Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Carrabelle, FL

NEAR TERM
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

A weak upper level trough over southwest Georgia and north Florida is slowly weakening this afternoon as another larger upper level trough slowly translates east through Thursday. Northeasterly upper level flow at 250mb has thrown off cloud debris to the southwest this afternoon and this cloud cover has limited the amount of instability able to develop across much of the area.
Because of this, much of the activity so far has been on the edge of this cloud debris across southeast Alabama, the Panhandle, and into the Florida Big Bend. Have left POPs mostly in place for this afternoon but wouldn't be surprised if, in areas under the thicker anvil cloud debris, activity largely doesn't develop this afternoon. Convective activity should eventually wane through the evening with activity likely lingering a little longer across our inland zones in Alabama/Georgia closer to the incoming upper level trough.

For Thursday, faster west and southwesterly flow in association with the upper level trough should lead to quicker storm motions along with slightly better coverage. With the lower potential for storms to develop inland in the pre-dawn and morning hours, this should aid in the development of storms tomorrow. This is mostly due to the lower potential for cloud debris limiting instability from developing (like we saw today). We expect storms to follow a more normal summertime progression of developing along the coastal areas and transition into our Alabama and Georgia counties by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Thursday night Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Broad southwesterly upper level flow will continue into the weekend as the trough slowly lifts east into the latter part of the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend but as upper level riding gradually begins to build in by Sunday and Monday, expect warming temperatures and a lowering of rain chances. However, with plenty of deep-layer moisture still around, will keep at least chances of showers and storms in the forecast for the weekend. Some heat-related concerns could creep into the forecast as humid conditions stick around but the temperatures creep up. This could mean heat indicies climbing to around 105-110 late this weekend. By next week, the ridge begins to abate higher rain chances will again return to the forecast.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Through sunrise, showers and a few thunderstorms will line up along or immediately offshore the Panhandle coast, skirting at times near the southern end of the ECP terminal.

A rather robust round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop and likely affect all terminals today. Increased westerly steering flow will add to the gust factor of some storms, so have included some gust mentions in a few of the thunder- related TEMPO groups.

MARINE
Issued at 907 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

PM Observations: Panama City Tide Station (8729108) - sustained WSW winds 13 kts.

Panama City Beach Tide Station (8729210) - sustained WSW winds neat 10 kts.

West Tampa Buoy (42036) - sustained WSW winds near 5 kts with 1-ft seas and a dominant period of 4 seconds.

CWF Synopsis: A typical summertime pattern will result in generally light west to southwest flow which will be enhanced to 10 to 15 knots near the coast by the afternoon sea breeze.
Convection will be concentrated in the morning hours, with waterspouts possible.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Winds will be southwesterly through the end of the work week and will then clock around to being west to northwesterly this weekend. MinRH values look to remain well above critical thresholds over the next several days. As high pressure begins building over the region this weekend, we'll start to see MinRH values come down as drier air aloft mixes down to the surface this weekend but no increase in fire concerns is expected give the moist conditions we've seen so far this summer. Dispersions across SE Alabama and SW Georgia look to be elevated Thursday and Friday with elevated transport winds. Highs in the 90s each day with heat indices pushing the low to mid 100s in spots. Daily chances for late morning through mid evening thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Winds will be southwesterly through the end of the work week and will then clock around to being west to northwesterly this weekend. MinRH values look to remain well above critical thresholds over the next several days. As high pressure begins building over the region this weekend, we'll start to see MinRH values come down as drier air aloft mixes down to the surface this weekend but no increase in fire concerns is expected give the moist conditions we've seen so far this summer. Dispersions across SE Alabama and SW Georgia look to be elevated Thursday and Friday with elevated transport winds. Highs in the 90s each day with heat indices pushing the low to mid 100s in spots. Daily chances for late morning through mid evening thunderstorms.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 338 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Over the next week, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening. These will be typical of the summer wet season, riverine flooding is not expected. Isolated downpours could lead to flash flooding concerns, especially in areas with poor drainage.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 94 75 94 74 / 60 20 70 10 Panama City 91 79 91 78 / 40 20 60 20 Dothan 94 73 93 72 / 50 40 80 10 Albany 93 73 94 73 / 60 30 70 20 Valdosta 95 75 96 74 / 50 30 60 10 Cross City 92 74 93 73 / 30 10 40 10 Apalachicola 89 78 89 78 / 40 10 50 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.