NEAR TERM
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight...The remainder of the spoke of energy should push through NE FL during the evening hours which may continue scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm activity a few hours past sunset. Otherwise expect decreasing rainfall chances and diminishing winds over inland areas, although breezy North to Northeast winds will continue through the night at Atlantic beachfront locations. Skies will continue at mostly cloudy levels and will prevent any significant fog formation, except for the usual patchy fog over inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor. Low temps in the upper 60s for inland SE GA, lower 70s for inland NE FL and middle 70s along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Prevailing flow will shift to become more out of the southwest during this period as low pressure off the coast drifts northward towards the Carolinas. Drier air will be pulled over northeast Florida by Tuesday night with PWAT values dropping from 2 inches to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches which is expected to result in less widespread convection by midweek, however potential for scattered to numerous showers and storms capable of producing localized heavy rainfall and flooding are still possible through the period.
High temperatures will gradually rise through the beginning of the week with max temps rising into the mid 80s over southeast Georgia and into the upper 80s for northeast Florida, by Tuesday.
Overnight low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The frontal boundary over the Florida peninsula will begin to shift southward through the forecast period as the associated upper level low begins to shift south along the eastern CONUS and Atlantic waters. Drier air (PWATs 1.2" - 1.5") moves into the area during the back half of the upcoming week as the upper level low shifts south. Lower precipitation chances, with PoPs mainly in the 45% to 60% range, on Wednesday will steadily drop to the 25% to 45% range by the upcoming weekend. Daytime temperatures in the upper 80s for latter half of the week, with highs getting to the low to mid 80s by the weekend. Overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 804 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A front will be slung southward by a weak tropical low pressure gathering to the northeast. Waves of very light rain and drizzle will continue with ceilings prevailing around 1-1.5 kft through the rest of the evening. Ceilings will being to fall to IFR levels after 06z, followed by improvements an hour or two after sunrise Monday. Breezy north winds, with gusts hanging on through around 02z, will deter any potential for fog development. By 18z Monday, stratus will lift toward VFR with clouds beginning to scatter out with the passage of trailing post-frontal trough during the late afternoon Monday. A few showers may develop at sites south of KJAX Monday afternoon but instability appears too marginal to support TSRA.

MARINE
Issued at 205 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Low pressure will continue to organize over the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to the Carolina coastline, with this feature potentially acquiring tropical characteristics as it pushes northward towards the Carolina coast on Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will develop across our local waters through Monday night. Winds will shift to northwesterly on Monday night while diminishing, with seas then gradually diminishing through midweek. Otherwise, a frontal boundary positioned across the Florida peninsula will lift northward over the northeast Florida waters on Wednesday, keeping chances for mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms in place. This front will then shift south of our local waters late this week.

Rip Currents: High risk for all area beaches today and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 82 68 81 66 / 60 20 20 10 SSI 81 72 82 71 / 50 30 20 20 JAX 84 71 84 70 / 50 30 30 20 SGJ 85 73 85 73 / 30 30 40 20 GNV 86 71 85 69 / 40 20 50 30 OCF 88 71 87 71 / 40 20 50 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ033-038-124- 125-132-133-137-138-325.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ154-166.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454- 470-472-474.