Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Newberry, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Scattered Locally Heavy Downpours this Morning for Coastal Southeast GA and Northeast FL. Additional Rainfall Amounts Up to One Inch Possible.

- High Risk for Rip Currents Continues Today at All Area Beaches.

A broad surface low pressure center is slowly pivoting eastward across the NE Gulf waters to the west coast of the FL peninsula as a mid/upper level shortwave crawls east across southern GA to the GA coast, beginning to be pushed by an amplifying upstream trough centered over northern MI southward across the Midwest states into the OH valley. Very high moisture levels indicated by PWATs around 1.80 (noted from the evening 00Z Upper Air Sounding) and isentropic lift from the the mid/upper trough is producing very heavy rain showers with isolated T'storms along the coast just north of Jacksonville to Kingsland, St Marys, Cumberland Island, Jekyll Island to the Brunswick area where pockets of up to 3 to 5 inches of rain has fallen overnight into early this morning.

Today, the mid/upper level trough will emerge into the Atlantic coastal waters late this morning and exit to the east by this afternoon. Another surface low will form near the southern NE FL coastal waters and move east northeastward. Flow between the low and weakening high pressure ridging from the Atlantic into the Carolinas will bring breezy northeasterly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 20-25 mph. Coastal convergent bands will begin to wane late this morning and partial sunshine through lifting low cloud cover will allow for isolated to widely scattered T'storms as the Atlantic seabreeze moves well inland in the onshore flow. The T'storms will be battling dry air above 700mb (10,000 ft) as some drier air wraps around the departing low and will move south to southwest with locally heavy downpours, lightning and wind gusts to 40 mph possible. Heaviest rainfall totals of up to 1-3 inches expected through late morning with only spotty totals of a tenth of an inch to a half inch where T'storms develop this afternoon.

Highs today will be largely dictated by cloud cover with upper 70s over a majority of the area along and north of I-10 and the low 80s southward into north central FL.

Tonight drier air and clearing skies expected as a dry cold front approaches from the northwest. Lows will be in the upper 50s over inland SE GA and the low 60s over inland NE FL with mid 60s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Drier conditions return behind a dry cold front.

- Warmer temperatures into the weekend.

Clearer skies settle over the area behind the passage of a dry cold front on Thursday. Northwesterly winds will usher in drier air into the region, bringing RHs values to near critical levels for interior locations of SE GA on Thursday, with near critical levels extending towards FL/GA state line on Friday.
With drier air in place, chances of showers or storms will be limited through the the end of the week. With clearer skies on Thursday, temperatures will gradually warm up heading into the weekend. Daytime highs rise to the lower 80s across SE GA and the mid/upper 80s across NE FL on Thursday. Clear to Partly cloudy skies on Friday as highs continue to trend a bit higher across the region, with a few locations possibly reaching into the 90s along north central FL. By the evening hours, Lows will dip down into the mid 50s for SE GA and the upper 50s to lower 60s across NE FL on Thursday night. A bit warmer overnight Lows by Friday night, with most locations falling only into the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Above normal Temperatures this weekend.

A period of dry conditions through the weekend and into next week as high pressure settles over the eastern sea board. A persistent onshore flow could bring a few showers/storms along the Atlantic sea breeze as it pushes inland, but not expecting the same coverage as earlier in the week. Warmer temperatures are expect this period with near normal temperatures during the end of the week with temperatures in the 80s, with a few locations in the 90s over north central FL. By the weekend, temperatures will rise to above normal as most locations rise above the 90F mark, with coastal locations in the 80s thanks to the onshore flow.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

IFR to low MVFR ceilings between 500 and 1,200 feet will continue at the regional terminals through around 15Z.
Ceilings will gradually lift to MVFR levels of 1,500 - 3,000 feet after 16Z, followed by VFR conditions towards 00Z Thursday.
Periods of showers will be possible through around 23Z at the regional terminals, but confidence in restrictions due to briefly moderate to heavy showers is too low to indicate anything other than vicinity coverage at this time. Confidence was low enough to drop thunderstorm coverage from the regional terminal TAFs for the 12Z cycle. Periods of IFR visibilities will likely develop at VQQ after 06Z Thursday. Visibility restrictions will be possible elsewhere towards the end of this TAF period, but confidence was too low to indicate these potential restrictions at this time. Northeasterly surface winds sustained around 10 knots will continue at SSI through around 00Z, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then northwesterly overnight, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots.
Northerly surface winds elsewhere sustained at 5-10 knots will shift to northeasterly around 10 knots after 18Z, followed by winds shifting to northerly and then westerly overnight, with speeds diminishing to 5-10 knots after 00Z.

MARINE

Frontal boundary will be south of the waters today as a wave of low pressure moves into the coastal east central FL waters.
High pressure ridge axis extending from the Atlantic into the Carolinas will weaken as the high departs east into the Atlantic. Winds from the east today will decrease into the afternoon and turn more northeasterly as the low moves east northeastward into early this evening. Decreasing winds and seas will end small craft advisory conditions nearshore this afternoon and offshore by this evening. Numerous showers and isolated T'storms over the waters will also diminish steadily through the afternoon hours as the low exits to the east.

A dry cold front will approach the waters late tonight and exit early Thursday morning with high pressure building in from the northwest with breezy northwest winds nearing exercise caution levels. The high will build to the north on Friday and then to the east northeast this weekend with dry conditions and daily seabreeze circulation increasing winds nearshore.

Rip Currents:

A high risk is in effect today for all area beaches for breezy onshore winds and elevated surf heights of 4-6 feet at the northeast FL beaches and 3-5 feet at the southeast GA beaches this morning. Surf heights will diminish on Thursday, with a moderate risk anticipated at the northeast FL beaches and possibly a low risk at the southeast GA beaches as surf falls to around 2 feet or less.

FIRE WEATHER

- High Dispersions Area-Wide Thursday

- Near Critically Low Daytime Humidity Vales Thursday and Friday over Inland Southeast GA.

Northeast winds will continue into midweek as high pressure begins to shift away from the area ahead of a dry cold front.
With the continuing onshore flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will push in towards inland locations by this afternoon, with scattered to numerous showers possible along the boundary. Winds shift to become more northwesterly with the dry cold front tonight. Drier air will limit any chances of showers or storms through the upcoming weekend. Near critical daytime minRH values will develop on Thursday and Friday afternoons for locations across inland SE GA. Elevated mixing heights will also bring high dispersions area-wide on Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 78 59 80 54 / 30 10 0 0 SSI 75 64 84 63 / 60 0 0 0 JAX 77 62 86 57 / 60 10 0 0 SGJ 78 66 87 64 / 60 10 0 0 GNV 81 62 86 57 / 40 10 0 0 OCF 82 64 86 61 / 40 10 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 125-138-233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ472- 474.