Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:50PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 1:26 AM CST (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 5:26AMMoonset 3:56PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 933 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Patchy fog in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds around 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Scattered showers.
Sunday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. Scattered showers.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 933 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Southeast winds will continue to increase this evening. By tomorrow afternoon wind speeds will increase to around 20 to 25 knots over the nearshore and offshore waters while seas will build to 7 to 10 feet. As a result a small craft advisory has been issued beginning at 9am Wednesday and lasting until 1am Thursday. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms will spread over the upper texas coast during the afternoon on Wednesday as a storm system approaches. The greatest chance for any Thunderstorms will come during the nighttime hours on Wednesday. The storm system should move out of the area Thursday morning with a cold front pushing through the area Thursday afternoon. Following this we will see winds shift offshore. Increased winds behind the front may necessitate caution flags or advisories. Winds and seas look to diminish heading into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 220537 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1137 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance] .

Previous TAF package appears to be largely on track. VFR conditions will persist intro the early morning hours Wednesday, after which widespread showers associated with an advancing storm system will result in a gradual deterioration of cigs and visibilities at all terminals. Rainfall will begin around 10Z across the northern sites, 12Z in the metro area, and 15Z near the coast. An overcast deck associated with the storm system looks to develop overnight, with cigs dropping to MVFR and eventually IFR levels by Wednesday afternoon as rainfall intensity increases. Visibilities should concurrently fall to at or near IFR levels during this time. An isolated thunderstorm or two remains possible near the coast towards the end of the period, but have continued to leave VCTS language out of TAFs until confidence in timing and coverage increases. Showers along with reduced cigs and visibilities look to continue until Thursday morning, after which a cold front will traverse the region.

Cady

PREV DISCUSSION . /ISSUED 357 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020/

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday] .

Upper level ridge axis, seen in water vapor imagery with thick cirrus moving into the area, should move across Texas tonight. A strong jet streak back over the southern Rockies should move into the area tomorrow with large scale lift spreading over much of the region. Isentropic lift will begin tonight in response to the approaching jet streak and height falls. Rain should spread over the area by Wednesday morning with several pockets of heavier rainfall. Stronger elevated convection may develop along the coast Wednesday afternoon as a warm front pushes north and strong southeast flow develops. This is where higher rainfall amounts can be expected especially Wednesday night.

Rainfall amounts will vary mainly north to south across the area. Looking at probabilistic QPF data from WPC, 10th percentile puts rainfall amounts around a half inch for much of the area, 90th percentile in the 1.5 to 2 inch amounts and our forecast lies somewhere in the middle. Our forecast is closer to the 90th percentile based on available deterministic data and high res models. This holds true especially along the coast for Wednesday night rainfall. The system is fairly progressive so conditions should improve Thursday.

Overpeck

LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Tuesday] .

Elevated rain chances will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period with the passage of a series of shortwaves (embedded in the southern stream jet aloft) in conjunction with the warm front mov- ing from the Gulf and a developing low-level jet. Parts of coastal SE TX remains in the Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (now Day 2) for this time frame. Clouds/POPs are expected to clear from the west(to east) Thurs morning/early afternoon as the associated cold front sweeps down from the Plains. Cooler/drier air should move in and settle over the region through Fri.

Otherwise, as stated in the Short Term discussion above, the over- all pattern seems to be a fairly progressive one. The exiting trof will be giving way to a fairly brief/flat upper ridge across SE TX Fri and Sat. Models have been in decent agreement with the the de- velopment of a cut-off low south of the Baja Peninsula through the weekend. The track of this system will help to draw mid/high cloud decks and low POPs back across the area by Sat night/Sun. The best rain chances for this timeframe should be over our Gulf waters and the southern half of the CWA. Looking further ahead, the next next best chances for rain will then be next Tues with the approach and passage of a deepening upper trof off the Rockies. 41

MARINE . Southeast winds tonight should increase in speed. A long fetch of strong southeast winds will support building seas and above normal tide levels into Thursday. Small craft advisories will be issued for the offshore waters as well as exercise caution for the bays. We will issue a beach hazards statement to cover increased tide levels and rip current threats. Currently, tide levels could reach around 3.5ft to 3.7ft MLLW, but with additional wave run-up from the 7-10ft seas offshore . we could see some minor coastal flooding along the beaches around times of high tide late Wed afternoon and overnight.

Rainfall will begin overspreading the waters from the west Wednesday morning with perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms Wednesday night. Rainfall will taper off Thursday morning with a cold frontal passage. Winds will become easterly over the weekend.

Overpeck

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 42 54 53 64 41 / 80 90 100 10 0 Houston (IAH) 43 56 55 68 45 / 10 100 100 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 63 60 68 51 / 0 100 100 40 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . NONE. GM . SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through late Wednesday night for the following zones: Galveston Bay . Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 1 AM CST Thursday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM . Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM . Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM . Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST Wednesday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM . Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM . Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM . Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi57 min 52°F 61°F1026.1 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi57 min 54°F 56°F1025.1 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi57 min 53°F 64°F1025.9 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi63 min 54°F 58°F1024.7 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi57 min 54°F 56°F1025 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi57 min 54°F 60°F1025.3 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi57 min 52°F 53°F1025.9 hPa
HIST2 32 mi63 min 50°F 58°F1025.8 hPa
KXIH 40 mi32 min ESE 16 G 22 55°F 41°F
LUIT2 40 mi57 min 55°F 59°F1026.5 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi37 min 16 G 21 4 ft1026.2 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi97 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F39°F67%1026.4 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi34 minESE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F39°F59%1026.1 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi34 minE 610.00 miFair52°F39°F64%1026 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi32 minVar 410.00 miFair52°F37°F58%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE4NE5E10E10E7E10E6E6E6E10SE6--E7E7E7SE8SE7E9
1 day agoNW5CalmCalmCalmN4N6N9N9N10----N11--N10
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NE10N5CalmNE5NE5NE5CalmN3--
2 days agoN13N12--N12
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Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:26 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:14 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 03:06 PM CST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:56 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:49 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:17 PM CST     0.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.30.50.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:24 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:54 AM CST     -2.22 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:45 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:26 PM CST     2.20 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 03:55 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:48 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.8-1.1-1.4-1.8-2.1-2.2-2.1-1.8-1.4-0.70.21.11.82.22.21.91.61.310.60.2-0.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.