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AMZ454 Expires:202312021030;;740325 Fzus52 Kjax 020109 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 809 pm est Fri dec 1 2023
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-021030- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 809 pm est Fri dec 1 2023
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. High pressure will build from the north, then northeast Monday.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 3 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas around 2 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 809 Pm Est Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
as high pressure moves further away to the east northeast tonight into Saturday, a warm front will lift northeast across region. A cold front will move southeast into the area Sunday, then pass to the southeast Sunday night. A secondary front will move southeast across the area late Monday into Monday night. High pressure will build to the west Tuesday, then to the northwest Wednesday.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 30, 2023 at 1200 utc...
51 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 020555 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1255 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 730 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Warm front will lay out west to east across the forecast area Tonight, roughly along the GA/FL line. Light rain showers have spread into the region on the nose of the warm front. Rain showers will continue to develop and move east northeast across the area Tonight, mainly along and north of the warm front, so primarily SE GA.

Fog potential will be limited by cloud coverage, but with a more warm and moist airmass moving in, development is expected. The most likely locations for fog will be along the coast, and near water ways and marshy areas.

It will be unseasonably mild Tonight, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 352 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Ahead of a shortwave trough digging into the central and southern plains, waves of shortwave energy will pass over the region. At the surface, a cold front will progress slowly eastward along the Gulf coast into the western FL panhandle on Saturday, with a prefrontal trough bringing rounds of showers over inland SE GA and into the Suwannee river valley. Despite mostly cloudy skies, some instability near 500 J/kg will be in place for isolated storm chances Saturday during the afternoon into early evening, but weak laps rates will likely limit strong thunderstorm potential. Highs will peak near 80 degrees along I-10, the lower 80s over NE FL and the mid to upper 70s over SE GA with light southerly winds.

Saturday night, the cold front will remain west of the area and showers will continue to be predominantly over far inland areas with only a few showers along the immediate coast. Clouds and light south to southwest winds will keep overnight temperatures mild in the mid to upper 60s, near record high minimum values.

Sunday, the initial shortwave trough will rotate ENE from the mid south into the OH valley and help to push the surface cold front into the area. This will allow greater rainfall coverage to slide east into Jacksonville and the coast where scattered to numerous showers should arrive by the late morning to early afternoon hours. There may be enough instability for isolated storms along and just ahead of the front in the afternoon, but cloudy skies combining with weak lapse rates should limit potential for stronger thunderstorms. Winds will become southwesterly and elevate to 10-20 mph as the front moves through the area. Heaviest rainfall totals will be north and west of Jacksonville where totals of 1.0-1.5 inches will be common with a quarter to a half inch more common south and east of highway 301. Highs will be a little lower compared to Saturday with mid to upper 70s over most areas to near 80 along the southern St Johns river basin.

Sunday night into Monday, Clouds will linger as the mid/upper trough deepens over the MS valley and allows low level SW to WSW flow to linger over the region before the trough swings through the deep south Monday with surface high pressure building in from the WNW. But, dry conditions are expected with cooler highs nearer to normal in the upper 60s over far inland SE GA to the low/mid 70s over NE FL and the coast.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 352 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

A drier pattern will be in store this period as broad mid/upper level troughing east of the MS river will persist as deep ridging migrates slowly through the week form the upper Midwest into the east coast. Skies will become mostly sunny as a dry cold front arrives early Wednesday with strong high pressure building in from the NW and settling into the TN valley by Thursday morning and then near our area by Friday morning. Winds will be breezy on Wednesday in the wake of the dry cold front.

Highs will be below normal Tuesday through Thursday, then warm to slightly below normal by Friday. Lows will be below normal through the week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

A tricky aviation forecast with periods of low flight conditions with some light showers around, with IFR currently happening around CRG and IFR at times. Other sites are either VFR cigs or MVFR vsby but IFR is possible through the early morning hours. Only expect vsby and cigs to lower through 12z even with a few light passing showers possible. The best chances for low conditions, possibly LIFR looks to be CRG, VQQ, and SGJ, through about 14z. Some conditional improvement by late morning, but MVFR cigs and scattered showers and potentially a few thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A good chance of low flight conditions down into the MVFR and IFR range by 05z Sunday.

MARINE
Issued at 352 PM EST Fri Dec 1 2023

Low pressure well west of the region and high pressure well east will yield southerly flow over the waters through Saturday, becoming more southwest Sunday as the low passes well north of the region. A cold front will sweep across the waters Sunday night and early Monday, shifting winds to northwest. Winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria through the forecast.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk NE FL, Low risk SE GA through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 75 66 74 56 / 60 80 80 10 SSI 74 64 74 60 / 30 50 50 10 JAX 79 66 77 61 / 30 30 60 20 SGJ 80 66 78 64 / 20 20 40 20 GNV 81 67 77 63 / 20 30 60 10 OCF 82 67 79 64 / 10 30 50 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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