Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Morgan's Point, TX
May 13, 2024 1:28 PM CDT (18:28 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 10:19 AM Moonset 12:00 AM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1112 Am Cdt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of today - South winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning, then showers likely with isolated Thunderstorms this afternoon.
Tonight - Northeast winds around 10 knots, veering to south after midnight, veering to west late. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy, easing to smooth after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots, veering to north in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning.
Tuesday night - South winds around 5 knots, backing to east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Wednesday - East winds around 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth, rising to slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Wednesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1112 Am Cdt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
moderate southeast winds will continue today, remaining at caution levels offshore. Scattered storms are expected by mid-day with an area of storms pushing offshore likely this evening. Winds will briefly shift to the north/northwest as a boundary crosses the coast and high pressure moves into the area. Onshore winds will resume by Tuesday night. Our next chance of widespread rainfall is expected to arrive early on Thursday.
moderate southeast winds will continue today, remaining at caution levels offshore. Scattered storms are expected by mid-day with an area of storms pushing offshore likely this evening. Winds will briefly shift to the north/northwest as a boundary crosses the coast and high pressure moves into the area. Onshore winds will resume by Tuesday night. Our next chance of widespread rainfall is expected to arrive early on Thursday.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS64 KHGX 131807 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 107 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Scattered thunderstorms have started to developed across central TX and will continue to move east-northeast into Southeast TX this afternoon and evening. The environment looks very favorable for new convection across our region this afternoon. Upper-level forcing (passing shortwaves) and a quasi-stationary boundary extending over our region will serve as a focus for severe thunderstorms. Current mesoanalysis show plenty of moisture, steep mid- level lapse rates, MUCAPE at or greater than 4K J/kg this afternoon, along with 0-6km bulk shear shear into the 50 to 60 knots range. These parameters will support organized/strong updrafts/supercells capable of producing large hail. As the afternoon progresses, 0-3 km helicity increases further to our east, increasing the wind threat. Isolated meso-vortices/tornado will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of Southeast TX until 8PM CDT.
JM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Mid/upper water vapor imagery overlaid with RAP 500MB height analysis show a well defined mid/upper trough pushing eastward into the central plains this morning. The trough is enhancing a mid/upper subtropical jet that extends from northern Mexico to the southern Mississippi River Valley. Shortwaves embedded in the jet will continue to push northeastward across our region today. Meanwhile at the surface, strong PVA and vorticity stretching over western Kansas and Oklahoma is gradually developing a low pressure system along with an associated cold front that extends southward through West Texas. All these features will continue pushing eastward and will be the synoptic drivers in today's forecast.
Moisture and instability will not be lacking today. Forecast soundings are showing ML lapse rates (700-500 mb) average around 7 degrees C/KM. HRRR ensemble mean sfc CAPE values are primarily in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. Ensemble mean PWATs show good potential for near 2 inch PWs in our coastal counties and 1.5-1.8" elsewhere.
High LL moisture/instability will be felt in the form of heat and humidity this afternoon. Current blend used in our forecast grids show widespread upper 80s for highs with 70s dew points. However, our northern CWA could struggle to reach the low 80s this afternoon due to being north of a stalled boundary (more on this below).
In addition to plentiful moisture/instability, shear at the mid- levels will be on the rise, with effective bulk shear values peaking 50-60 knots by late afternoon. This may coincide with the time frame of peak UL diffluence (300-200MB). The shear and instability profile may favor the development of a few discrete heavy thunderstorms this afternoon. But the primary concern for widespread thunderstorms lies with a more linear convective mode this afternoon and into the evening hours (some uncertainty regarding timing worth mentioning). The environment suggests large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Weak LL shear will limit, though not totally eliminate, the tornado risk. However, the large hail and damaging wind risk has been deemed high enough to warrant an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms as per SPC.
Our coastal zones remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).
It is worth mentioning that the aforementioned stalled boundary could impact the location and coverage of deep convection. If areas north of the boundary remain cooler and LL instability is lacking, then the bulk of the deep convection could consolidate farther south, likely occurring near and to the south of the boundary. This would increase the severe weather risk near the coast. We will need to closely monitor how well defined this boundary remains as the day progresses.
Wet soils from recent rains coupled with the risk of heavy thunderstorms has prompted WPC to issue a Slight (Level 2 of 4)
risk of excessive rainfall across much of the region as well.
Widespread additional rainfall totals are expected to range from 1-3 inches north of I-10, to less than an inch south of I-10. That being said, locally much heavier totals are possible. HRRR ensemble max QPF shows potential for locally over 5 inches of rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening across our northern counties. If timing of thunderstorms is pushed back, then we will need to consider pushing the watch into tonight.
A much needed break in the action is expected on Tuesday. The aforementioned front is expected to push offshore by Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will build into the region behind the front. Tuesday's dew points are expected to fall into the 60s. But with more sunshine and drier air, afternoon temperatures are likely to be a little hotter than today. NBM showing widespread afternoon highs around 90 degrees across the southern half of the CWA (excluding the coast). This seemed reasonable enough for us so we went with the toasty NBM for our afternoon highs tomorrow.
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The break in convection will continue through most of Wednesday.
By late Wednesday night a mid/upper level disturbance approaches from the west and we are likely to see scattered showers and storms develop or move into the area. On Thursday deep layer moisture returns to the area with precipitable water values back around 2 inches. This deep moisture coupled with the subtropical jet overhead and continued mid/upper level disturbances will set the stage for showers and storms again with locally heavy rainfall likely. A slight chance to chance of showers and storms will remain on Friday and into Saturday, but not very confident yet on the precipitation timing at the end of the week and going into the weekend as weak mid/upper disturbances will be the main driver with a weak frontal boundary likely lurking in the area as well.
By Sunday, we should warm up with mid/upper level ridging developing and rain chances on the decrease due to subsidence.
Wood
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
An active afternoon and evening with strong to severe thunderstorms expected near/around the terminals. Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward through early this evening. The best potential for severe thunderstorms will be for terminals south of CXO, though an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near/around CLL/UTS terminals. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Gusty erratic winds and reduced visibility can be expected with any strong storms.
Conditions should gradually improve late this evening. Benign aviation conditions are expected on Tuesday with northwest to north winds around 5 to 10 knots.
JM
MARINE
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Moderate onshore flow will continue today with wave heights offshore in the 4 to 6 foot range. Will continue to have a caution statement for today. This evening chances for showers and thunderstorms increase as an organized area of storms is likely to push off the coast and winds will become offshore. Some of these storms could be strong or severe. Onshore flow will return Tuesday night and increase on Wednesday. Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday, and caution conditions are likely on Thursday. Moderate onshore flow is expected to continue Friday and into Saturday.
Wood
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 83 64 86 63 / 50 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 87 68 90 65 / 60 60 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 73 85 74 / 60 60 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 196-198>200.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 107 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
New UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Scattered thunderstorms have started to developed across central TX and will continue to move east-northeast into Southeast TX this afternoon and evening. The environment looks very favorable for new convection across our region this afternoon. Upper-level forcing (passing shortwaves) and a quasi-stationary boundary extending over our region will serve as a focus for severe thunderstorms. Current mesoanalysis show plenty of moisture, steep mid- level lapse rates, MUCAPE at or greater than 4K J/kg this afternoon, along with 0-6km bulk shear shear into the 50 to 60 knots range. These parameters will support organized/strong updrafts/supercells capable of producing large hail. As the afternoon progresses, 0-3 km helicity increases further to our east, increasing the wind threat. Isolated meso-vortices/tornado will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of Southeast TX until 8PM CDT.
JM
SHORT TERM
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Mid/upper water vapor imagery overlaid with RAP 500MB height analysis show a well defined mid/upper trough pushing eastward into the central plains this morning. The trough is enhancing a mid/upper subtropical jet that extends from northern Mexico to the southern Mississippi River Valley. Shortwaves embedded in the jet will continue to push northeastward across our region today. Meanwhile at the surface, strong PVA and vorticity stretching over western Kansas and Oklahoma is gradually developing a low pressure system along with an associated cold front that extends southward through West Texas. All these features will continue pushing eastward and will be the synoptic drivers in today's forecast.
Moisture and instability will not be lacking today. Forecast soundings are showing ML lapse rates (700-500 mb) average around 7 degrees C/KM. HRRR ensemble mean sfc CAPE values are primarily in the 3000-4000 J/kg range. Ensemble mean PWATs show good potential for near 2 inch PWs in our coastal counties and 1.5-1.8" elsewhere.
High LL moisture/instability will be felt in the form of heat and humidity this afternoon. Current blend used in our forecast grids show widespread upper 80s for highs with 70s dew points. However, our northern CWA could struggle to reach the low 80s this afternoon due to being north of a stalled boundary (more on this below).
In addition to plentiful moisture/instability, shear at the mid- levels will be on the rise, with effective bulk shear values peaking 50-60 knots by late afternoon. This may coincide with the time frame of peak UL diffluence (300-200MB). The shear and instability profile may favor the development of a few discrete heavy thunderstorms this afternoon. But the primary concern for widespread thunderstorms lies with a more linear convective mode this afternoon and into the evening hours (some uncertainty regarding timing worth mentioning). The environment suggests large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Weak LL shear will limit, though not totally eliminate, the tornado risk. However, the large hail and damaging wind risk has been deemed high enough to warrant an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms as per SPC.
Our coastal zones remain in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5).
It is worth mentioning that the aforementioned stalled boundary could impact the location and coverage of deep convection. If areas north of the boundary remain cooler and LL instability is lacking, then the bulk of the deep convection could consolidate farther south, likely occurring near and to the south of the boundary. This would increase the severe weather risk near the coast. We will need to closely monitor how well defined this boundary remains as the day progresses.
Wet soils from recent rains coupled with the risk of heavy thunderstorms has prompted WPC to issue a Slight (Level 2 of 4)
risk of excessive rainfall across much of the region as well.
Widespread additional rainfall totals are expected to range from 1-3 inches north of I-10, to less than an inch south of I-10. That being said, locally much heavier totals are possible. HRRR ensemble max QPF shows potential for locally over 5 inches of rainfall. A Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening across our northern counties. If timing of thunderstorms is pushed back, then we will need to consider pushing the watch into tonight.
A much needed break in the action is expected on Tuesday. The aforementioned front is expected to push offshore by Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure will build into the region behind the front. Tuesday's dew points are expected to fall into the 60s. But with more sunshine and drier air, afternoon temperatures are likely to be a little hotter than today. NBM showing widespread afternoon highs around 90 degrees across the southern half of the CWA (excluding the coast). This seemed reasonable enough for us so we went with the toasty NBM for our afternoon highs tomorrow.
Self
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
The break in convection will continue through most of Wednesday.
By late Wednesday night a mid/upper level disturbance approaches from the west and we are likely to see scattered showers and storms develop or move into the area. On Thursday deep layer moisture returns to the area with precipitable water values back around 2 inches. This deep moisture coupled with the subtropical jet overhead and continued mid/upper level disturbances will set the stage for showers and storms again with locally heavy rainfall likely. A slight chance to chance of showers and storms will remain on Friday and into Saturday, but not very confident yet on the precipitation timing at the end of the week and going into the weekend as weak mid/upper disturbances will be the main driver with a weak frontal boundary likely lurking in the area as well.
By Sunday, we should warm up with mid/upper level ridging developing and rain chances on the decrease due to subsidence.
Wood
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024
An active afternoon and evening with strong to severe thunderstorms expected near/around the terminals. Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward through early this evening. The best potential for severe thunderstorms will be for terminals south of CXO, though an isolated strong storm or two cannot be ruled out near/around CLL/UTS terminals. Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats. Gusty erratic winds and reduced visibility can be expected with any strong storms.
Conditions should gradually improve late this evening. Benign aviation conditions are expected on Tuesday with northwest to north winds around 5 to 10 knots.
JM
MARINE
Issued at 218 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024
Moderate onshore flow will continue today with wave heights offshore in the 4 to 6 foot range. Will continue to have a caution statement for today. This evening chances for showers and thunderstorms increase as an organized area of storms is likely to push off the coast and winds will become offshore. Some of these storms could be strong or severe. Onshore flow will return Tuesday night and increase on Wednesday. Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday, and caution conditions are likely on Thursday. Moderate onshore flow is expected to continue Friday and into Saturday.
Wood
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 83 64 86 63 / 50 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 87 68 90 65 / 60 60 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 73 85 74 / 60 60 0 0
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 196-198>200.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 2 mi | 71 min | E 5.1G | 84°F | 78°F | 29.71 | ||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 13 mi | 71 min | E 7G | 83°F | 78°F | 29.72 | ||
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 14 mi | 71 min | SW 4.1G | 85°F | 29.70 | |||
| GRRT2 | 25 mi | 71 min | ESE 4.1G | 80°F | 79°F | 29.70 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 26 mi | 71 min | S 8G | 82°F | 79°F | 29.71 | ||
| GTOT2 | 27 mi | 71 min | S 2.9G | 82°F | 80°F | 29.70 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 28 mi | 71 min | SSE 7G | 80°F | 83°F | 29.73 | ||
| HIST2 | 33 mi | 71 min | S 4.1G | 82°F | 85°F | 29.75 | ||
| LUIT2 | 41 mi | 71 min | E 2.9G | 81°F | 80°F | 29.73 | ||
| 42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX | 43 mi | 59 min | SSE 7.8G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.73 | 77°F | |
| KGVW | 44 mi | 54 min | SE 13 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 9 sm | 34 min | calm | 5 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 86°F | 75°F | 70% | 29.70 |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 14 sm | 35 min | S 03 | 9 sm | Overcast | 86°F | 75°F | 70% | 29.71 | |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 16 sm | 15 min | S 10G19 | 3/4 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm in Vicinity Hvy Rain | 82°F | 79°F | 89% | 29.71 |
Tide / Current for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) HIDE Help
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas, Tide feet
Clear Lake
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM CDT -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:19 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:23 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:59 AM CDT Moonset
Mon -- 06:28 AM CDT Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM CDT -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 11:19 AM CDT Moonrise
Mon -- 07:23 PM CDT 0.82 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:04 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.6 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 0.4 |
| 5 am |
| 0.2 |
| 6 am |
| 0 |
| 7 am |
| -0.1 |
| 8 am |
| -0.2 |
| 9 am |
| -0.2 |
| 10 am |
| -0.2 |
| 11 am |
| -0.1 |
| 12 pm |
| -0 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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