Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gainesville, FL

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
Main Highlights For Today:

- Areas of dense fog expected along the nearshore GA waters through Saturday morning. This sea fog will move onshore later this evening with fog expanding in coverage through Saturday morning.

- Isolated T-storms near the coast will push inland from the I-95 corridor and move inland with further development of widely scattered T-storms into the late evening.

Currently, widely scattered showers and a T-storm along the east coast sea breeze at 130 PM and will push inland while additional convection will develop inland counties through the late afternoon and evening. Coverage of precip will trend to scattered or about 30- 40 percent coverage. We can't rule out a strong storm with hail and gusty winds given aforementioned discussions about fairly cold temps aloft yielding sizable CAPE values. Latest MLCAPE analysis shows values up to 1700-2000 J/kg inland, a few hundred more than yesterday, where the temps are in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Convection will tend to congeal a bit more around the I-75 corridor after 5 PM.

Max temps expected in the mid 80s inland, and we will have mid 70s at the coast.

Have seen some sea fog along the GA coast (per webcams and satellite imagery) and so we have expanded marine dense fog advisory overnight. For tonight, another round of sea fog/fog will develop again late tonight as a moist low level airmass and light SE winds under partly cloudy skies trending mostly clear at times well after sunset from leftover showers and storms fading by 10PM-midnight.
Lows will fall into the lower 60s near the coast and the mid 60s inland.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Thunderstorm chances over most of the area Sunday - Fog potential each night, which may become dense

The region will remain within the western periphery of Bermuda High ridging through the short term period, with the main headlines being very warm temperatures persisting with a southeasterly flow, as well as chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms inland each afternoon and evening, especially on Sunday. Fog potential will also continue each morning with this regime persisting, mainly near the coast and over southeast GA.

Saturday & Saturday Night: Slightly warmer and drier conditions aloft Saturday will limit diurnal convection potential slightly, with the best chances for an isolated shower being generally over the southern St. Johns River Basin and southern I-75 corridor. High temps will be overall quite similar to Friday, with widespread low to mid 80s inland and mid to upper 70s near the immediate coast.
Areas of fog and low clouds spread inland for most of the area Saturday Night with mild lows in the low 60s common.

Sunday & Sunday Night: A weakening frontal boundary approaches from the northwest on Sunday, though will stall and essentially dissipate through Sunday Night. Pre frontal moisture will continue to move southeastward into the area during the day on Sunday, which will return slightly higher coverage of showers and a few isolated t'storms. The front will break down ridging a bit and induce more of a southeast to southerly flow near the coast and southwesterly inland, shifting the "corridor" of diurnal convective chances closer to the Atlantic coast. That being said, most of the area will have at least a slight chance of a shower, though the best chances (around 25-30%) will be generally between I-75 and I-95 Sunday Afternoon and Evening. More along shore and offshore flow will push very warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s closer to the coast as well as inland, though still only in the upper 70s within a few miles of the coast, especially the southeast GA coastline. Southwest flow off the Gulf will result in the greatest fog potential being over areas furthest west/southwest Sunday Night, with min temps in the low 60s common across the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Greatest chance for thunderstorms this period is on Thursday - Nightly fog potential continues

Flow will remain more southwesterly Monday before Bermuda High pressure ridging reinforces a bit Tuesday and into mid week, with more of a southeasterly flow returning. A few showers or isolated t'storms may affect interior southeast GA throughout the weak closer to a weak/diffuse boundary to the north, but otherwise the start of the long term period looks to remain dry for the vast majority of the region. The next big "weather maker" is expected around the Thursday time frame as an upper trough dips into the southeastern US with complex surface low pressure likely to form near the Gulf Coast and move across the region.

Temperatures trend mostly above climo for the long term period.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
A shower or storm may pass by GNV in the next hour. Otherwise, ESE winds around 10 kts this evening decrease to 5 kts or less overnight. Another round of fog/stratus will likely affect the TAF sites tonight. Earliest development of fog and stratus expected at SSI By 03z-06z due to the sea fog, then anticipate rest of the TAFs having cig and/or vsby IFR/LIFR restrictions by 07z-10z. Conditions improve by 14z Saturday.

MARINE

Dense sea fog at times will lead to difficult navigation conditions across the coastal waters tonight and Saturday morning. Prevailing visibilities will generally be low, especially within about 20 NM from the coast. Sea fog is likely to continue through the weekend as warm, moist air is pushed across the water by southeast and south winds. Otherwise, surface high pressure near Bermuda with the axis westward into north central Florida, will remain fairly stationary through Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will develop across the waters Sunday into Monday.

Rip Currents: For today, breezy east and southeast winds of about 10G15kt coupled with nearly direct onshore swells (with periods of 10 seconds) to the coast will support a moderate to high risk of rip currents at area beaches. Latest wave forecasts suggest very little change in the sea/surf state so moderate to high risk may continue into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
- Low Dispersions Along The Coast Today - Areas Of High Dispersions Inland Southeast Ga Sunday

High pressure will be the prevailing weather feature through the weekend, featuring an onshore southeasterly flow as well as chances for showers inland through this time frame. A weakening frontal boundary will bring greater chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms as well as patchy high dispersions by Sunday, though this front will essentially dissipate by early next week. Conditions then look dry for early to mid next week before a stronger frontal system approaches around Thursday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Nightly fog potential will continue through the weekend and likely into next week as well. Slight thunderstorm chances expected inland during the afternoon and evening through Monday.

CLIMATE

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES WAS SET AT GAINESVILLE FL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 87 DEGREES SET IN 1977.

Record High Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 88/2023 KAMG: 86/1956

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 7: KGNV: 66/1935

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 63 84 61 84 / 20 10 10 20 SSI 62 73 61 76 / 10 0 10 20 JAX 62 83 61 86 / 10 10 10 30 SGJ 64 78 61 81 / 10 10 10 20 GNV 63 86 61 87 / 30 20 10 30 OCF 64 87 62 86 / 40 20 10 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents until 4 AM EST Saturday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ450.