Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Anahuac, TX

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Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 8:00PM Saturday August 17, 2019 7:58 PM CDT (00:58 UTC) Moonrise 8:33PMMoonset 7:32AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 336 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds around 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 336 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow with slightly higher wind speeds during the overnight and early morning hours. Winds may become gusty and erratic near any Thunderstorms that do form. Seas will generally be 2 feet or less today, but will be gradually increasing to around 4 feet late tonight and Sunday. High pressure building into the region through next week will bring more relatively quiet weather.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Anahuac, TX
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location: 29.73, -94.7     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 180045
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
745 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Aviation [00z TAF issuance]
Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated withVFR conditions
across the region. Southerly flow will become southwesterly in the
morning around sunrise. Some patchy st possible near cll around
sunrise and can't rule out a brief stint of MVFR there. Otherwise
showers developing in the coastal waters after 09z and spreading
into the coastal areas around 12z. Redevelopment inland near the
seabreeze late morning and spreading into the metro terminals
19-22z time frame. Leaning toward the nmm solution and if short
term guidance trends in that scenario then will likely need tempo
in the mid afternoon hours as S W slides in from the northwest and
seabreeze collide if the mid level capping isn't too strong.

45

Prev discussion issued 320 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
Discussion
Hot summer weather continues to be expected this weekend, but as
we go deeper into next week, temperatures should begin to slowly
back down, and create less of a need for heat advisories. Shower
and thunderstorm patterns should be pretty typical of summer for
most of the week, with daily activity largely focused in the
vicinity of the seabreeze. This may change next weekend, when a
slug of tropical moisture may make rainfall more widespread.

Short term [through tonight]
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving across the SE third
of the region and most of the activity will end quickly this evening
with the loss of daytime heating. Skies will clear mid evening with
some cloud cover returning after 09z. Winds don't fully decouple
tonight and with some hint of cloud cover possible, think overnight
low temperatures will remain on the warm side with low temperatures
remaining in the lower 80's over the houston area, mid 80's along
the coast and upper 70's over the rest of the region. 43

Long term [Sunday through Saturday]
Sunday largely looks to be a repeat of today. The ridge aloft does
look to slide west slightly, which may usher in just a bit of
drier continental air - but potentially enough to allow us to mix
out a bit more effectively and see a slightly lower number of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms. It's close enough that I will
leave any decisions on whether or not a heat advisory is needed to
the evening or overnight shift. Will also go with rain chances
that - while matching today in pattern - are a smidge lower than
today.

Deeper into the week, the upper ridge may become stronger, but its
maximum is also expected to retreat back towards the four corners.

As a result, the expectation would be for temperatures to slide
slowly down towards seasonably hot from unseasonably hot. With a
relative minimum in ridge strength developing above us, my pops
for the week follow a diurnal pattern pretty strongly. Trends in
the magnitude of pops largely follow the path laid out by progged
precipitable water trends; as pwats go up, so too do rain chances.

As one would expect when following a diurnal trend, the best
potential for showers and storms should concentrate more towards
the seabreeze boundary in the afternoon.

After a pretty stable week, we'll have to keep an eye on what's
coming our way next weekend. The feature to watch will be a slug
of tropical moisture making its way up from the bay of campeche.

This phrasing at this time of year may bring concerns about
tropical development - and I certainly can't deny that a tropical
cyclone is a possibility. But, for now, the guidance is seeing
this as a mid-level disturbance that may or may not even have some
kind of surface reflection. If anything, the trend in the models
has been for less potential of tropical cyclogenesis.

But, regardless of whether we get a named storm out of this
feature or not, we'll have to keep a close eye on the amount of
moisture headed our way and the potential to fuel heavy rains. For
now, the forecast has no real reason to deviate from the guidance
consensus of having more widespread rains than the more seasonal
pattern described for the work week, but will also forecast the
heaviest rain to fall safely offshore. At this range, there is not
a ton of confidence in how exactly this will play out - so we'll
be keeping a close eye on how things trend in the coming days.

Marine
A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the weekend with slightly higher wind speeds during the overnight
and early morning hours. The gradient will tighten tonight over the
western gulf waters has pressures drop over eastern new mexico. Will
issue a scec for the western waters tonight as winds increase to 15
to 20 knots. The gradient will relax on Sunday and winds will
decrease by afternoon. The start of next week looks relatively quiet
as high pressure builds over the eastern gulf. A weak upper level
disturbance moving into the area will bring a chance of showers and
storms to the gulf waters Mon tue. 43

Climate
The first 16 days of august have been very warm. The average
temperature for the period of aug 1 thru aug 16 was 88.6 degrees at
bush iah (3rd warmest - trailing 2011 90.4 and 1962 89.3), 87.7
degrees at hobby (2nd warmest - trailing 2011 89.0) and 88.4
at galveston (2nd warmest - trailing 2011 88.7 degrees). 43

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 78 100 78 99 77 10 10 0 20 0
houston (iah) 81 96 80 95 79 10 20 10 50 10
galveston (gls) 85 91 84 90 83 20 20 10 60 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 5 am cdt Sunday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Waters from freeport
to matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion...

aviation... 45


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 15 mi58 min S 12 G 14 89°F 89°F1010.6 hPa (-0.8)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 18 mi58 min SSW 5.1 G 12 87°F 91°F1011.3 hPa (-0.7)
HIST2 19 mi64 min S 8 G 13 87°F 90°F1010.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 21 mi64 min S 15 G 18 88°F 89°F1010.2 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 26 mi64 min S 13 G 16 87°F 89°F1010.2 hPa
GTOT2 29 mi58 min S 6 G 9.9 88°F 88°F1011 hPa (-0.6)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 30 mi58 min S 8.9 G 14 89°F 89°F1009.8 hPa (-0.7)
GRRT2 31 mi58 min SSW 11 G 14 87°F 91°F1010.6 hPa (-0.6)
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 38 mi38 min S 14 G 18 88°F 1012 hPa82°F
KXIH 39 mi43 min S 9.9 G 16 88°F 75°F
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi58 min S 5.1 G 8 87°F 90°F1011.8 hPa (-0.6)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 44 mi58 min S 11 G 14 86°F 91°F1013.2 hPa (-0.7)
TXPT2 46 mi58 min S 11 G 17 86°F 89°F1010.2 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX26 mi2.1 hrsSSE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy90°F73°F59%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE5SE5SE4SE5S4CalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5S6SW5S8S5S8S7S13
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1 day agoE6E3E4E4CalmCalmCalmSW4SW3SW5SW3CalmCalmW5W5N5SE1NE6E6SE6SE6SE7SE8SE7
2 days ago--CalmCalmCalmSW5--NW4--NW3--W2CalmCalm--N3CalmNW5N3--W3E5S3SE10E9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
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Sat -- 04:26 AM CDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:32 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 01:01 PM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:54 PM CDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:09 PM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.40.20.10.10.20.30.40.60.80.911.110.90.80.80.80.80.90.911

Tide / Current Tables for Gilchrist, East Bay, Texas
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Gilchrist
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:01 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:47 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:29 AM CDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:29 PM CDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:31 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.30.10.10.20.30.50.811.11.11.110.90.90.90.90.911.11.110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.