Saturday, November28, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Channelview, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 5:22PM Saturday November 28, 2020 9:41 PM CST (03:41 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 5:17AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 824 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough becoming choppy after midnight. A slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the evening. Showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the late evening and overnight. Patchy fog in the late evening and overnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. Patchy fog early in the morning. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds around 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers late.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered showers.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated showers.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 824 Pm Cst Sat Nov 28 2020
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A cold front will linger near the coast tonight with periods of rain and isolated Thunderstorms as upper level disturbances pass overhead. A coastal low will move northeastward into the upper texas coastal waters tonight. As this passes, it will drag the front well offshore. Moderate to strong offshore ene winds and high seas will occur north of the front...over the coastal waters then turning offshore after low passes overnight and early Sunday. Onshore flow will resume and increase Tuesday ahead of the next front expected toward midweek. Offshore flow will develop behind this next front. Low water conditions will be possible with the strong offshore flow...especially Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channelview, TX
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location: 29.77, -95.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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FXUS64 KHGX 282335 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 535 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020

AVIATION.

Another night of low ceilings and reduced visibility with SE TX TAF sites on the east side of a slow moving upper trough and the north side of a developing low over South Texas. Periods of light rain will persist for much of the night with weak isentropic upglide. Removed thunder from the TAFs since instability looks weak. It also appears that the best low level focus for convergence will shift east over the Gulf. Drying should commence between 09-11z as the sfc low scoots toward LA. IFR cigs should begin to mix out early Sunday with a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings for the afternoon. Wrap around clouds will briefly affect northern TAF sites Sunday aftn. Winds will also increase on Sunday and have added gust groups. 43

PREV DISCUSSION. /ISSUED 357 PM CST Sat Nov 28 2020/

DISCUSSION .

SHORT TERM [Through Sunday] .

It's quite a sight on WV imagery, as a plume of Pacific moisture interactions with an upper low over the Texas Panhandle to fuel a large, continuous swath of rain over the Texas Gulf Coast today. Fortunately, the rain has largely been light to moderate, with rain rates around or less than a quarter inch per hour in our portion of Southeast Texas. So, while rain continues to pile up slowly, it is not occurring quickly enough to spark any flash flooding concerns. We are already seeing, and will continue to see responses in area rivers and bayous as the ground becomes increasingly saturated and runoff increases with it. However, even here, the relaxed rainfall rates are helping to mitigate riverine flood concerns as well.

At the surface, a low pressure center is forming up off the lower Texas coast in the coastal trough zone. Expect it to ride up the coastline, likely a little bit offshore towards Southwest Louisiana through the night. Where the low tracks will be pretty important for continued flooding potential through the night. Right now, it appears that the low will be far enough offshore that the greatest low level convergence, and thus, the heaviest rain, will fall offshore over the Gulf. That's good! But, it would not take a big left deviation in the low's track to shove that zone of convergence back over the immediate coast. That's bad. We'll have to continue to watch the precise track and the evolution of tonight's rainfall, and stand ready to make adjustments to the forecast quickly if it becomes apparent that the low is moving closer to the coastline, which could modestly increase our concern for flooding coastward of I-10 . That's good (the being ready part, that is).

Around or a little after dawn, the surface low will have moved far enough to the northeast that the rain shield will exit stage right, and winds will back to northwesterly as higher pressure moves into the picture from the northwest. This will strengthen the northwest winds and make them gusty. At the same time, an upper trough in the northern stream will dig into the Great Plains, linking up with the exiting Pacific upper closed low. This will create a path for modified arctic air to surge into the region - and though the coldest air will miss us to the east, we are likely to see the strongest cold advection of the season, and will largely fight the sun from a clearing sky to a draw. So Saturday's high, Sunday morning's low, and Sunday afternoon's high are liable to be within about 10 degrees of each other.

LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Saturday] .

Not a lot of changes with the expectation of colder weather for this part of the forecast as a series of cold fronts move through the CWA in succession. The first front on Sun night will help to clear these persistent overcast cloud decks . but the colder temperatures should hold until Mon night/Tues morning given the decreased northerly flow and clear skies. Freezing/just below freezing temperatures are going to be likely and Freeze Warnings are probably going to be needed for much of the CWA.

As the surface high moves east, onshore winds are set to return Tues afternoon/evening. And then with the next upper low moving down from the Rockies, the tightening gradient will help to draw moisture back into the region from the Gulf. Rain chances will be increasing again by Weds as the upper low tracks across the state. This system should drag the next cold front through the area by Weds night with another period of colder temperatures for the rest of next week.

MARINE .

Did upgrade the SCEC for the offshore waters to an SCA earlier today given the trends of elevated/gusty winds and building seas from this morning and the likelihood of the coastal low developing near/around the middle TX coast tonight. And as such, the ongoing showers (along with some very isolated thunderstorms) should persist over the near/ offshore waters tonight. In the wake of this system (as it passes to the ENE), a strong cold front should be moving well into the coastal waters tomorrow. Moderate/strong northerly winds should keep SCEC or SCA flags in place through Mon. We'll also need to monitor the tides for the potential for low water conditions around the bays late Sun into Mon. Brief return of onshore winds are forecast to resume Tues with the next cold front currently on the books for late Weds/Thur.

HYDROLOGY .

Rain rates so far today have stayed very manageable, mitigating the flash flood threat across the area. However, we've still seen 2-5 inches of rain pile up over a broad area, with localized higher amounts. And though our dry conditions have meant a greater amount of that rain could soak into the ground, several more hours of light to moderate rain means runoff should increase. This will likely be seen in levels of area rivers and bayous.

For now, only points on the San Bernard River are forecast to rise to action or minor flood stage given the rainfall we've seen and what is expected to fall yet. However, we are seeing river levels rise across the area as rain continues to fall.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. College Station (CLL) 50 59 37 52 28 / 70 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 56 62 41 53 33 / 80 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 66 47 55 44 / 90 30 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. TX . NONE. GM . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM . Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM . Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM . Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.



Discussion . 99 Aviation/Marine . 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 8 mi54 min ESE 15 G 18 66°F 69°F1015.6 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 10 mi54 min ESE 6 G 12 67°F 73°F1015.3 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 22 mi54 min ESE 17 G 21 68°F 69°F1015.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 34 mi60 min E 21 G 23 68°F 69°F1014.9 hPa
GRRT2 34 mi54 min ESE 18 G 25 65°F 69°F1015.4 hPa
GTOT2 35 mi54 min ESE 9.9 G 18 65°F 70°F1015.4 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 35 mi54 min ESE 13 G 17 66°F 66°F1016.8 hPa
HIST2 39 mi60 min E 5.1 G 7 65°F 69°F1016.8 hPa
LUIT2 48 mi54 min ENE 24 G 29 64°F 69°F1014.9 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX11 mi52 minE 127.00 miOvercast66°F64°F94%1015.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX13 mi49 minESE 1010.00 miLight Rain67°F63°F87%1016.1 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX17 mi47 minESE 1110.00 miOvercast64°F62°F94%1015.6 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX19 mi49 minESE 9 G 167.00 miLight Rain66°F62°F87%1016 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX20 mi49 minNNE 67.00 miLight Rain61°F59°F93%1016.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEFD

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10E8NE3E7E9E10E7NE6NE6NE6E6N7E9NE8E8E8E7NE8E7E11E11E7SE6E12
1 day agoCalmE3SE7CalmE4NE3E4E3SE3SE10S7S6S7CalmS4S4S4NW8N8NE6E5NE5--NE7
2 days agoNE4N4N4N4--NE3NE6NE6NE6NE5N3E7E8E8E7--E7E7E8E8--E6E6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:16 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:56 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:01 PM CST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:28 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:20 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:57 PM CST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.11.111110.90.80.70.50.40.20.10.10.10.30.50.70.91.11.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Point Barrow, Trinity Bay, Texas
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Point Barrow
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM CST     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:55 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:05 AM CST     0.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:22 PM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:19 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM CST     1.10 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.80.80.90.9110.90.80.60.30.20.10.10.10.30.40.60.811.11.11.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current



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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.