front downstream as a stronger upper level short wave begins to slide eastward and eventually leading to a more zonal or progressive flow aloft on Sunday. This will finally take the front east of the region allow for clouds to break and cold air advection, albeit weak to develop. Confidence this scenario within the D6-8 timeframe is low so we will continue some lower-end POPs for continuity, but if these trends continue we will likely need to clear any precip mention beyond 18z on Sunday. (Frye)

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions through the cycle. The high cirrus will begin to decrease through the morning. Northerly winds will also decrease generally below 10kts. However, winds off the lake will remain elevated for NEW before gradually decreasing with time. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 300 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

High pressure will begin to move into the region later today, which will help decrease winds and seas over the local waters.
Cautionary headlines continue through the morning, but again improvement is anticipated shortly. Later today and Wednesday look favorable, however, at the very least a moderate onshore flow begins to develop as the high exits to our east by early Thursday.
Rain and storms also increase after noon on Thursday as the low level flow continues to increase ahead of the next system. At least cautionary headlines will be needed late this week and into the weekend. (Frye)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 31 60 41 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 62 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 10 ASD 61 33 62 44 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 59 46 62 51 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 60 37 60 46 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 62 31 63 40 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ034>037- 039-048-071-076-079-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 7 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ068>071- 077-083>086-088.

GM...None.

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Gardner Island
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Tue -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:53 AM CST     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
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Tue -- 10:40 PM CST     2.01 feet High Tide
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Gardner Island, Breton Sound, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
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Tue -- 07:57 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:46 PM CST     -0.55 feet Low Tide
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Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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