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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 312 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots early. Bay and inland waters choppy.
Tonight..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Saturday..South winds around 10 knots. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Bay and inland waters rough. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay and inland waters rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay and inland waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 312 Am Cst Wed Dec 6 2023
Synopsis..
northerly winds will increase this morning behind a dry cold front resulting in moderate offshore flow. The offshore winds will decrease by tonight as surface high pressure settles in then become onshore on Thursday as high pressure shifts east of the area. Onshore winds will increase Friday as a surface low develops over the southern plains. This low will move eastward and help push a cold front across the coastal waters late Saturday. Showers and Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the front with strong and gusty offshore flow developing in its wake Saturday night into Sunday.

FXUS64 KLIX 061049 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 449 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 444 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Cold front continues to work through the area with cooler and much drier air working in.Temps have cooled but it looks like we may struggle to get to the lows previously expected with a good bit of cirrus still over the region and mixing likely to continue till right around sunrise. If we can decouple completely in the next few hours and cirrus can get thinner then we could see temps take a quick plunge just before sunrise but we are running out of time. That said it looks like tonight will be a chilly one.

Today and through tomorrow will be on the cooler side with below normal temperatures today and tomorrow morning followed by near normal Thursday afternoon. The cold front that is currently moving into the coastal waters has some cooler air with it but more so much drier air and as the sfc high slides across the region it will be centered just off to the NE tomorrow morning and this will provide a night of great radiational cooling conditions. Dewpoints have already fallen into the mid 30s in northwestern portions of the CWA and this drier air will work across the entire CWA this morning with a shot of upper 20 dewpoints in the northern sections of the CWA after we have peaked mixing. This would suggest the potential for lows to drop to freezing once again in some areas and maybe even a few upper 20s. The typical drainage areas will also have the potential to cool quite impressively. Latest MOS values all seem somewhat reasonable but maybe a touch too warm however the NBM looks to be way too warm. For just about the entire area the NBM is sitting above the 90th percentile and this is quite shocking given what looks like a fairly darn good rad cooling night. With that the biggest change in the forecast was to the overnight lows tonight where in some locations we are almost 10 degrees below the Op value of the NBM.

We quickly moderate going into Friday eve as a s/w ridge to the west of us flattens out Thursday night with the next major system already digging over the western CONUS. High pressure quickly slides east that return flow will quickly set up and could be strong enough to bring some light showers into the area during the day Friday but we won't see any major impacts till late Saturday as the next potent system rolls through. /CAB/

LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 444 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

Medium range models in fairly good agreement through the weekend and early next week. Sharp L/W trough and cold front work through this weekend possibly bringing us another round of strong to severe storms and perhaps the strongest cool airmass of the season so far. NBM for the most part is in agreement but once again may be a touch to warm for lows early next week but that is 5 and 6 days out and am reluctant to make any major deviations at this time.

Friday night/early Saturday a deep L/W trough over the continental divide will quickly push east and sharpen up. As it move into the Plains a sfc low will consolidate over the central Plains and begin to deepen as it moves across the Mid MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes Saturday evening. By Saturday evening the associated cold front will be moving into are if it has not yet already while the positively tilted trough axis will still be a little back to the west. The trough axis is expected to move through Sunday morning while the cold front moves through Saturday night. The combination of the cold front and increasing lift with the trough should be more than enough to spark convection likely in the form of a line along the front. The main question is will we see any severe weather with this. Typically a sfc low so far to the north and pulling away farther to the north is not favorable but that is more from a tornado threat standpoint the threat for damaging winds could still be and usually is the primary concern. The one problem here is that the LL jet that tries to develop during the evening may be just too far north while the greatest mid lvl support could be just a little too far to the west behind the front. However the trough will be highly amplified and it still looks like there will be more than sufficient lift and support with the front and even though the LL jet is likely north of the CWA there is still strong LL convergence with the h85 front quickly trailing the sfc front. Biggest issue with the chance of severe will be timing and can everything line up.
Again some things do look post frontal but overall it doesn't appear to be a a significant issue with this system given the sharpness of the trough. The biggest issue could be that the sfc low is already so far north and quickly pulling farther away. Once again the northwest may have the best chance for strong to severe storms as that area could be impacted from the development to our west and southwest however strong to even a few isolated severe storms seem possible across the entire CWA Saturday night.

After the trough axis slides through early Sunday morning we quickly dry out with much drier and cooler air working in behind the front.
This does appear to be the coolest airmass we have seen so far this season but it will be more of a glancing blow and a direct punch as we appear to be mostly on the fringe of the airmass. This is thanks to the quite progressive L/W trough. It quickly shifts east with a very broad trough like pattern across the majority of the CONUS. We will moderate some early next week but moderation will be slow which could result in a few mornings testing the freezing mark again and highs likely remaining in the 50s Monday and a few in the lower 60s Tuesday. /CAB/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

VFR condtions will persist through the forecast and the only immediate concern is some possible LLWS issues thhis morning but this will quickly subside a few hours after sunrise. /CAB/

MARINE
Issued at 444 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2023

A cold front moving through the coastal waters this morning has brought strong offshore/northerly winds to the area and this has led to SCY headlines across all of the waters. Much cooler and drier air was moving in and this was helping to create the breezy conditions over the water but high pressure will quickly build in today causing winds to relax just as quick. This high will continue to work east overnight tonight and tomorrow with return flow quickly becoming established. /CAB/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 30 60 44 / 0 0 0 0 BTR 61 35 65 49 / 0 0 0 0 ASD 59 30 63 46 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 58 43 63 53 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 58 34 61 49 / 0 0 0 0 PQL 60 29 64 45 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ530-532-534-536- 538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ532-534-536-538- 550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

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Shell Island
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Wed -- 12:28 AM CST     1.25 feet High Tide
Wed -- 12:42 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:06 AM CST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:22 PM CST     0.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:14 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 04:03 PM CST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Eugene Island
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Wed -- 12:43 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:42 AM CST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:03 AM CST     1.23 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:14 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:39 PM CST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:16 PM CST     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Eugene Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

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