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GMZ436 Atchafalaya And East Cote Blanche Bays- 1012 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 1012 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis.. The gradient between high pressure centered over the great lakes and a weak trof over the northern gulf of mexico will allow for continued moderate easterly winds and seas. A small craft advisory has been issued for the outer coastal waters through late tonight. The proximity of the trough will also allow for continued development of scattered showers or Thunderstorms over the next couple of days.

FXUS64 KLCH 030312 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1012 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Forecast is generally on track, with this update focused mainly on marine/coastal hazards. First, extended the time of the SCY over the 20-60nm Gulf zones to better align with forecast wind/wind gust grids. Second, tide readings/forecasts at reporting stations along the coast and within Sabine and Calcasieu Lakes support the issuance of a coastal flood advisory through at least the current high tide cycle, which will end late morning to around midday Tuesday. Levels are running around 1 to 1.5 feet above the predicted astronomical tides, yielding actual values of 1 to 2 feet MHHW. Given that the E/SE fetch is expected to persist, additional advisories and/or an extension in time will likely be needed to cover the next high tide cycle as well.

13

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Another warm, but benign weather day continues across the region this afternoon. A weak inverted trof wrapping around the periphery of a large surface high over much of the eastern half of the country has allowed for breezy easterly winds to develop which, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across parts of central Louisiana, is producing dangerous fire weather conditions.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 8 PM this evening for these areas. Guidance is in good agreement that the low level ridge axis will become more tilted tomorrow allowing winds to take on a more south southeasterly flow which will advect some higher moisture back inland yielding somewhat higher RH values. As such, the region will be just above Red Flag Warning criteria. However, conditions are still dry enough to warrant a Fire Danger Statement. Along with the higher moisture, a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out, but these should remain isolated. Little in the way of significant changes into Wednesday, but guidance does have minimum RH values falling back to near 30% Wednesday afternoon. Should this remain consistent, a Red Flag Warning may be needed Wednesday afternoon.

Jones

LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Things have slowed up with the frontal timing from yesterday a bit, but was incorporated into the overnight shift forecast. I did delay pops a bit more during the day Thursday and kept it about the same for Thursday night into Friday morning.

Still expecting a secondary surge on Saturday bring in much drier air and brisk winds. Temperatures are trending down over the weekend and continued to walk those down a bit as well with temperatures near normal to slightly below normal for the weekend into early next week.

Rainfall amounts look very similar to yesterday, however amounts have now trended down in Texas and increased slightly over portions of Louisiana still by no means expecting a drought buster.

27

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high pressure dominates our weather pattern. Winds will be light and from the east/southeast.

MARINE
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

The gradient between high pressure centered over the great lakes and a weak trof over the northern Gulf of Mexico will allow for continued moderate easterly winds and seas. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the outer coastal waters through late tonight.
The proximity of the trough will also allow for continued development of scattered showers or thunderstorms over the next couple of days.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Oct 2 2023

Dewpoints will will continue to range from the lower 50s to the lower 60s this afternoon, yielding RH values in the 25-30% range.
This, combined with easterly winds of 8-12 MPH gusting to 20 MPH will produce conditions favorable for wildfire initiation and rapid expansion. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of southeast Texas, Central and southern Louisiana until 8 PM Today. Dry afternoon conditions will improve modestly tomorrow, but a fire danger statement is in effect for portions of southeast Texas and central Louisiana from 10 AM until 8 PM Tuesday. Dewpoints and relative humidity will drop further across this area Wednesday before a more humid airmass works into the region late in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 62 94 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 68 91 72 89 / 0 20 10 10 LFT 69 93 69 93 / 0 10 0 0 BPT 72 92 75 91 / 10 40 20 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074-241- 252>254.

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday for TXZ615-616.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ470-472-475.

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Shell Island
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Mon -- 12:14 AM CDT     1.50 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:02 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:08 PM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:01 PM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Island, Louisiana, Tide feet

Point Chevreuil
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:10 AM CDT     1.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:53 AM CDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:50 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:09 PM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Point Chevreuil, Louisiana, Tide feet

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