Friday, February28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newberry, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:28PM Friday February 28, 2020 3:04 AM EST (08:04 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 10:57PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ765 Expires:202002280930;;204696 Fzus52 Ktae 280337 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1037 Pm Est Thu Feb 27 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-280930- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1037 Pm Est Thu Feb 27 2020 /937 Pm Cst Thu Feb 27 2020/
Overnight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..West winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..North winds 10 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1037 Pm Est Thu Feb 27 2020
Synopsis.. Northwest winds will increase to near advisory levels Friday night along with elevated seas into Saturday. Winds will become elevated again Monday with the approach of the next storm system, and remain elevated into at least Wednesday night. A period of small craft advisory conditions is likely during this time frame, with the potential for brief gale force gusts. In addition, the potential for fog will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday, especially Tuesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newberry, FL
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location: 29.64, -82.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 280650 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 150 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2020

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Today . After light freeze/frost over inland areas early this morning temps increase to around 60 degrees this afternoon under Sunny skies, still below normal levels for late February. West winds will increase ahead of approaching trof to 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph this afternoon.

Tonight . Trough passage expected from the NW with a brief period of clouds across SE GA otherwise Mostly Clear skies are expected with West winds remaining elevated in the 5-10 mph range which will keep temps from falling as low as this morning, with lows in the middle to upper 30s inland and lower 40s along the coast. The elevated winds and drier airmass should prevent much in the way of any patchy frost formation so have kept out of the forecast, but the slightly higher winds will produce some wind chill values down close to the freezing mark around sunrise Saturday Morning.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

Sat & Sat night . Breezy with passing clouds Sat as a couple of dry cold fronts sweep across the local area, mainly just reinforcing the cooler than normal and dry airmass in place across the deep south under deep layer NW flow. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected as highs rebound into the low/mid 60s across NE FL to near 60 toward the Altamaha River basin under breezy WNW winds 15-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph. Winds decrease Sat night as surface high builds over the area from the Gulf of Mexico and weak upper ridge builds over the SE region. Cool and dry airmass in place combined with ideal radiational cooling conditions will support low temps quickly falling into the low/mid 30s inland Sat night with a light inland freeze possible for parts of SE GA and inland frost extending southward across inland NE Florida.

Sun & Sun night . Airmass modifies with increasing moisture and temps as the surface ridge builds offshore of the local Atlantic coast and the upper ridge breaks down with increasing mid/high clouds later in the day and Sun night. Low level winds transition to SSE by Sun evening with high temperatures moderating into the mid/upper 60s inland to low 60s coast. Warming trend continues into Sun night with lows ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s inland to upper 40s/near 50 along the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday].

Mon & Tue . Warming trend continues high pressure east of the region and increasing southerly flow ahead of next approaching front. Chance of mainly coastal showers late Mon into Tue as warm front pivots northward over the local area with fog potential Mon night as dew pts increase and winds remain light. Highs will warm to near to above climo values in the 70s Mon and near 80 inland Tue with daily sea breezes keeping coastal locales a few deg cooler. Mins will also rebound above normal and range in the 50s Mon night to 60s Tue under elevated SSW winds through the night ahead of the front in the 15-20 mph and gusty near bodies of water.

Wed & Wed night . Breezy Wed morning ahead of approaching cold front with speeds 15-25 mph and gusts nearing 35-45 mph before convection arrives. Rain chances increase from west to east Wed afternoon into Wed evening with a fast moving pre-frontal squall line, likely weakening as it enters our forecast area with the surface low and upper trough lifting NE across TN River Valley and mid-Atlantic region. Dynamical shear is impressive with this system per the GFS20 with 0-6 km bulk shear 60-80 kts, however instability will be quite limited with surface based CAPE barely over 200 J/kg. Will indicate isolated t'storms at best with this system based on latest trends. Model guidance consensus suggests this will be the best shot of wetting rainfall over the next week with about 0.25-0.50 inches focused north of the I-10 corridor, with less than a quarter inch across most of NE FL. Highs warm into the low/mid 80s Wed ahead of the front with lows falling into the 50s trailing the frontal passage Wed night with clearing skies.

Thu & Fri . Dry, mild and stable as surface high pressure centered over the Gulf Coast states extends a ridge axis across the local area with only a shallow cold airmass in place. Temperatures will trend cooler back closer to climo values with highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s under mostly clear skies.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Saturday]

VFR through the period. West winds will increase to 10-12 knots with gusts of 15-18 knots during the afternoon hours from 16-22z.

MARINE.

A series of troughs will push through the waters tonight and Saturday and W to NW winds and seas to 20-25 knots/5-7 ft over the offshore waters and have posted SCA headlines there while likely SCEC headlines will be needed for the nearshore waters. Seas subside and winds become light and variable on Sunday as High builds directly over the local waters. Southerly winds develop on Monday as High pushes east of the waters into the Atlantic and then increase to possible SCA levels on Tuesday ahead of next frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER.

Dry and stable conditions as high pressure dominates over the western Gulf of Mexico and dry cold front pass over the local area tonight and again on Saturday. These fronts will not bring rainfall, but will bring passing clouds and reinforce the cooler, dry airmass in place through the weekend. Minimum RHs will near critical values through the weekend and generally range between 25-30%. West winds today will range between 10-15 mph this afternoon with gusts 15-20 mph near the St. Johns River basin and across parts of SE Georgia generally near the Altamaha River basin. NW winds will increase Saturday with speeds near 15 mph and gusts 25-30 mph which will also create high dispersion above 90 units for most areas. The limiting factor for red flag conditions will be elevated fuel moisture, with 10-hr fuel moisture expected to range between 9-10% across SE GA today and ERC values across NE Florida less than 20 units. Another inland freeze and frost event is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning.

HYDROLOGY.

Moderate Flooding continues on the Altamaha River basin. Minor Flooding has started on the Satilla River basin near Atkinson.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 60 35 59 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 SSI 59 43 59 39 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 JAX 62 40 63 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 SGJ 61 42 63 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 GNV 61 38 63 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 OCF 62 39 64 35 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Bradford- Eastern Alachua-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Northern Columbia-Southern Columbia-Suwannee-Union- Western Alachua.

GA . Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Appling-Atkinson- Bacon-Brantley-Clinch-Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Northeastern Charlton-Northern Ware-Pierce- Southern Ware-Wayne-Western Charlton.

AM . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM EST Saturday for Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 42 mi64 min N 4.1 G 6 47°F 1024.2 hPa (+0.0)33°F
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 55 mi64 min N 1 G 1.9 43°F 1024.7 hPa (+0.0)32°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 72 mi64 min NW 6 G 7 45°F 60°F1023.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gainesville Regional Airport, FL17 mi71 minNW 510.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1024.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGNV

Wind History from GNV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmS3NW10CalmCalmCalmW6NW12
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2 days agoSW6S7S6SE6CalmNE4SE6SE4SE5SE5S4SW7SW18
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Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:06 AM EST     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:06 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:56 PM EST     2.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:48 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:59 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.92.42.62.52.11.610.60.40.511.62.32.82.92.82.31.71.10.60.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:12 AM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:02 PM EST     2.90 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:54 PM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:00 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.21.82.32.62.52.11.610.60.40.50.91.52.22.72.92.82.31.81.10.60.20.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.