Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for West University Place, TX
May 1, 2024 4:31 PM CDT (21:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:36 AM Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 1:31 AM Moonset 12:08 PM |
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 247 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
.small craft should exercise caution - .
Tonight - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots late. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy late. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Saturday - Southeast winds around 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Monday - Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
Monday night - South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 247 Pm Cdt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
winds remain above caution thresholds this evening, and may flirt with advisory levels on Thursday. Shower and Thunderstorm chances begin to increase today and persist through the rest of the work week, mainly for the galveston bay area and its adjacent waters. Although the strongest storms are expected to remain inland, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be fully ruled out.
winds remain above caution thresholds this evening, and may flirt with advisory levels on Thursday. Shower and Thunderstorm chances begin to increase today and persist through the rest of the work week, mainly for the galveston bay area and its adjacent waters. Although the strongest storms are expected to remain inland, an isolated stronger storm or two cannot be fully ruled out.
Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 012036 AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 336 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
We continue to anticipate a heavy rain event overnight and into tomorrow, which will pose a risk of flash flooding while also exacerbating ongoing river flooding. A Flood Watch, which now including Harris County as well as other locations along and north of the I-10 corridor within the original Watch, will be in effect between 10 PM tonight and 7 PM tomorrow. Additionally, this line of storms will pose a threat of severe weather, particularly strong wind gusts, as it moves through the area.
Models still remain in good agreement in showing the progression of a robust midlevel trough, which will move across the area overnight and into tomorrow. Environmental conditions remain favorable for heavy rain, with abundant moisture availability (PWs of around 2.0 in) that will be sustained by steady onshore flow. Soils remain well- saturated from Sunday/Monday's storms, which, combined with elevated river and creek levels, will make flash flooding quicker to develop.
Furthermore, SB instability in the range of 1500 J/kg and effective layer shear of 40+kt during the overnight/early tomorrow period will both support heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The approach of the aforementioned trough is expected to induce the development of an MCS to our northwest, with the complex of storms moving from NW to SE over the course of the overnight and morning hours. A few isolated storms ahead of the line are possible, and these storms may result in a few brief heavy downpours. However, the main heavy rainfall window looks to remain concentrated around the 2 AM to 12 PM timeframe.
In terms of rainfall totals, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty across the most recent iterations of available HiRes models as well as the HRRR. Generally, the axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted to the south since yesterday, with most locations along and north of the I-10 corridor poised to receive average rainfall amounts between 2-5". Some localized totals may reach 6-9", although the exact location and extent of any higher amounts will be dependent on exactly how the development of the line unfolds. A faster-moving line, as depicted in some of the more recent HRRR runs, would favor less instances of localized higher amounts but would also result in an increased risk of strong/severe wind gusts with the development of a stronger cold pool behind the line. With slower-moving solutions, we'd expect to see greater instances of the locally higher amounts. A few solutions also show some redevelopment of scattered storms tomorrow afternoon, which could produce a few more locally heavy downpours.
While uncertainty remains in the forecast, we nonetheless still anticipate a widespread flooding threat with the threat of severe weather also still present. In addition to the threat of street flooding, these additional rains will also contribute to the ongoing river flooding across the area, particularly across portions of the San Jacinto and Trinity basins. This period will remain a time to be weather aware and weather prepared...with flooding and strong winds potentially impacting the morning commute across the area, caution should be exercised while traveling. Having multiple ways to receive warnings remains very important!
Cady
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The long-term forecast period continues to show a series of upper- level disturbances moving through a quasi-zonal flow through the early weekend. Onshore winds will continue to pull moisture into SE Texas from the Gulf, causing another increase in PW values Friday (between 1.5 and 1.8 inches). Highest PW values are reflected over an area generally north of I-10 and east of I-45. Furthermore, the 500mb layer shows ripples in the overall flow with embedded vort maxes crossing through the northern portion of the CWA In addition to the aforementioned ingredients, models continue to indicate the potential for a 925mb LLJ to redevelop Friday (guidance is pretty spread out with regards to the strength of the LLJ). This setup will allow for a few more rounds of showers and storms to move through, again with highest chances remaining in the area north of I-10 and east of I-45. Low-level moisture hangs around through the weekend; however, precipitation chances remain on the lower end (20% or less)
on Saturday. Upper-level flow becomes more zonal, the LLJ dissipates, and drier air moves into the mid-levels which will help reduce the coverage of precipitation. Any precipitation on Saturday will likely be diurnal in nature (plenty of CAPE with daytime heating eroding the cap) and the highest chances once again reside in the NE portion of the CWA
Given the already saturated soils in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in addition to the forecasted rainfall for the short-term period, any further rainfall will enhance the potential for flash flooding and river flooding. It is important to bear in mind that rivers can respond anywhere from a few hours to days after a significant rainfall event. Please continue to monitor the forecast, have a plan for yourself, family, and pets, and have multiple ways to receive alerts.
The active weather pattern appears to settle down early next week as upper level ridging prevails and leads to drier and warmer conditions. Highs for next week will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points in the low 70s will lead to more muggy condition as well.
Adams
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions ongoing this afternoon. GLS currently at IFR with low CIGs . Expect primarily MVFR this afternoon with periods of IFR possible. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible overnight through Thursday morning. Gusty winds and reduced VSBYs will be possible with any stronger storms. SE winds will strengthen this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Moderate onshore winds are expected through much of the forecast period. Winds may approach Advisory levels on Thursday. Seas will generally range between 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters and 2 to 5 feet over the nearshore waters. In addition to increased winds, there is an increased risk for strong rip currents to occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next few days.
Periods of showers and storms can be expected through the end of the work week.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
River flooding continues, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this morning:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood Stage today - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Minor Flood Stage today - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage - San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)
as the river flood threat continues.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 82 72 83 / 80 70 30 30 Houston (IAH) 73 84 73 83 / 60 60 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 74 80 74 80 / 40 30 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-300-313.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 336 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
We continue to anticipate a heavy rain event overnight and into tomorrow, which will pose a risk of flash flooding while also exacerbating ongoing river flooding. A Flood Watch, which now including Harris County as well as other locations along and north of the I-10 corridor within the original Watch, will be in effect between 10 PM tonight and 7 PM tomorrow. Additionally, this line of storms will pose a threat of severe weather, particularly strong wind gusts, as it moves through the area.
Models still remain in good agreement in showing the progression of a robust midlevel trough, which will move across the area overnight and into tomorrow. Environmental conditions remain favorable for heavy rain, with abundant moisture availability (PWs of around 2.0 in) that will be sustained by steady onshore flow. Soils remain well- saturated from Sunday/Monday's storms, which, combined with elevated river and creek levels, will make flash flooding quicker to develop.
Furthermore, SB instability in the range of 1500 J/kg and effective layer shear of 40+kt during the overnight/early tomorrow period will both support heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe wind gusts. The approach of the aforementioned trough is expected to induce the development of an MCS to our northwest, with the complex of storms moving from NW to SE over the course of the overnight and morning hours. A few isolated storms ahead of the line are possible, and these storms may result in a few brief heavy downpours. However, the main heavy rainfall window looks to remain concentrated around the 2 AM to 12 PM timeframe.
In terms of rainfall totals, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty across the most recent iterations of available HiRes models as well as the HRRR. Generally, the axis of heaviest rainfall has shifted to the south since yesterday, with most locations along and north of the I-10 corridor poised to receive average rainfall amounts between 2-5". Some localized totals may reach 6-9", although the exact location and extent of any higher amounts will be dependent on exactly how the development of the line unfolds. A faster-moving line, as depicted in some of the more recent HRRR runs, would favor less instances of localized higher amounts but would also result in an increased risk of strong/severe wind gusts with the development of a stronger cold pool behind the line. With slower-moving solutions, we'd expect to see greater instances of the locally higher amounts. A few solutions also show some redevelopment of scattered storms tomorrow afternoon, which could produce a few more locally heavy downpours.
While uncertainty remains in the forecast, we nonetheless still anticipate a widespread flooding threat with the threat of severe weather also still present. In addition to the threat of street flooding, these additional rains will also contribute to the ongoing river flooding across the area, particularly across portions of the San Jacinto and Trinity basins. This period will remain a time to be weather aware and weather prepared...with flooding and strong winds potentially impacting the morning commute across the area, caution should be exercised while traveling. Having multiple ways to receive warnings remains very important!
Cady
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
The long-term forecast period continues to show a series of upper- level disturbances moving through a quasi-zonal flow through the early weekend. Onshore winds will continue to pull moisture into SE Texas from the Gulf, causing another increase in PW values Friday (between 1.5 and 1.8 inches). Highest PW values are reflected over an area generally north of I-10 and east of I-45. Furthermore, the 500mb layer shows ripples in the overall flow with embedded vort maxes crossing through the northern portion of the CWA In addition to the aforementioned ingredients, models continue to indicate the potential for a 925mb LLJ to redevelop Friday (guidance is pretty spread out with regards to the strength of the LLJ). This setup will allow for a few more rounds of showers and storms to move through, again with highest chances remaining in the area north of I-10 and east of I-45. Low-level moisture hangs around through the weekend; however, precipitation chances remain on the lower end (20% or less)
on Saturday. Upper-level flow becomes more zonal, the LLJ dissipates, and drier air moves into the mid-levels which will help reduce the coverage of precipitation. Any precipitation on Saturday will likely be diurnal in nature (plenty of CAPE with daytime heating eroding the cap) and the highest chances once again reside in the NE portion of the CWA
Given the already saturated soils in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in addition to the forecasted rainfall for the short-term period, any further rainfall will enhance the potential for flash flooding and river flooding. It is important to bear in mind that rivers can respond anywhere from a few hours to days after a significant rainfall event. Please continue to monitor the forecast, have a plan for yourself, family, and pets, and have multiple ways to receive alerts.
The active weather pattern appears to settle down early next week as upper level ridging prevails and leads to drier and warmer conditions. Highs for next week will reach into the upper 80s to low 90s. Dew points in the low 70s will lead to more muggy condition as well.
Adams
AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Mixture of VFR/MVFR conditions ongoing this afternoon. GLS currently at IFR with low CIGs . Expect primarily MVFR this afternoon with periods of IFR possible. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible overnight through Thursday morning. Gusty winds and reduced VSBYs will be possible with any stronger storms. SE winds will strengthen this afternoon to around 10 to 15 knots.
MARINE
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024
Moderate onshore winds are expected through much of the forecast period. Winds may approach Advisory levels on Thursday. Seas will generally range between 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters and 2 to 5 feet over the nearshore waters. In addition to increased winds, there is an increased risk for strong rip currents to occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next few days.
Periods of showers and storms can be expected through the end of the work week.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 243 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024
River flooding continues, particularly along portions of the Trinity and San Jacinto rivers. The following river points continue to remain at or above flood stage as of this morning:
- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage - Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood Stage today - Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage - Trinity River (Romayor): Action Stage, rising to Minor Flood Stage today - Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage - Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage - San Jacinto (New Caney): Major Flood Stage
Additional rainfall over the next few days, both over the area and upstream, may result in further water level rises and prolonged river flooding. Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to never travel through flooded areas or roadways. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)
as the river flood threat continues.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 70 82 72 83 / 80 70 30 30 Houston (IAH) 73 84 73 83 / 60 60 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 74 80 74 80 / 40 30 30 20
HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Flood Watch from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-300-313.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX | 5 mi | 44 min | SW 2.9G | 81°F | 29.81 | |||
| MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX | 20 mi | 44 min | ESE 13G | 77°F | 29.83 | |||
| EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX | 29 mi | 44 min | SE 12G | 80°F | 79°F | 29.84 | ||
| GRRT2 | 38 mi | 44 min | E 12G | 78°F | 78°F | 29.81 | ||
| GTOT2 | 41 mi | 44 min | ESE 8G | 79°F | 78°F | 29.81 | ||
| GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX | 42 mi | 44 min | ESE 17G | 77°F | 29.82 | |||
| LUIT2 | 46 mi | 44 min | E 12G | 77°F | 79°F | 29.83 | ||
| RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX | 47 mi | 44 min | SE 16G | 76°F | 82°F | 29.85 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHOU WILLIAM P HOBBY,TX | 6 sm | 38 min | SE 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.83 | |
| KEFD ELLINGTON,TX | 13 sm | 37 min | ESE 12 | 10 sm | Overcast | 81°F | 73°F | 79% | 29.83 | |
| KLVJ PEARLAND RGNL,TX | 15 sm | 38 min | SE 11G17 | 9 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.85 | |
| KAXH HOUSTONSOUTHWEST,TX | 16 sm | 16 min | ESE 07 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 75°F | 79% | 29.83 | |
| KSGR SUGAR LAND RGNL,TX | 17 sm | 38 min | SE 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 73°F | 74% | 29.81 | |
| KIAH GEORGE BUSH INTERCONTINENTAL/HOUSTON,TX | 18 sm | 38 min | ESE 14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 82°F | 72°F | 70% | 29.83 |
Tide / Current for Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay, Manchester, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay, Manchester, Texas, Tide feet
Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:37 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM CDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:06 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:54 PM CDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM CDT Moonrise
Wed -- 06:27 AM CDT Last Quarter
Wed -- 06:37 AM CDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM CDT 0.06 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:06 PM CDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:54 PM CDT 1.26 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:57 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.5 |
| 6 am |
| 0.3 |
| 7 am |
| 0.2 |
| 8 am |
| 0.1 |
| 9 am |
| 0.1 |
| 10 am |
| 0.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Houston/Galveston, TX,
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