Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday August 25, 2019 10:18 AM CDT (15:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:42AMMoonset 2:57PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Expires:201908252115;;175248 Fzus54 Khgx 250829 Cwfhgx Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Houston/galveston Tx 329 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019 Upper Texas Coastal Waters From High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 10 Percent Of The Waves. Gmz330-335-252115- Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 329 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. A chance of showers after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..South winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 329 Am Cdt Sun Aug 25 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Showers and storms will be possible across the coastal waters of the upper texas coast today. A weak to moderate onshore wind pattern will persist over the next several days, producing relatively low seas and smooth to slightly choppy conditions in the bays. Precipitation chances decrease by mid- week as high pressure begins to build into the region tomorrow.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 251113
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
613 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019

Aviation [12z TAF issuance]
Today's environment looks rather similar to yesterday's, so going
with what is not significantly different from a persistence
forecast. Not a ton of confidence in how widespread showers and
storms today will be - but will gamble that, like yesterday, the
bulk of numerous heavier storms will be offshore and towards
louisiana, leaving lesser activity over land around the terminals.

It won't be totally dry, and looking for best bets closer to the
coast and trailing off as you go inland. Lots of moisture in place
though, so if offshore complex does not dominate again today, may
have to ramp up shower and storm potential on short notice.

Prev discussion issued 411 am cdt Sun aug 25 2019
Discussion
- one more day of shower thunderstorm activity along the coast and
just inland today. Locally heavy rainfall possible.

- upper level ridge builds Monday Tuesday and we will need to
monitor heat index values for heat advisory for these days.

- ridging breaks down through the end of the week. Possible front
Thursday and then maybe stronger front by weekend (ecmwf cmc).

- TS dorian in atlantic. No threat to the gulf.

Short term [today and tonight]
Satellite shows that parts of the area are clearing out late
tonight, while a good chunk of the central portion of our area
remains under a thick veil of cirrus, associated with convection
that has been slowly drifting westward through the evening and
nighttime hours. This convection has stubbornly not died yet, but
is slowly waning as it is passing by college station.

Meanwhile, an upper trough still sits just offshore over the
northwest gulf off the coast of louisiana. The structure in water
vapor imagery isn't quite as impressive as it begins interacting
with a northern stream trough pivoting through the upper midwest,
but it's still managing to produce showers and thunderstorms over
the gulf of mexico.

Without a real big change in environment, the forecast for today
and tonight largely looks like a persistence forecast. Highest
pops are restricted to the offshore waters, where it seems a fair
expectation that it will rob land areas of showers and storms
through the day. Given the plentiful moisture that has bled over
southeast texas, I do have some fairly decent rain chances near
the coast, but hopefully i've learned something from last night
and went with more modest pops farther inland.

Along with the lower rain chances, i'll mirror Saturday's
temperatures fairly closely, with high temps near 90 at the coast,
and well into the 90s far inland. There's probably more to be
said about this being a lead-in for further discussion on the
heat, but will leave that for the long term section to follow.

Luchs

Long term [Monday through Sunday]
Upper level ridge now over the desert SW back into the pacific
should edge east Monday through Tuesday with some positive height
anomalies over texas by Wednesday. This should lower precip
chances over the area and allow for high temperatures back into
the upper 90s to low 100s. Humidity levels remain high due to
lingering moisture from the weekend. Heat index values could reach
110f again for a good portion of the area. We may need to issue a
heat advisory for Monday and quite possibly Tuesday.

Wednesday into Thursday the gfs ECMWF continue to show some type
of front to move into the area from the ne. It will be weak but
still possibly cause some shower and storms to form. For now will
keep with 20 30 pops each day and high temperatures down just a
touch. Extended range models are still trying to latch onto the
idea of a slightly stronger front getting into SE texas. ECMWF and
ensemble have a more favorable pattern for a frontal push but
this seems to be a recent trend. With this being a day 8 forecast,
we will just have to wait see how the details shake out in future
model runs.

Overpeck

Marine
Southerly winds should continue the next couple of days with
stronger winds at night for tonight and Monday night. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should continue today but decrease tomorrow
and Tuesday. Winds and seas then slack off slightly the rest of
the week with little marine impacts.

Tropical
As expected, tropical storm dorian has formed in the atlantic. It
has a small compact center and rather ragged poor convection
around it. Overall forecast remains unchanged from the previous
advisory. There will be some subtle fluctuations in intensity over
the next couple of days as it tries to organize and fight off dry
air. There should be no impacts to the gulf from TS dorian.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 98 79 101 79 101 20 0 10 0 10
houston (iah) 94 80 97 80 98 60 10 10 10 10
galveston (gls) 89 84 91 85 91 60 30 30 10 10

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Short term... Luchs
long term... Overpeck
aviation... Luchs
marine... Overpeck
tropical... Overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi49 min WSW 5.1 G 8 84°F 87°F1012 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi49 min SW 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 85°F1011.5 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi49 min SW 1 G 1.9 84°F 88°F1011.6 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi55 min N 1.9 G 1.9 86°F 86°F1011.1 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi49 min N 2.9 G 4.1 85°F 85°F1011.6 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi49 min W 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 86°F1011.9 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi49 min N 4.1 G 5.1 84°F 85°F1012.3 hPa
HIST2 32 mi55 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 83°F 86°F1011.8 hPa
KXIH 40 mi44 min 5.1 86°F 77°F
LUIT2 40 mi49 min SW 6 G 8.9 84°F 85°F1011.9 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi39 min S 5.8 G 7.8 85°F 1013.2 hPa80°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 46 mi139 min SW 7.8 G 14 86°F1011.4 hPa (+0.8)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi2.5 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1011.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi86 minW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1012.4 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi86 minWSW 310.00 miA Few Clouds82°F77°F85%1012.4 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi24 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy88°F77°F70%1012.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE7SE7--CalmS5S8S10S9S7S5S5SE3S3SW6----Calm--SE3CalmCalm--S5
1 day agoCalmS7E8SE5SE4E5--E5E5SE5E3SE3E2S2E2CalmNW2NW2NE2NE1NE3N6NE3N6
2 days agoE5SE5SE4E6SE9SE10SE12SE11E9SE7SE7--SE3S3CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:20 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:17 AM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.10.20.30.40.60.70.90.911110.90.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:52 AM CDT     1.73 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 01:42 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:52 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:26 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:24 PM CDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:09 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.71.61.30.90.60.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.2-1.5-1.7-1.9-1.9-1.7-1.3-0.8-0.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.