Sunrise 6:17 AM   Sunset 7:41 PM Moonrise 1:53 AM   Moonset 12:58 PM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 316 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Today - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers early this morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.Saturday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Sunday night - Southeast winds around 15 knots, diminishing to around 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy. Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 316 Am Cdt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis - A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will take place today ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No small craft advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance. Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the period.

FXUS64 KLCH 021757 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1257 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Once again the main story is the severe / flood threat shaping up for much of the CWA today and tomorrow. Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across west and north portions of the CWA Forecast soundings indicate wind and thermal profile supportive of severe weather and flooding threat in southeast Texas and central Louisiana.

The public is urged to monitor weather trends this morning, today, tonight and tomorrow as we work through this potential of severe and flood.

11/Calhoun

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For Sunday, a weak upper level disturbance expected to bring another chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the highest chances across Southeast Texas and Central Louisiana north of U.S. 190. Overnight lows expected in the mid to upper 60s, and afternoon highs in the mid 80s.

By Monday, a large mid to upper level trough over the Western U.S.
expected to lift rapidly northeast, with most of the moisture and lift well north of the region. By Tuesday through Thursday, the mid to upper level pattern will be generally dominated by a large low over the upper Midwest, a building ridge over the Southern Gulf/NW Caribbean, with the Southern U.S. remaining predominately in a zonal flow aloft. Limited moisture and lift resulting in little if any precipitation. Temperatures will be slowly increasing during this period. Expect morning lows in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday, lower to mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday. Afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s Monday, upper 80s to lower 90s Tuesday through Thursday.

08/DML

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Not a lot has changed in the thinking for the aviation forecast.
Low clouds will continue to form over the next few hours with MVFR conditions possibly down to IFR conditions.

After 02/11z or so, the forecast will depend on how the MCS develops over Texas and how it moves across the forecast area. At this time will cover this with TEMPO for storms at KBPT by 02/14z and PROB30 at all remaining terminals starting at KLCH/KAEX at 02/15z and starting at KLFT/KARA at 02/16z.

If the storm complex does make it through, expect IFR conditions with low visibility from heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

Rua

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Ongoing showers and storms will continue for a majority of the period. Some tapering can be expected late tonight into tomorrow morning before another wave ramps up before daybreak.

MARINE
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A brief period of increasing rain chances, winds and seas will take place today ahead of an approaching shortwave trof. No Small Craft Advisory criteria is anticipated with this disturbance.
Otherwise, onshore flow and mild conditions are anticipated through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 80 68 79 65 / 90 50 70 10 LCH 81 70 80 70 / 60 40 50 10 LFT 85 72 82 70 / 50 40 50 10 BPT 82 70 82 71 / 60 50 50 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ027>032-141.

TX...Flood Watch through Friday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516.

GM...None.

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Shell Island
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:59 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:41 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 PM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:54 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:32 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:49 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:11 PM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:43 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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