Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spring Ridge, FL

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts Atlantic high pressure (1025 millibars) centered near Bermuda, with this feature extending its axis westward across our region
Aloft
ridging was centered over the northwestern Bahamas and the FL peninsula, while a slow moving trough was progressing across the Ozarks and the Mid- Mississippi Valley. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep tropical moisture remains entrenched across our area, with PWATs generally around 2 inches.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were overspreading locations along and north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon, with more isolated coverage thus far for areas closer to the deep-layered ridge axis across north central FL. Brisk low level southerly flow, noted in this morning's sounding at Jacksonville, was steering convection generally northward around 15-20 mph.
Temperatures at 19Z have climbed to the lower 90s at inland locations where conditions remain dry, with 80s elsewhere.
Dewpoints remain in the 70s area-wide.

NEAR TERM
(through Tonight)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

An abundance of tropical moisture across our region will continue to foster and increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms over much of our area through this evening. Colliding mesoscale boundaries may result in a few storms pulsing, with a few wet microbursts possibly producing brief wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range, along with frequent lightning strikes and torrential downpours. Storm motion around 15 knots should limit the potential for widespread flooding, but a few instances of "training" downpours, falling repeatedly over the same locations, could result in localized flooding later this afternoon through early this evening, especially if these repeated downpours occur at urban or normally flood prone, low-lying locations. The Weather Prediction Center has thus included most of our area within a "Marginal" Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall this afternoon and evening.

Convection late this afternoon that will likely concentrate along the U.S. Highway 301 corridor should shift back towards I-95 early this evening as anvils get steered by the higher altitude southwesterly flow pattern. Most activity will dissipate or shift offshore by midnight, with debris cloudiness gradually thinning out during the predawn hours. Low level south to southwesterly flow will keep lows in the low to mid 70s inland, ranging to the mid and upper 70s at coastal locations.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Surface high pressure will be centered to the east northeast Saturday, and more directly to the east Saturday night through Sunday night. The position of the high will make subtle changes in the low level flow, but the result will roughly be the same. The east coast sea breeze will push past I-95, and diurnal convection will initiate across the area. The axis of the upper ridge will be just south of the region. With light flow from the southwest in the afternoons, and the flow north of upper ridge also from the southwest, storms which develop will drift to the east northeast.
So, even if the convection develops west of an area due to the sea breeze, that area could have it move back in later in the day.

Afternoon convection coverage will be scattered to numerous.
Precipitation will diminish during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Surface high pressure will be east of the region through Wednesday, with daily convection expected due to diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions. The position of the upper ridge overhead will provide subsidence to help limit strength of activity.
Temperatures will run about 5 degrees above normal through Wednesday.

The pattern changes for Thursday into Friday. The surface high will become centered more to the east southeast, as a surface trough moves into the southeastern US. An upper trough will also dig into the southeastern US late in the week as well, helping to increase instability with increased potential for stronger storms.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms late in the week.
Temperatures will be about 5 to 7 degrees above normal Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

The 06Z TAF period will begin with ceilings that are VFR levels as leftover mid and high clouds slide north and east into the Atlantic through sunrise. Shallow fog at VQQ will bring prevailing IFR restrictions with tempo restriction to VLIFR at times 07-11Z.

Light south to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots will resume a few hours after sunrise later today expected as Bermuda ridge axis sinks into central FL with some energy aloft supporting more numerous showers and thunderstorms developing by midday to early afternoon with highest storm chances from 20-24Z as the Gulf seabreeze presses well inland and merges with a more pinned Atlantic seabreeze that will turn winds south to southeasterly 6-10 knots after 18Z at CRG and JAX and by 16Z at SSI and SGJ. Thunderstorms will bring tempo restrictions for MVFR ceilings and visibility in heavier storms with gusty winds to 25 knots, but could potentially be a bit higher locally. Storms will abate after 00Z with lingering mid and high level clouds through the end of the period tonight with light southerly winds.

MARINE
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Atlantic high pressure centered near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis across our local waters through the weekend. This weather pattern will create a prevailing southerly wind flow, with afternoon sea breezes over the near shore waters bringing speeds up to Caution levels, while a southerly wind surge results in Caution conditions offshore this evening. Late afternoon and evening thunderstorms are likely across our local waters through Saturday, with coverage then expected to decrease slightly from Sunday through the middle portions of next week. Seas of 2 to 4 feet will prevail throughout our local waters outside of thunderstorm activity during the next several days.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds developing following the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon will combine with a weak east-southeasterly swell and a southerly long shore current to create a moderate risk at all area beaches through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1129 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Breezy southerly transport winds will create good daytime dispersion values at most inland locations this afternoon, with breezy onshore winds this afternoon at coastal locations yielding fair daytime dispersion values. Transport winds will shift to southwesterly during the weekend, with gradually decreasing speeds generally yielding fair values on Saturday. Elevated mixing heights on Sunday will create good daytime dispersion values across inland portions of southeast GA, with fair values forecast elsewhere. Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with a gradual decrease in coverage expected during the early and middle portions of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 89 72 90 73 / 60 20 70 30 SSI 85 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40 JAX 91 74 92 73 / 70 30 80 30 SGJ 89 75 90 74 / 60 40 80 30 GNV 91 73 92 73 / 60 20 90 20 OCF 91 73 92 73 / 60 20 90 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.