Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:42 PM Moonrise 2:29 AM   Moonset 2:05 PM

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GMZ455 Coastal Waters From Lower Atchafalaya River To Intracoastal City La Out 20 Nm- 912 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Patchy fog late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Monday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday - South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 912 Pm Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - Another round of showers and Thunderstorms are expected to develop by Friday morning with activity continuing through the day. Then another quiet period starting tomorrow night. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the rest of the period.

FXUS64 KLCH 030438 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1138 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 916 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

This evening's upper air sounding still shows a rather moist air mass in place with deep southerly flow. With left over surface boundaries and expected increase in nocturnal jet overnight, would expect nocturnal showers to develop over the Gulf before daybreak and move inland. This activity is expected to increase in areal coverage and intensity throughout the morning as an upper level impulse approaches the forecast area. Main concern will be heavy rainfall over already saturated grounds and areas with high hydrologic flows.

Overall forecast is on track and only minor adjustments made, mainly to timing of pops from latest CAM guidance.

Rua

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

As of 330CDT we are seeing showers and storms begin to taper across the area, with a wake low forming over the northern tier of the CWA We will continue to see tapering across the area this evening, however another round of showers and storms will ramp tomorrow morning thanks to yet another disturbance. Tomorrow night we shall see another lull in activity, which is likely to persist into Saturday afternoon before isolated showers return to the northern half of the CWA

While rainfall amounts tomorrow and Saturday are not expected to be as copious as what we have seen today, we continue to stress that any additional rainfall amounts will exacerbate current flooding.

Stigger/87

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The long-term portion of the forecast period begins with the potential for yet another wet day, especially for the far nrn areas, as we'll see the interaction of an approaching/passing mid- level shortwave with a stalled/decaying sfc boundary over the region along with abundant Gulf moisture. Best rain chances will come during the late morning/afternoon hours along with daytime heating before lift wanes as the disturbance aloft departs.

For Monday, as the mid/upper-level trof pushes ewd out of the Rockies, another weaker disturbance is progged to slip past the area, with best dynamics staying to our north. However, could see enough lift to go along with daytime heating to produce widely scattered convection across our nern zones.

Thereafter, the remainder of the forecast period looks dry as a more zonal flow is progged to develop aloft, with weak capping/limited moisture aloft likely prohibiting convective development.

Expect to see a gradual warming trend through the long term as temps creep upward to mins in the lower 70s/highs in the lower 90s.

25

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Not a lot has changed in the thinking as far as the aviation forecast goes. Low clouds have started to develop with KARA/KLFT already at MVFR levels, and the other terminals should follow suit over the next couple of hours.

The next issue will be the potential for redevelopment of shower activity toward daybreak. With the very moist airmass staying around and plenty of low level boundaries, nocturnal shower activity is expected to move in at KBPT by 03/10z then spreading to the other terminals after 03/13z. Convective activity is expected to increase during the morning hours as an upper level disturbance moves toward the area. MVFR to IFR conditions from the showers and storms. Shower activity is expected to end during the mid to late afternoon with some VFR conditions possible at the terminals.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 333 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Isolated to slight showers and storms to continue across the coastal waters this evening. We will see a brief lull in activity overnight before another round tomorrow morning. Then another quiet period starting tomorrow night. No Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the rest of the

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 80 64 85 / 40 70 20 30 LCH 70 81 70 84 / 50 60 0 10 LFT 72 82 70 86 / 50 60 10 10 BPT 70 82 71 84 / 50 60 0 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516.

GM...None.

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Shell Island
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Thu -- 02:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:41 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
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Thu -- 02:54 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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