Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 8:28 PM   Moonset 6:34 AM

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GMZ538 Expires:202404250745;;309847 Fzus54 Klix 242006 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 306 pm cdt Wed apr 24 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz536-538-250745- chandeleur sound-breton sound- 306 pm cdt Wed apr 24 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet this evening, then 1 foot or less. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.Friday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 35 knots in the evening. Waves 4 to 5 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds around 20 knots. Waves around 4 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 4 feet. Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Waves around 3 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 306 Pm Cdt Wed Apr 24 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure will remain across the local waters through much of the week allowing for favorable marine conditions across the region. Winds have transitioned to a more southerly to southeasterly direction as the high moves east of the region. Heading into Friday and more so the weekend, the pressure gradient will tighten again as multiple surface lows will develop and move northeast across the plains this weekend. This will cause winds to respond and a good chance that some headlines will be needed.

FXUS64 KLIX 241733 AAC AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

NEW AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Overall, ongoing forecast looks to be okay, so no near term changes to today or this afternoon. One minor changes was made overnight and especially early Thursday morning. Decided to add in some patchy fog respectively. Weaker low level flow and increasing low level moisture will help aid in at least some potential for fog. SREF is most bullish along and north of I10/12 and also west of I55 in Louisiana. (Frye)

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It has been a much warmer night across the region but still cool compared to normal. By 8z most of the area had dropped into the 50s with lower to mid 60s right along the coasts. Moisture has increased some but dewpoints are still in the upper 40s to near 60. This should help keep any fog potential this morning down to a minimum and even if some fog does develop it will likely be very shallow.

The forecast for the rest of the work week is rather quiet. The only possible impact to mention is more of an aviation impact and that would be fog or low clouds. The LL winds aren't really strong enough to make me overly concerned for the low clouds Thursday and Friday and given the rather dry soil conditions any fog that may develop would probably be ground fog and thus very shallow and not much if any impact.

Mid lvl ridge begins to build in today and will dominate the region through the weekend. LL temps will start to increase in response with h925 temps likely around 17/18C and could be around 21C by Friday while h85 temps should approach 11/12C today and around 14/15C by Friday. Mixing dry adiabatically to these lvls only indicates highs in the 80s the rest of the week, 80-83 today and 82-86 possibly topping out around 87/88 in isolated areas on Friday. Just like yesterday the NBM is a little more bullish on highs than the other MOS products and given the LL temps being advertised am inclined once again to lean towards the MOS values.
That said there are a few small things that could lead to the warmer NBM. First is the lack of wind at least the next 2 days.
This would keep us from mixing as much and allowing the BL to inch up a degree or two more than anticipated. Second is the dry sfc conditions; it has been about 2 weeks since anyone has seen a really good wetting rain and the drier soil conditions could play in favor of the warmer NBM but those two caveats have a greater impact in the Summer and late Spring and it is still mid/late April. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

There hasn't been any major shifts in the thinking for the extended portion of the forecast. Medium range models in rather good agreement and both the consistency within the models and continuity between the models is about as good as you can ask for. What does this mean, well it should be a quiet yet warm weekend and rain likely returning to the region late Monday into Tuesday.

Ridge will dominate the region through the weekend. As the ridge holds firm across the southeastern CONUS through the weekend it will cause multiple disturbances to lift northeast across the Plains and into the Upper MS Valley. This will keep any rain out of the area and should lead to a rather warm weekend. There is a good chance that most of the area will see highs in the mid to even upper 80s. Saturday may have a good deal of cirrus in place as the subtropical jet streams across the region Friday night and through much of Saturday but by Sunday it looks to be in the Gulf while the polar jet dips across the 4 corners and then races to the northeast. That should help to lose what high clouds are over us and more sun. There is also a very small chance that some light, uhhh very light isolated to scattered showers could develop Sunday. This appears to be associated with a tongue of higher LL moisture streaming in from the SSE across the CWA But as soon as we lose the daytime heating any showers out there would quickly cease.

Heading into next week the ridge will finally break down. After holding off multiple disturbance over the weekend running into and over the western periphery of the ridge it will finally given in and along with the entire ridge slide east along the Atlantic coast and into the Atlantic. This will allow a mild/weak L/W trough to slide into and through the area late Monday and into Tuesday. This will also allow a weak cold front to push into the area but likely not all the way through and it will be these two features that help to bring some rain back into the region. Still not looking at much in the way of impacts yet as this doesn't have the sign of strong to severe weather. /CAB/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions anticipated for all terminals this afternoon and into tonight. Just prior to sunrise some patchy shallow fog will be possible, especially for MCB where IFR or lower VIS may be possible. This will quickly dissipate after sunrise leading to VFR conditions once again from that point through the end of the cycle. Winds will stay rather light and southerly. (Frye)

MARINE
Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Benign conditions will continue through the work week as high pressure dominates the region. By this weekend winds will increase in response to a tightening of the pressure gradient. This will be cause by multiple surface low developing and moving northeast across the Plains this weekend and into next week. This should lead to some headlines being needed possibly as early as Friday night and into next week. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 62 85 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 61 82 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 65 83 68 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 62 81 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 59 84 62 83 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Bay Gardene, Louisiana, Tide feet

Gardner Island
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Wed -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:33 AM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:02 AM CDT     1.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:30 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:27 PM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:13 PM CDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
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Gardner Island, Breton Sound, Louisiana, Tide feet

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