Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Port Arthur, TX

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

KLCH radar shows ongoing clusters of storms across interior SE TX, from northern Hardin County across Tyler into northern Jasper County. One isolated strong to occasionally severe storm has been noted trekking across southeast Tyler County into Jasper County and is now approaching Newton County. Meanwhile, bands of heavier rain to the west of this cell have resulted in a risk of flash flooding across southern Tyler County (with a FFW now in effect).
With convection continuing to develop and train across this area, flash flooding will continue to be possible and additional warnings may become necessary.

This activity was occurring in the vicinity of a slow-moving frontal boundary that extended from N LA across E TX to west of Houston, and aided by a passing impulse aloft traversing the base of a trough lifting NE across the midwest.

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through much of the week as the front stalls and dissipates over the region while intermittent disturbances propagate east amid prevailing westerly flow aloft.

SHORT TERM
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

The frontal boundary will gradually stall across E TX today as the parent shortwave trough lifts further northeast. Moisture/lift in the vicinity of the boundary will keep shower and thunderstorm chances elevated across our SE TX zones north of I-10 into W and central LA. While pockets of heavier rainfall will be possible, excessive rainfall is not anticipated, and amounts will generally stay around an inch or less. Storms will likewise stay below severe limits, given weak forcing and modest shear over the region. Rain chances should begin to diminish by late afternoon into the evening and daytime heating wanes. Moisture will remain plentiful over the region the next couple of days, with PWATs ranging from 1.4 to 1.6 inches (approaching the 90th percentile). Daytime heating combined with weak disturbances translating over the region and minimal capping will lead to a daily uptick in PoPs through Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected, mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor.

For temperatures, today's highs will be slightly lower in areas with thicker cloud cover/higher rain chances with warmer temps in areas that should have less rain and possibly a few breaks in the overcast. The cooler areas will likely only reach the middle to upper 70s, while warmer areas across S central LA are expected to reach the middle 80s. Otherwise, highs Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to reach the lower to middle 80s while overnight lows will only fall into the upper 60s each night.

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LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Unsettled conditions will persist through Friday, with daily scattered showers and storms expected. Mid to upper level ridging will begin to build over the NW Gulf coast through the latter half of the long term period, with rain chances decreasing. This will also keep any fronts well north of the area, thus unusually warm and humid conditions will continue with highs in the middle to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

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AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Widespread clouds across the area this morning were resulting in MVFR to IFR cigs at area terminals. A band of weak SHRA could approach AEX over the next few hours, but otherwise convection has remained away from the airports. There is a low chance that storms across SE TX could reach BPT later this morning, but confidence is too low to insert more than VC at this time. Cigs should improve the VFR through late morning into midday, then prevail through late tonight when low clouds and patchy fog are expected to develop, yielding MVFR to IFR conditions. Southerly winds less than 10 KT can be expected today with winds becoming light to near calm this evening.

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MARINE
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Light to moderate southeast winds will continue for several days, with no signals for any change in the pattern. Seas are expected to range from 2 to 4 feet through the week. No headlines are anticipated at this time.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 81 64 84 64 / 60 30 70 20 LCH 83 68 83 69 / 40 10 50 10 LFT 85 69 84 69 / 30 10 60 10 BPT 82 68 84 69 / 60 10 50 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.