Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newberry, FL

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts a strong cold front moving across north central and coastal northeast FL and extending northward along the U.S. eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, arctic high pressure (1038 millibars) was building southward from the northern Plains states and Upper Midwest
Aloft
a potent shortwave trough pivoting across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley continues to carve out a deep longwave trough over the eastern two-thirds of the nation. Widely scattered showers located along the cold front were moving across north central FL and southern portions of the St.
Johns River basin, with stratocumulus clouds in the immediate wake of the frontal passage exiting coastal southeast GA and lingering along the I-95 corridor in northeast FL and the I-75 corridor in north central FL. Skies were otherwise clearing quickly from northwest to southeast in the wake of the frontal passage, with cold air advection dropping temperatures into the upper 40s for locations north and west of Waycross in southeast GA, where dewpoints were plunging through the 30s. Temperatures and dewpoints remain in the 60s for portions of coastal northeast FL and north central FL along and just ahead of the cold front at 07Z.

NEAR TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Potent shortwave troughing will dig southeastward from the Ohio Valley this morning and across the southern Appalachians this afternoon, with this feature then pivoting eastward towards the coastal Carolina region tonight. Troughing aloft will continue to deepen to the south of this feature over our region today, ushering in an unseasonably cold and exceptionally dry air mass.
Breezy northwesterly winds will drop temperatures into the 40s for most locations by sunrise, with a few upper 30s possible for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA. Low temperatures may only fall to the lower 50s for portions of north central and coastal northeast FL. Gusty northwesterly winds will drop wind chill values into the 30s by sunrise for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor, with 40s expected elsewhere by early Tuesday morning.

Despite full sunshine, gusty northwesterly winds and strong cold air advection will keep highs in the 50-55 range today for southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley and 55-60 elsewhere. Winds will frequently gust to 20-30 mph through mid-afternoon before lulling slightly later this afternoon inland.
Dewpoints will crash to near daily record lows this afternoon, with teens expected for inland southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley and 20s extending all the way to coastal locations and most of north central FL, which is an indicator of the arctic origin of this air mass that will be advecting into our area today and tonight.

The axis of the longwave trough over the eastern U.S. will pivot through our region tonight, with arctic surface high pressure only gradually weakening as it pivots eastward from the Southern Plains and across the lower Mississippi Valley. A tight local pressure gradient will remain in place, keeping breezy northwesterly winds in place through the night inland and windy conditions ongoing at coastal locations, where speeds will likely remain in the 15-25 mph range overnight, with occasional gusts around 35 mph possible through the predawn hours. Our local pressure gradient will begin to loosen at inland locations towards sunrise, but speeds will likely remain high enough to drop wind chill values to around the threshold for Cold Weather Advisory (20 degrees) for southeast GA, especially away from the immediate coast. Cold Weather Advisory criteria (25 degrees or lower) will otherwise be met for all of northeast and north central FL by the predawn hours on Tuesday. Surface temperatures will fall below freezing just after midnight for inland southeast GA and during the predawn hours for coastal southeast GA and for locations immediately west of the banks of the St. Johns River in northeast and north central FL. Breezy surface winds will likely keep lows in the upper 30s for inland locations along and north of I-10, with lower 30s elsewhere, except mid 30s for coastal northeast FL and for metro areas such as downtown Jacksonville. Enough wind will continue into the early morning hours on Tuesday to prevent significant frost formation.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday, axis of the deep upper trough will shift east northeast off the Mid Atlantic/New England coastline with ridging aloft in it's wake settling east of the lower and mid MS river valley while a shortwave impulse races from the plains to the OH valley. Brisk northwesterly winds 10-15 mph and westerly flow aloft will provide strong cold air advection through the day with highs about 15-20 degrees below normal in the low 50s over SE GA and the mid 50s over NE FL. These values will be near or exceed daily record low maximum values (see climate section for details).

Tuesday Night, clear skies and near calm winds underneath strong surface high pressure near 1028 mb will support strong radiational cooling overnight that will lead to another freeze for most of NE FL west of US17 and just west of downtown Jacksonville with lows moderating to the low 30s from the St Johns river to the immediate SE GA coast and areas along east of I-95 in NE FL. The dewpoints will recover into the 20s compared to the teens from Monday night and Tuesday with enough low level moisture providing for widespread frost event inland with patchy to areas of frost along I-95 north of downtown and the Ocala National Forest while staying generally frost free along the coast.

Wednesday, high pressure will slowly weaken with the high's center settling southward into the NE Gulf waters and into north central FL. Light westerly winds 5-10 mph over NE FL will become more west southwest into SE GA under sunny skies as the atmosphere remains too dry for clouds. Highs will rebound under the sunshine and rising heights into the upper 60s, creating much more comfortable temps compared to Tuesday, but still around 5-8 degrees below normal.

Wednesday night, with cold air advection ceasing amid zonal flow aloft and high pressure weakening across southern portions of the area, radiational cooling will not be as strong. Lows will fall below normal about 10-15 degrees below normal inland to the upper 30s to low 40s, but moderate along the coast to the 45-50 degree range, only about 5-10 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Thursday, a dry cold front will press south through the area with winds turning northwest but remaining light under sunny skies as another high pressure center builds in from the north through Friday with dry conditions continuing. However moisture levels will recover to near normal levels around 1.00 inch.

This weekend, the high will shift slowly into the western Atlantic waters off the eastern seaboard with winds shifting easterly on Saturday. Sunday, a developing shortwave trough over the southern MS valley will develop a surface low pressure center that will shift rainfall into the deep south later in the day. Isolated to scattered showers will slide into the western half of the area with southerly winds increasing ahead of the system as the high moves away to the east. Rainfall amounts at this time are not settled due to timing and placement differences in the global models with this system.

Temperatures will begin near normal Thursday into Friday and warm to slightly above normal this weekend while lows begin a little below normal Friday and Saturday morning before rising to near to above normal Sunday and Monday mornings.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail at SGJ through around 07Z, with a brief shower possible. VFR conditions will then prevail area-wide by 08Z. Northwesterly surface winds will develop by 08Z at the regional terminals, with speeds increasing to around 15 knots, with frequent 20-25 knots gusts expected after 13Z. Surface winds may shift slightly to west-northwesterly after 17Z, with speeds decreasing to 10-15 knots at the inland terminals by 22Z. Speeds will remain sustained around 15 knots and gusty at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals on Monday night.

MARINE
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

A strong cold front is crossing our local waters overnight, with winds abruptly shifting to northwesterly and increasing to Small Craft Advisory levels of 20-25 knots currently. Occasional Gale Force wind gusts will be possible during the predawn and morning hours on Monday. Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states on Monday will result in frequent Gale Force wind gusts from late Monday afternoon through around sunrise throughout our local waters, and Gale Warnings have been issued.
Seas will build to 3-5 feet near shore today and to Small Craft Advisory levels of 5-8 feet offshore. Seas will reach Small Craft Advisory levels for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL tonight, peaking in the 5-7 foot range during the predawn and morning hours on Tuesday. Seas offshore will peak in the 7-11 foot range later tonight and early Tuesday morning.

High pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday, with strong northwesterly winds on Tuesday morning gradually diminishing during the afternoon hours. Winds and seas will subside below Small Craft Advisory levels for the Georgia waters and the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL by early Tuesday afternoon, with winds and seas falling below Small Craft Advisory levels for the offshore waters adjacent to northeast FL towards sunset on Tuesday evening. High pressure will then become centered directly over our local waters by late Tuesday night and Wednesday, allowing for a rapid decrease in speeds and seas. High pressure will then shift southward over the Florida peninsula on Thursday ahead of a weakening dry frontal boundary that will push southward across our area on Thursday afternoon and evening, with breezy westerly winds possible for the offshore waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure building in from the northwest will deliver a very dry airmass with unseasonably cold temperatures arriving this evening through Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Brisk northwest winds 10-15 mph will pick up after by mid morning to 15-25 mph gusting to 30-35 mph and coupled with dewpoints crashing into the 20s/teens will lower MinRH values below critical levels. A Red Flag Warning will go into effect late this morning into this afternoon for our inland Northeast FL areas north where Min RH values fall to the mid 20s and significant fire weather potential is heightened. In addition, breezy surface and transport winds will also yield high daytime dispersions today.

High Pressure will then shift over the region by Tuesday and after a chilly start, afternoon MinRH values will fall below critical levels into the low to mid 20s, then repeating again Wednesday afternoon as high pressure slowly weakens over the region, but light winds should remove potential for a Fire Weather Watch. The high will settle south of the area early Thursday as a dry cold front moves in from the north with a brief increase in transport winds helping bring good to high level dispersions over the area as high pressure rebuilds north of the area. Moisture levels will recover above critical levels Thursday through the weekend with a return of scattered showers by Sunday as another storm system moves in from the west.

CLIMATE
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Record low maximum temperatures for Tuesday:

KJAX: 53/1917 KCRG: 59/1996 KGNV: 55/1953 KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11: KJAX: 35/1977 KCRG: 37/1991 KGNV: 31/1943 KAMG: 27/1943

November 12: KJAX: 31/2011 KCRG: 35/2011 KGNV: 30/2011 KAMG: 27/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 52 28 52 28 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 55 32 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 58 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 60 36 55 38 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 59 31 56 31 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 60 31 56 32 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-125-132-136- 137-220-225-232-236-237-322-325-422-425-522.

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225- 232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021- 023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225- 232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ450- 452-454-470-472-474.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450.

Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452- 454.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ470.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ472- 474.