Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Marineland, FL

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Sfc high pressure around 1022 mb is situated over central AL and GA Saturday morning with models showing an inverted sfc trough off the northeast FL and southeast GA coasts. NAM is more aggressive with the trough in terms of precip but seems overdone. The trough is supported by mid level troughing extending from eastern GA to the northeast GOMEX. The high will weaken while the trough lingers into the aftn, but should weaken as the mid level trough moves slowly east. Sufficient moisture and low level convergence around the sfc trough suggests some low POPs still around the coastal areas of northeast FL. Rest of the area remains dry. For this forecast update, along the coast, have adjusted POPs and sky cover up a bit based on the latest guidance from NBM and HRRR. North- northeast winds up to near 10-15 mph expected along the coast and gusty. Max temps of upper 70s near the coast and around 80-82 inland.

Sat night, the sfc trough will weaken and shift offshore so the only POPs shown are over the area waters but showers should dissipate overnight. The sfc high pres weakens to about 1020 mb and pushed further south into south GA, with the mid level trough still situated from SC to the northeast GOMEX, with deepest moisture well south across south FL. Dry and continued fairly cool overnight lows ranging from lower 50s inland southeast GA to lower to mid 60s for coastal northeast Fl.

Sunday-Sunday night, sfc high pressure ridge dominates over the area through Sunday night while shifting southeast through the area. To the north, a deepening mid/upper trough is expected across the eastern U.S., with an associated sfc cold front marching southeast into the Carolinas and northern GA with limited moisture. A warming trend ensues Sunday into the lower 80s most areas, with min temps a few degrees higher Sunday night but skies remain mostly clear.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

The cold front approaches the region from the north Monday as the sfc high pressure ridge moves to the south. Low level winds will be west to southwest with warm aftn temps Monday with max temps in the mid 80s. The cold front is forecast to move through mostly dry Monday night into Tuesday morning. Front is south of the area by Tuesday night with cool advection in its wake and sfc high pressure building in from the northwest. Sfc high pressure shifts to the TN valley Wed and Thu providing for dry conditions and a breezy north to northeast daytime winds for the region. Temperatures start this period near to slightly above average on Monday before quickly trending towards below normal approaching mid week.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period, with MVFR ceilings occurring over VQQ overnight and into early Friday morning. Variable overnight winds will build from out of the northeast with gustier winds along the coastal areas, with winds picking up again by 16Z-18Z.

MARINE
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Small craft advisory remains in effect today, with rough seas.
Initial wave guidance from NWPS was a bit too high by 2-3 ft so trimmed back closer to the WNA for 1st part of today. High pressure will continue to build from out of the northwest today as the gradient between the high and Milton keeps elevated conditions over area waters into tonight. The high pressure ridge will settle over the region this weekend with a cold front moving southeast across the area by Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Life-threatening surf and rip currents expected to continue through tonight. Additional rip current statements are likely Saturday and possibly into Sunday. Stay dry when the waves are high!

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 315 AM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Coastal Flood warning remains in effect for the St Johns River Basin and along the coast with moderate flooding levels primarily. Some major flooding likely along tributaries, with Deep Creek above major water level.

SE GA: Near major river flooding is ongoing along the Alapaha River in Statenville but is forecast to decrease gradually through the weekend. Sites along The Altamaha river at Charlotteville, Baxley, and Doctortown was falling from crests in Minor flood stage and should lower to below flood stage by late this week into this weekend. The Satilla at Atkinson is cresting in the lower minor stage the next couple of days.

NE FL: Due to Milton's heavy rainfall, a number of rivers are highly elevated. Portions of Black Creek are in minor flood stage but likely to come down today thru tonight. Parts of Santa Fe are in or forecast to reach minor flood stage over the next 1-2 days.
Local river interests, please continue to routinely monitor river forecasts over the coming days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 74 49 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 73 62 77 63 / 0 0 10 0 JAX 76 61 79 61 / 0 0 20 10 SGJ 78 67 79 67 / 0 10 30 10 GNV 78 59 80 59 / 0 0 10 0 OCF 81 62 82 63 / 0 0 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ033-038-125- 132-137-225-325.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-133- 138.

Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ133- 138.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166.

High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.