Monday, October21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marineland, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:49PM Monday October 21, 2019 4:35 AM EDT (08:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:32PM Illumination 48% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201910211645;;036736 Fzus52 Kjax 210803 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 403 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-211645- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 403 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Today..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday night..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds becoming 4 seconds after midnight. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night and Thursday..East northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 403 Am Edt Mon Oct 21 2019
Synopsis.. A warm front will lift up the florida peninsula today, then a cold front will cross the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. High pressure builds north of the region Wednesday, then northeast Thursday as a warm front lifts northward over florida. Moderate to strong north winds expected after the frontal passage Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another strong cold front will approach the area late Friday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of oct 19, 2019 at 1200 utc... 47 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 49 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 57 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 85 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marineland, FL
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location: 29.63, -81.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 210816
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
416 am edt Mon oct 21 2019

Near term [through tonight]
Areas of fog are expected this morning with a very light wind
flow regime and ample low level moisture... And anticipate fog to
dissipate by mid morning. As high pressure moves away from the
area to the east, a warm front across central fl will push
northward in response to large scale trough across the middle
part of the u.S. That is digging east-southeast. The warm front
will lift into northeast fl by this aftn and into southeast ga by
this evening. Rapid moisture influx with pwats of 2 inches and
locally high low level convergence along the front will allow for
scattered showers rains and embedded thunderstorms to develop.

Best rain chances are fcst for parts of northeast fl mainly to
the southeast of a line from fernandina beach to gainesville.

Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds are possible mainly around
st johns, putnam and flagler counties. Instability not overly
impressive but LI is -5 and mid level lapse rates are on the order
of 5-6 c km so a few thunderstorms are to be expected... With an
outside chance a strong storm could form given briefly favorable
environment of near 35 kt bulk shear and the low level convergence
along the warm front. MAX temps expected in the 80-85 deg range.

Tonight... The warm front will continue to lift northward and move
north of the forecast area after about 06z-09z, while another
cold front approaches the area. Scattered showers and some
isolated thunderstorms expected with the warm front, and then a
lull in the activity before the cold front moves toward the wrn
zones by early Tuesday morning. Above normal temps min temps
expected tonight. Appears some patchy fog will be possible with
relatively light winds in place ahead of the cold front.

Short term [Tuesday through Wednesday night]
Upper trough over the central u.S. Will move east pushing a cold
front across the area on Tuesday. A good chance of showers and
storms are expected ahead and along the front by afternoon as the
airmass destabilizes. Marginal instability along with deep shear
of 35-45 knots may result in isolated strong to severe storms.

Rain will come to an end Tuesday evening as the cold front pushes
south of the area. High pressure will build to the north of the
area behind the front on Wednesday advecting in a cooler and drier
air mass. Above normal temperatures ahead of the front will fall
to near average levels Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

Long term [Thursday through Sunday]
Another digging upper trough will move into the plains by late
week which will bring moisture and rain chances back to SE ga ne
fl. Models continue to differ with the evolution and movement of
this system so forecast confidence is low given the model spread.

Consensus shows rain chances continuing through the weekend with
temperatures at or above average.

Aviation
[through 06z Tuesday]
patchy fog possible for some of the inland tafs this morning with
MVFR possible until about 12z. Otherwise, increasing cloudiness
is expected through the day with increasing chances of showers and
an isolated thunderstorm for the northeast fl tafs. Timing of the
showers looks to be after 17z for kgnv and ksgj and then after
20z for jax metro tafs. Chances of MVFR with CIGS and vsby will be
possible with this activity. A few storms look to get going
around the same time frames but highest chances look to be at
kgnv and ksgj at this time. Precip chances will diminish after
about 01z-03z time frame. Winds will increase from the east to
southeast 10 kt or less today and then become south-southeast
tonight.

Marine
No headlines at this time as warm front lifts up through the area
waters during the day and evening hours. Showers likely and a few
storms this afternoon and into the evening hours. The next cold front
will pass through the waters late Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Brief scec and possible SCA conditions late Tuesday night into wed
in the wake of the cold front. High pressure north of the area
Thursday and stalled front to the south will maintain moderate
onshore winds and rough seas. Another front approaches the area
late Friday and winds expected to gradually veer to the southeast.

Rip currents: a low to moderate risk is anticipated today due to
light easterly swell activity and onshore flow.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 83 70 82 50 73 10 50 50 10 0
ssi 79 74 85 58 73 20 40 60 20 0
jax 83 73 87 57 75 50 50 60 20 0
sgj 82 74 87 62 75 60 40 60 30 0
gnv 84 73 86 58 76 60 40 60 10 0
ocf 86 73 87 61 78 60 30 40 10 10

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 2 mi110 min Calm 69°F 1016 hPa68°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 16 mi35 min ENE 7 G 8 76°F 78°F1014.7 hPa (-0.6)
41117 26 mi35 min 79°F2 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL24 mi39 minNW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F66°F93%1015 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSGJ

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmW3NW5NW4W3W3NW4NW5CalmCalmE6E4E4E6E6SE7SE5SE9SE12SE13SE17E15SE16SE9

Tide / Current Tables for Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Fort Matanzas, Matanzas River, ICWW, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.