LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday as the upper-level ridge remains centered over the Western Gulf Coast. Afternoon high temperatures will again be in the low to mid 90s along and north of the US-59 corridor, and then mid to upper 80s along the coast with heat indices rising into the upper 90s and into the triple digits for much of the area. The ridge of high pressure will continue to limit any afternoon shower or thunderstorm development. This high pressure will gradually move further east into the Gulf through the week, and possibly weaken - but guidance is rather uncertain on the future strength of this ridge.

With the weakening subsidence aloft, we will see a very gradual lowering of temperatures through the week - but still above normal.
High temperatures on Monday will be about 1-2 degrees cooler than Sunday, then dropping another 1-2 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday with much of the area getting high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Not much of a cool down, but its something. The overnight temperatures will still continue to be much above normal with lows in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and then mid to upper 70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. The lower heights aloft will also allow for the return of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop, especially along the seabreeze. So there is a slight chance to a chance of rainfall each afternoon generally along and south of I-45.

NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Caribbean and gives it a Medium, 40%, chance of development within the next 7 days as it approaches the Yucatan. There is still much uncertainty with this system, which hasn't even formed yet, and the upper level pattern as we go into the end of next week. Main takeaway is just continue to follow the official forecasts from the NHC through the next several days.

Fowler

AVIATION
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Low CIGs and fog contributing to LIFR conditions at CLL and IFR conditions at LBX. Otherwise mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions ongoing. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by late morning, with VFR and light winds prevailing through the day. Afternoon sea breeze will bring SE winds above 10kts along the coast and in Houston later in the day. Similar conditions expected in the morning hours Saturday with low CIGs and VSBYs leading to mixture of MVFR/IFR conditions.

MARINE
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day, then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low seas (1-3ft) will continue through the weekend and into next week.
There will be increased chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters beginning Sunday night and continue through at least midweek next week.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 97 74 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.