Carrabelle, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

June 15, 2024 3:26 PM EDT (19:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:42 PM
Moonrise 1:57 PM   Moonset 1:21 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:202406160415;;071860 Fzus52 Ktae 151907 Cwftae
coastal waters forecast for florida national weather service tallahassee fl 307 pm edt Sat jun 15 2024
gulf coastal waters from the mouth of the suwannee river to okaloosa-walton county line out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-160415- coastal waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm- waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm- waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm- 307 pm edt Sat jun 15 2024 /207 pm cdt Sat jun 15 2024/

This afternoon - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.

Sunday - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 8 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.

Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday - East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail: east 3 feet at 4 seconds and south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Monday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet, occasionally to 8 feet. Wave detail: southeast 5 feet at 5 seconds and south 2 feet at 8 seconds. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Tuesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday - East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.

Wednesday night - East winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet, occasionally to 9 feet. Protected waters rough. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 307 Pm Edt Sat Jun 15 2024

Synopsis -
gentle to moderate southeast breezes will continue into Sunday. An unseasonable round of fresh to strong easterly breezes will get underway on Monday and continue through Wednesday, as pressure gradients tighten between strong high pressure off the u.s. Mid- atlantic coast and a deepening area of tropical low pressure over the bay of campeche. Seas will build in response to this and may lead to a few rounds of small craft advisory conditions. Showers and storms will be possible each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 151756 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 156 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

No major changes to today's forecast were required. Rain chances were tweaked at the hourly level to account for the latest trends.
The best convective potential remains over the SE FL Big Bend where a pool of moisture sits on the northern fringe of an inverted trough near Dry Tortugas.

The 12Z KTAE sounding depicts an unseasonably dry airmass with Precipitable Water of 1.23". However, 850-mb temperatures are 18.4 C, which is about the 90th percentile, per SPC sounding climatology. The combination of those factors amidst developing surface high pressure + 500-mb ridge heights at 587 dm (daily mean) supports a hot afternoon characterized by triple-digit heat.
Please use caution if outdoors.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The main story today will be hot and dry weather. At 500 mb, a lobe of high pressure will move across the Southeast States and strengthen through tonight. 500 mb heights will be near 5900 meters by this afternoon over the forecast area, with positive 500 mb height anomalies strengthening from the Tennessee Valley northward. The warm and dry mid-level air will keep cloud coverage low and shut down prospects for PM convection north of the FL state line. So peak June solar insolation will have no trouble boosting inland high temperatures into the 95-100 degree range.
From a heat index standpoint, inland dewpoints in the 60s will only add a couple degrees to the feels-like temperature. For a few spots closer to the coast, where the seabreeze will come with muggy dewpoints into the mid 70s, a few localized spots could eek out heat index values in the 105-109 range. Coverage of such heat index values will be too isolated to justify issuance of a Heat Advisory.

While most of the forecast area will remain rain-free this PM, the SE Big Bend could be the main exception. Satellite-derived Precipitable Water (PW) imagery shows the northern edge of deeper moisture extending up into Dixie, Taylor and Lafayette Counties.
PW values there are in the 1.5-1.7 inch range, with even moister values just on the other side of the Lower Suwannee River. This corner of the forecast area will be furthest from the suppressive effects of the building 500 mb high to the north, and PW values in excess of 1.5 inches support the notion of afternoon thunderstorm development along the seabreeze front just inland of the Nature Coast.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday and Sunday night)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A temporary return of deeper and richer moisture is expected on Sunday. An inverted surface trough is currently located over the southeast Gulf, not far north of the Yucatan Channel. This feature will move northwest to the Louisiana coast on Sunday, bringing a turn of our 1000-700 mb layer flow out of the southeast. In response, deep and rich tropical moisture characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches over the far southeast Gulf will spread northward and northwestward. This will encompass most of the forecast area on Sunday, most notably areas along and south of a Dothan-Valdosta line. Therefore, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will bubble up in daytime heating for all but areas north of U.S. Hwy 82, where convection will be more isolated.

The increase in clouds and convection during the afternoon will bring a downward trend in high temperatures, though most places will still be a couple degrees above normal.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Strong low-mid level high pressure will become anchored along and just off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, persisting for most of next week. Meanwhile, a tropical low pressure system is likely to be deepening over the Bay of Campeche in the early-mid week time frame, as reflected in the NHC Tropical Weather Outlook.
The service area will find itself in a pretty tight pressure gradient between these two features, with unseasonably strong easterly breezes developing on Monday and then continuing until about Friday.

Dry air emanating from the strong U.S. Mid-Atlantic high will spread across the forecast area on Monday in the anti-cyclonic easterly flow. The dry air should fully encompass the area on Tuesday and Wednesday. Though the official forecast still includes isolated PM convection on Tuesday and Wednesday over our FL counties, ensemble mean PW values well below 1.5 inches suggest the potential for convective shutdown on those days.

Rain chances start to slowly creep up on Thursday and Friday, as an easterly wave is likely to track from the Bahamas across the FL Peninsula and start increasing moisture from the southeast. Timing of the easterly wave is still all over the place in various pieces of guidance, so the forecast just reflects a modest broad-brush day-to-day increase in convective coverage on Thursday and Friday, with the greatest increase over our Florida and south-central Georgia counties.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Terminals should remain VFR thru the period with mostly dry wx today and tonight. A field of 050-080 cumulus should dissipate after sunset. East to SE winds 10 kts or less go lgt/vrb this evening. This afternoon's seabreeze induces a southerly wind at ECP/TLH. By tmrw morning, convection spreads onshore from the Gulf, so intro'd SHRA for the FL TAF sites starting at 12Z in addition to a thunder PROB30 group from 15Z onward.

MARINE
Issued at 1120 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting easterly winds at 10 kts with 1-2-ft seas and a dominant period of 6-7 seconds late this morning.

From CWF Synopsis...Gentle to moderate southeast breezes will develop later today and continue on Sunday, in response to a low pressure trough moving from the southeast Gulf to the north- central Gulf Coast. An unseasonable round of fresh to strong easterly breezes will get underway on Monday and continue through Wednesday, as pressure gradients tighten between strong high pressure off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast and a deepening area of tropical low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Above normal temperatures will prevail through at least the middle of next week, along with inland areas of high dispersion each afternoon. Meanwhile, a dry air mass will hang on over inland areas today, bringing another round of Min RH values in the 30-35 percent range. Some moistening of the air mass will occur on Sunday, coming with an increase in coverage of afternoon thunderstorms. But then a drying northeast to east wind will begin on Monday. In fact by tame summertime standards, some uncommonly gusty winds will begin on Monday and persist for much of next week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 427 AM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Significant or widespread flooding is not expected for the next 7 days. As is common in the summer, the only minor concern is for intense rainfall rates beneath the core of scattered thunderstorms which could bring short-lived and very localized runoff issues.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 94 74 95 / 20 50 20 20 Panama City 77 89 76 92 / 20 50 20 30 Dothan 74 94 74 93 / 10 50 20 20 Albany 74 96 74 95 / 10 30 20 20 Valdosta 73 97 73 95 / 10 40 20 20 Cross City 72 94 71 95 / 20 60 20 30 Apalachicola 79 87 78 89 / 30 50 30 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 13 mi87 minESE 8 87°F 30.0178°F
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi57 minSE 7G8.9 85°F 86°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi153 minSSE 7G8.9 87°F 29.9676°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi87 min 83°F 29.98


Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAAF APALACHICOLA RGNLCLEVE RANDOLPH FIELD,FL 21 sm33 minSE 0910 smPartly Cloudy90°F77°F67%29.95
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Wind History graph: AAF
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
   
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Carrabelle
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:31 AM EDT     1.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:07 PM EDT     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:41 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:06 PM EDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
1.4
1
am
1.2
2
am
1
3
am
0.8
4
am
0.7
5
am
0.8
6
am
1
7
am
1.3
8
am
1.5
9
am
1.8
10
am
1.9
11
am
1.9
12
pm
1.8
1
pm
1.6
2
pm
1.3
3
pm
1.1
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
0.8
6
pm
0.9
7
pm
1
8
pm
1.2
9
pm
1.3
10
pm
1.5
11
pm
1.5


Tide / Current for Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida
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Turkey Point
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Sat -- 02:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:29 AM EDT     1.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:56 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:08 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:13 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
2
1
am
1.7
2
am
1.5
3
am
1.4
4
am
1.4
5
am
1.6
6
am
1.8
7
am
2.2
8
am
2.5
9
am
2.7
10
am
2.8
11
am
2.7
12
pm
2.4
1
pm
2.1
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
1.4
4
pm
1.2
5
pm
1.1
6
pm
1.2
7
pm
1.4
8
pm
1.6
9
pm
1.9
10
pm
2.2
11
pm
2.3


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Tallahassee, FL,




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