Thursday, April9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 8:02PM Thursday April 9, 2020 6:23 PM EDT (22:23 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 7:36AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:202004100730;;835234 Fzus52 Ktae 091857 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 257 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz750-752-755-770-772-775-100730- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 257 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020 /157 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 9 2020/
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 knots late in the night. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Sunday..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet building to 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming northeast 10 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers through the night.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 257 Pm Edt Thu Apr 9 2020
Synopsis.. Northwest winds will increase tonight into Friday morning to near small craft advisory levels, but overall falling just short. Winds and seas will increase again to at least advisory levels with the potential for gale force gusts Sunday into Monday, along with wave heights building to 10 feet offshore, as a frontal system crosses the waters. Tranquil boating conditions will follow by mid week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 091855 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 255 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

. SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY .

NEAR TERM [Tonight and Friday].

Short wave energy topping the shallow upper ridge over Texas today will move east across our region tonight and early Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late in the day today. Residual outflow boundaries and the sea breeze may allow for a narrow band of convergence and just enough forcing for ascent to allow some isolated showers and storms to develop in the late afternoon along I- 10. Most areas will remain dry today. The front will sweep across the region tonight ushering much cooler air. Lows tonight will range from 55 to 60 degrees in most areas. That's still above normal, but high highs Friday will only be in the upper 60s north to lower 70s south, some 20 degrees cooler than today. Some forcing from the approach short wave and weak isentropic ascent will bring mid-level clouds to the region overnight and into Friday with slight to low chances for rain (20-30%) after midnight through midday.

SHORT TERM [Friday Night and Saturday].

No weather concerns with a ridge of high pressure in control. Dry weather through the period. Saturday morning low temperatures will be below normal, ranging from the low to mid-40s across the area given ideal longwave cooling. It's possible some spots dip into the middle and upper 30s! Temperatures will rebound nicely to a couple degrees above normal Saturday.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday].

Severe weather potential ramps up Sunday and lingers into Monday, with the main event possibly centered Sun Night into Mon Morning. There is the potential for a severe weather outbreak, including widespread damaging winds and tornadoes. SPC has placed the area northwest of the FL Big Bend under a 30 percent probability, and this is significant at this time range.

A mid-level shortwave becomes negatively tilted as it progresses thru the Tennessee Valley late this weekend into early next week, leading to surface cyclogenesis. There are differences in model timing, with the GEFS more progressive by roughly 6-12 hours in comparison to the EPS. This translates into timing uncertainties, and thus the broad timing window for severe weather potential.

Other concerns include gusty winds out ahead of any thunderstorms, possibly reaching 40 mph at times, rip currents/high surf along the coast, and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding along Apalachee Bay for the Sunday afternoon/evening high tide.

Looking ahead, a frontal boundary stalls south of the area into the middle of next week, with cloudiness and renewed chances of showers.

Overall, temperatures will not stray too far from seasonal levels.

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Friday]

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon in the vicinity of TLH. Isolated to scattered showers and storm will redevelop tomorrow at the end of the TAF period south of a DHN to VLD line.

MARINE.

Northwest winds will increase tonight into Friday morning to near Small Craft Advisory levels, but overall falling just short. Winds and seas will increase again to at least advisory levels with the potential for gale force gusts Sunday into Monday, along with wave heights building to 10 feet offshore, as a frontal system crosses the waters. Tranquil boating conditions will follow by mid week.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

HYDROLOGY.

The main window of concern is Sunday and Monday with a strong frontal system. Rainfall amounts have trended down slightly, with widespread 1-2 and isolated 3 inch amounts, heaviest northwest of the Big Bend. This translates into a low potential for river flooding.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 57 72 44 81 60 / 20 30 0 0 30 Panama City 58 72 49 77 64 / 30 30 0 0 40 Dothan 55 68 42 76 57 / 30 20 0 0 60 Albany 56 68 41 77 56 / 20 20 0 0 50 Valdosta 56 69 43 80 59 / 20 30 0 0 30 Cross City 61 73 45 82 61 / 10 30 0 0 20 Apalachicola 60 71 51 75 65 / 20 30 0 0 30

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Wool SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . LF AVIATION . Wool MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 12 mi99 min W 9.9 1009 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi54 min WSW 11 G 17 80°F 75°F1008.5 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi90 min SW 14 G 18 80°F 1006.5 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi84 min W 16 G 18 74°F 1009.1 hPa (-2.1)73°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KAAF

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
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Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:57 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:52 PM EDT     2.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:01 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.71.11.51.71.81.61.310.80.70.81.11.51.92.22.32.21.81.30.70.2-0.2-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.