Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 15, 2020 5:04 AM CDT (10:04 UTC) Moonrise 2:05AMMoonset 4:34PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 353 Am Cdt Sat Aug 15 2020
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms late.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds around 5 knots becoming west after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 353 Am Cdt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. High pressure situated across the northern gulf will maintain light to occasionally moderate south to southwest winds and low seas through the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to move into into the nearshore waters on Monday. Periods of unsettled weather can be expected in advance of and along this boundary as it lingers over the region.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 150847 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 347 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2020

DISCUSSION.

We are square in what is climatologically the hottest part of the year across Southeast Texas. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the atmosphere has decided this is the perfect time to be abnormally hot because 2020 is extra like that. Our stretch of heat advisories area-wide continues through at least today, as an upper disturbance from the east looks to fizzle out before reaching our area.

The need for the heat advisory to continue through tomorrow is a little fuzzier. A well-timed upper disturbance could cause showers and thunderstorms to erupt Sunday afternoon, chopping down the heat and any requirement for a heat advisory. If that doesn't happen . well . repeat the heat. Given the uncertainty in the potential for convection, we have opted to hold off on extending the heat advisory again for now.

Beyond that, we're still looking for a weak cold front to droop into the area early next week. The word to emphasize here is "weak" over "cold", so don't get too excited. Models are building confidence in some drier air pushing partially into the area for mid-week, which would at least give some folks in the north a couple cooler mornings. Regardless, the arrival of this front will signal a more active period deeper into next week, with better potential for showers and storms.

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday].

Satellite imagery shows some scattered high clouds are beginning to drift in from the east, as an upper disturbance is generating some showers and thunderstorms over Mississippi and Louisiana. We'll be keeping an eye to our east for any showers and storms this afternoon. Most of the model guidance keeps things dry - likely because of increasing subsidence as an upper ridge over the western US strengthen - but a couple HREF members do manage to get some showers going in our east. So there are some very, very low rain chances east of Houston, though they aren't much higher than zero.

All of this probably indicates strongly that we'll get plenty hot again today after a start in the upper 70s to lower 80s yet again this morning. Yesterday we mixed out pretty well, and so we saw some cracks in the wall of 108 degree-plus heat index peaks. I'd expect to see that again today, so not everyone should look to reach that 108 degree heat index threshold, but it will be widespread enough that the heat advisory is definitely still needed. Additionally, those with the hottest heat index in the area will probably reach into the 110-112 degree range. Also, for those that do mix out more, the air temperature should rise more effectively. Triple digit highs also may be fairly common away from the coast, and spots in the northwest like Caldwell, Bryan, and College Station, could hit the air temperature threshold for the heat advisory, even if the heat index doesn't quite pan out.

Now . tomorrow . things start to get a little interesting. Depending on just how strong the western ridge gets, a subtle shortwave trough may be lined up to roll right through our area. And if the timing is right, it would be just in time to support the development of some afternoon showers and storms! The HREF CAM ensemble actually seems to indicate this is rather probable. Additionally, the 18Z Texas Tech WRF was very gung ho about this as well. If it all pans out like this, clouds and rain would probably cut off the rising temps before we would need another heat advisory.

But uh . here's the thing. As the evening shift so wisely noted on their way out, the 00Z Texas Tech WRF is pretending it never had this whole idea. Ask the NAM about it, and the response is "LOLNO" as it focuses convection far to our northwest. And while the GFS and Euro kinda hint at some light precip Sunday afternoon/evening, it's not full-throated support. So since I need to make a deterministic forecast here, I will hedge with some slight chance PoPs across the area Sunday afternoon, but my temperature and heat index forecast assumes we are stuck with the heat. If confidence in rain goes up, look for the temp/HI numbers to get brought down. If confidence in rain goes down, temp/HI will stay up and PoPs will disappear.


LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday].

Fortunately, there is a light at the end of this hot tunnel, and it's not even a train's headlight! Yes, the weak front we've been hoping would not disappear from model solutions looks like more of a sure thing as we get closer to its passage through the area on Monday. As we've been cautioning for some time, this is not one of those solid, "hint of fall" kind of fronts yet. It is still mid- August. This will be a pretty weak front, and cooling will come just as much (or more!) from drier air allowing us to start the day from a cooler floor than from the advection of any real cooler air into the region.

Happily for those inland (probably north of Houston though), the GFS is starting to get on board with the Euro on dewpoints in the upper 50s behind this front. I hold the forecast dewpoints around 60 degrees there as dewpoints that low in mid-August is fairly unusual, but even that will be a relief. That relief won't really make it down here to the coastal counties, but I'm sure that drier air will be very pleasant for those that get to see it. I'm totally happy for you and not bitterly jealous or anything.

As far as rain goes, while confidence is pretty high for at least some showers and storms to crop up on/near this front, we'll still be battling subsident influence from the beefy upper ridge over the Great Basin, so I'm not looking for a big, organized QLCS here. As a result, I'm hesitant to let PoPs drift any higher than 40 percent at the wettest.

The effect of this front into the middle week is to see conditions get hacked back down to more seasonable values. This is, of course, still pretty hot, but is at least more typical. Onshore flow will return for the late week, but relatively seasonable conditions should remain. While that big upper ridge persists over the west, a compensating upper trough deepens over the eastern US, and we look to be locked between the two deep into next week. This will likely keep us from drifting too far in either direction, with continued chances of showers and storms occasionally as shortwave troughs round through the area. How could this forecast bust? Well, if this balance doesn't hold, and we begin to see stronger influence from either the ridge or the trough, things could shift to hotter and drier (ridge wins) or not quite as hot (trough wins).

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance].

VFR conditions are expected tonight. Cirrus associated with convection over the panhandle will move over the region later tonight or early Saturday and some mid level clouds developing over LA will also scoot west and affect area TAF sites. The cirrus might blunt low cloud development over the NW zones so will keep conds VFR. Winds will veer to the S-SW later tonight and back to the S-SE by Saturday aftn.

MARINE.

Look for diurnal patterns to continue until some offshore winds come into the picture with the arrival of the advertised weak cold front on Monday. This front will wash out quickly, with onshore flow and the seasonal pattern returning quickly. Additionally, we should see nocturnal showers be a little more productive deeper into next week.

CLIMATE.

In what is becoming a bit of a broken record (again), Galveston tied its daily record high min temp yesterday. Considering the record high min for today is again 84 and it is 86 degrees just before 4 am, that record is on the table again today.

As temperatures drift up, we'll also have to start eyeing record highs more carefully. At IAH, the record high is 101, and the forecast high is 102. Hobby's record is also 101, with a forecast of 100. Though forecast at 103, College Station's record is likely safe as it is an impressive 106 degrees. Similarly, records should be safe on the Island, where Galveston's record is 96, and onshore flow should keep the high a little bit below that mark.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

College Station (CLL) 103 77 103 76 98 / 10 10 20 20 40 Houston (IAH) 102 79 102 79 98 / 10 10 20 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 93 83 93 83 94 / 10 10 20 20 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.

TX . Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following zones: Austin . Brazoria Islands . Brazos . Burleson . Chambers . Coastal Brazoria . Coastal Galveston . Coastal Harris . Coastal Jackson . Coastal Matagorda . Colorado . Fort Bend . Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula . Grimes . Houston . Inland Brazoria . Inland Galveston . Inland Harris . Inland Jackson . Inland Matagorda . Madison . Matagorda Islands . Montgomery . Northern Liberty . Polk . San Jacinto . Southern Liberty . Trinity . Walker . Waller . Washington . Wharton.

GM . None.



DISCUSSION . Luchs SHORT TERM . Luchs LONG TERM . Luchs AVIATION . 43 MARINE . Luchs CLIMATE . Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi47 min SW 4.1 G 8.9 89°F1013 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi47 min SW 6 G 9.9 88°F1012.7 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi47 min SSW 4.1 G 8.9 91°F1012.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi53 min SSW 13 G 16 86°F1012.1 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi47 min SW 11 G 13 88°F1012.5 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 12 90°F1012.8 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi47 min SW 6 G 11 85°F1013.2 hPa
HIST2 32 mi47 min SSW 5.1 G 8.9 90°F1012.7 hPa
LUIT2 40 mi47 min SSW 7 G 11 86°F1014.5 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi35 min SW 12 G 16 86°F 87°F1012.5 hPa81°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 46 mi125 min SSW 12 G 14 87°F1013.7 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi75 minS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1012.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi72 minSSW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F75°F85%1013.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi72 minS 310.00 miFair80°F75°F85%1013.6 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi70 minSW 8 G 1510.00 miFair81°F75°F84%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW4SW4SW8SW8SW8SW6--S8S8SE5S5S15S15S15S10S8S6S5S3CalmCalmS4S4
1 day agoS4S4SW4W5SW7SW5S8S4SW4CalmS8S12SE12S11SE9S7S8S10S7S6S6S5SW3SW4
2 days agoSW4SW4SW4SW4SW4SW4S4SW4SW4CalmS10SE11S14S13S13S10S10S6S6S6SE2Calm--S4

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:12 AM CDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:45 AM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10-0-00.10.20.40.60.80.91110.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:58 AM CDT     1.75 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:20 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:32 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 PM CDT     -1.88 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.31.61.81.71.41.20.90.70.50.1-0.2-0.5-0.7-0.9-1.1-1.4-1.6-1.8-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.2-0.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.