LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

500mb analysis shows a classic omega blocking pattern setting up for the majority of the week as a tropical low moves inland on the east coast, and a series of low pressure systems move towards the Four Corners/Central CONUS from the Pacific NW, resulting in a ridge and ridge axis over the Great Plains/Texas area. This setup will keep SE Texas relatively dry and subsidence will bring daytime temperatures to normal and above normal temperatures for this time of year.
Despite the high pressure setup, southerly surface winds and low- level moisture (particularly in the coastal areas) could result in isolated showers/storms developing along the sea breeze Thursday and Friday.

Low pressure from the Pacific NW will continue to move E this weekend, with high pressure being forced southward into Mexico. The area of low pressure along the E CONUS will come into close proximity with an area of high pressure in the NE CONUS, resulting in a rex block pattern. Here in SE Texas, there will be an increase in mid- upper level PVA as a surface frontal boundary approaches. The combination of PVA and forcing from the incoming frontal boundary will result in an increase in rain chances going into this coming weekend. Have maintained PoPs near the previous forecast as it is still a bit far out in the long-range.

AVIATION
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 638 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

SHRA/TSRA activity is right now around the CLL-UTS-CXO areas. Have included SHRA/TSRA in those TAFs, and will monitor trends for locations further to the S. Rest of the evening/night will be mostly VFR with some fog possible with the light winds in place. Cannot totally rule out isolated MVFR/IFR ceiling development toward morning too, but will not mention in this TAF package. VFR tomorrow with mainly light NW to N winds and few/sct clouds. Might get seabreeze front and associated S to SE wind shift to edge inland in the afternoon. 42

MARINE
Issued at 307 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Winds will briefly shift to the north-northwest this evening/tonight ahead of a passing weak boundary. Isolated showers/storms will also be possible during this time frame. Light to occasionally onshore winds resume by Monday afternoon. Winds will vary between southwesterly and southeasterly throughout the day each day.
Isolated rain/storms are also possible with the best chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 73 95 72 95 / 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 95 75 94 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 86 77 86 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.