Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Abbeville, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 8:03PM Thursday July 29, 2021 11:23 AM CDT (16:23 UTC) Moonrise 10:53PMMoonset 10:49AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 945 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Rest of today..East winds up to 5 knots becoming south around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..Northwest winds up to 5 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth increasing to a light chop in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 945 Am Cdt Thu Jul 29 2021
Synopsis.. Light onshore flow is expected through the period. Expect daily chances for shower and Thunderstorm activity. Locally higher winds and seas, along with cloud to water lightning can be expected near the storms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Abbeville, LA
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location: 29.79, -92.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 291534 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1034 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021

DISCUSSION. Wx map shows weak surface Bermuda high pressure ridge a little further north across the Carolinas to OK/AR. This is keeping light north to northwest winds across the region, and a land breeze across the coastal waters. Radar showing scattered showers mainly across the 20-60nm marine zones this morning south of the land breeze boundary. This is where most of the activity will continue this morning and diminish by the afternoon. Lowered the chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms to 30% or less across inland areas as latest shortterm guidance shows slightly less coverage expected. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s now expected to rise into the lower/mid 90s by mid to late afternoon. Heat index values expected to rise in the 105-110 range once again. Heat Advisory continues through 7 PM. No other updates needed at this time.

DML

AVIATION. Mostly clear skies across the terminals this morning. Expecting scattered layer around 4000-5000ft and scattered TSRA begins later this afternoon across the area. No prevailing visibility or ceiling restrictions expected, continued VCTS at all terminals through 01z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 616 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/

DISCUSSION .

For 07/29/2021 12Z TAF Issuance.

AVIATION .

Radar showing a few very widely isolated nocturnal showers, though nothing impacting area terminals. Observations do show a bit of patchy ground mist/fog, primarily near AEX/BPT, and expect this to begin to lift following sunrise. For today, light variable winds become a little more southerly by the afternoon hours. While a shower or two is possible this morning, expecting isolated to scattered thunderstorms to become a bit more numerous this afternoon . Though still not too widespread. Conditions should prevail VFR aside from if any thunderstorm does manage to directly impact a terminal. Showers/storms fizzle by the evening with light and variable to calm winds once again overnight. Could see some patchy mist/fog once again after midnight. Guidance indicating better confidence at AEX, so only included slight VIS reduction there accordingly.

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PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 29 2021/

DISCUSSION .

SHORT TERM [Today through Saturday Night] .

A few spotty nocturnal thundershowers popping up in interior TX this morning, but otherwise dry across the region. Can't entirely rule out a couple more developing, but overall think the odds are favorable that we'll remain dry. Aside from that, given the mild/ muggy conditions and calm winds, once again seeing some patchy low level fog/mist. So far areal observations indicate this is isn't too dense or widespread, and expect this to be the case going forward . Though a few denser spots prior to sunrise are possible.

A broad upper level high is noted via GOES-16 WV imagery centered in the central Plains, and this will continue to be the primary forecast element for the next few days. This leaves the forecast region situated on the southern periphery of the high again today . Close enough to keep temps on the warmer side of things, but far enough away to allow weak impulses of energy rotating around it to aid in afternoon convective development. Like yesterday though, guidance suggests dry mid-level air associated with the high might help serve as a hindrance to widespread convective development. While not overly abundant, a little more consensus present in high resolution guidance that we'll see a bit more activity today, so PoPs are accordingly just slightly higher. That said, activity is still expected to be scattered in nature, and probably not sufficient to limit the expected afternoon heat. While some mixing could also help knock dew points back down a degree or two this afternoon, still looks like overall a pretty good shot for fairly widespread 105-110 heat indices. To that end, once again opting to issue an areawide Heat Advisory today out of an abundance of caution. As always if spending time outdoors, stay hydrated, take frequent breaks if possible, and find some means to cool off.

Overall, this pattern of weather is expected to continue through the remainder of the short term period. Weak westerly moving impulses around the periphery of the upper high along with the daily sea- breeze will continue to aid in scattered afternoon convective development. Temperatures will also continue to run a bit above seasonal normals, and the combination of heat and humidity will likely continue to yield afternoon heat indices in the 105-110 range. One caveat of uncertainty to point out though is a stronger westerly wave modeled by the GFS a bit closer to the region on Saturday than in comparison to the ECMWF. In that scenario, could see a bit more precip/cloud cover and thus temps a bit more moderated. For now, leaned towards the drier and warmer solution.

While the local weather will remain largely unchanged, the overall upper level pattern does at least begin to shift on Saturday as the upper high begins to feel the influence of increasing troughing into eastern CONUS.

50

LONG TERM [Sunday through Wednesday] .

Ridging aloft will be undergoing steady erosion heading into the latter half of the weekend, as jet energy diving south through the Plains into the Lower MS River valley begins to carve out a highly amplified ERN CONUS trof. Height falls SUN will be relatively modest, and with a SW low level flow around a low/mid level ridge axis stretching across the Gulf, still expecting above normal temperatures with rain chances not too much above those on SAT.

That will all change by MON, however, as the ERN CONUS trof continues to dig and a frontal boundary approaches the region from the north. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to precede and accompany this weak boundary as it sags into interior SE TX and Central LA MON afternoon. Frontal progress will slow MON night into TUE, until a secondary surge of jet energy nudges the boundary near or just offshore the coast TUE night into WED morning. Very high rain chances will persist through this time period, with rain chances starting to decrease beyond WED as some relatively drier air works in from the north. The widespread cloud cover and PCPN will hold temperatures at or below seasonal normals through the early to mid week period.

13

MARINE .

Light onshore flow is expected through the period. Expect daily chances for shower and thunderstorm activity. Locally higher winds and seas, along with cloud to water lightning can be expected near the storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. AEX 97 77 97 77 / 30 10 20 0 LCH 94 77 93 77 / 30 10 40 10 LFT 94 77 95 77 / 30 10 40 10 BPT 94 77 93 76 / 30 10 30 10

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ027>033-041>045- 052>055-073-074.

TX . Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ180-201-215-216- 259>262.

GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 19 mi53 min N 4.1 G 6
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 49 mi53 min NNW 1 G 2.9 94°F 86°F1018.1 hPa
EINL1 49 mi53 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 86°F 86°F1018.1 hPa79°F
KSCF 49 mi48 min NE 9.9 86°F 75°F
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 49 mi53 min NE 1.9 G 5.1 86°F 85°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Abbeville Chris Crusta Memorial Airport, LA13 mi28 minNNE 5 miPartly Cloudy89°F74°F61%1018.3 hPa
Acadiana Regional Airport, LA22 mi30 minN 510.00 miMostly Cloudy89°F79°F72%1018 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for K7R4

Wind History from 7R4 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------NW5
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Cypremort Point, Louisiana
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Cypremort Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:59 AM CDT     0.70 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:18 AM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM CDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:41 PM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:08 PM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:51 PM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:17 PM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.70.70.60.50.60.70.80.91110.90.80.80.80.60.70.70.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:52 AM CDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM CDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:48 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:40 PM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.50.40.40.50.60.811.11.21.21.10.90.80.70.60.60.60.60.80.91

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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