Thursday, August13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Belle Chasse, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 7:44PM Thursday August 13, 2020 9:03 PM CDT (02:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:11AMMoonset 2:19PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 340 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the late morning and afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 340 Pm Cdt Thu Aug 13 2020
Synopsis..Weak high pressure will prevail across the northeastern gulf of mexico through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Belle Chasse, LA
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location: 29.78, -90     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 132353 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 653 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020

AVIATION UPDATE. updated for 00z taf issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 343 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2020/

DISCUSSION .

SHORT TERM .

Today has been relatively active across our CWA with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Latest radar trends indicate that peak intensities and coverage have likely been reached and its downhill from here. That will take several hours to do-so and meso models show this trend. Until storms dissipate, the main threat expected is heavy rainfall and lighting. In terms of how heavy, at times hourly rainfall rates have reached upwards to 2 to 4 inches. Thus, could see flood advisories and possibly a flash flood warning issued. High temperatures have reached the upper 80s to low 90s and are not expected to raise any further today. PoPs and Wx grids for the rest of this afternoon and evening were adjusted to reflect our current conditions because it was showing a way too dry bias. Tonight, we may see some scattered showers and thunderstorms lingering around the area. There is a chance for some pop up showers and thunderstorms during the midnight hours. Low temperatures are expected to cool down overnight to the mid to upper 70s. Winds are still expected to behave through the night into tomorrow. Tomorrow, we should see PoPs rapidly increasing beginning just after sunrise. Can expect scattered thunderstorms throughout the day and it may last through the evening and overnight hours. Heavy rainfall continues to be the main impact expected. Saturday, it may take a little longer for convection to start up; it just depends on how soon we heat up. /TDB/

LONG TERM .

Once we get into Sunday, medium range models diverge somewhat in how troughing affects the local area. The models are still in a bit of conflict with each other about whether or not we will see mostly dry or wet days in the beginning of the week. The GFS and the EURO runs mentioned previously are now not lining up very well with expected conditions. The Euro now has us drying out Monday and Tuesday and the GFS is still allowing for a band of convection to come through. The NBM guidance is also showing a good chance for drier conditions, some convection cannot be ruled out as of today. We are still aligned with the neighboring offices, so we will continue to monitor this situation. /TDB/

MARINE .

Outside of the usual nocturnal thunderstorms, there are no major threats expected. With the cold front moving into our area early next week; if the front makes it to the Gulf early enough it may potentially allow for our winds to ramp up, but we will continue to monitor it. Otherwise, expecting winds less than 10 knots and seas less than 2 feet.

MEFFER

AVIATION . Most ongoing convection today is currently dissipating. Tomorrow will have the similar pattern of late morning to afternoon scattered to numerous thunderstorms. Terminals impacted by storms could see IFR conditions for both visibility and ceilings along with gusty winds. These should taper off around sunset. Additionally, ceilings outside of any storms could remain around low VFR to MVFR. -BL



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 74 89 75 91 / 60 70 20 50 BTR 76 92 77 93 / 50 70 20 50 ASD 76 92 75 93 / 60 80 30 70 MSY 78 91 78 92 / 50 70 30 60 GPT 77 89 77 90 / 50 70 40 70 PQL 76 90 75 91 / 50 80 50 70

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CARL1 13 mi76 min 87°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 18 mi76 min 83°F 89°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 18 mi76 min 82°F 91°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 22 mi76 min 79°F 88°F
FREL1 32 mi76 min 76°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 36 mi76 min 90°F
KXPY 47 mi24 min S 4.1 84°F 77°F

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA4 mi69 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F78°F97%1013.8 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi71 minS 510.00 miFair83°F75°F77%1013.5 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA19 mi71 minVar 410.00 miOvercast80°F75°F85%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBG

Wind History from NBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6S4W3SW4S5S7CalmNE3SW4SW3
1 day agoSE7SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmE13SW6W5NE3CalmCalmNW5N5CalmE6SE10W6N3S8W4NW3Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW3CalmNE3N3SW3N8E3E44CalmE10

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:03 AM CDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:42 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:08 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.11.21.31.31.31.21.110.90.70.60.50.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:09 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:16 AM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:10 PM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.70.80.911.21.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.21.10.90.70.60.40.30.20.20.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.