Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:38PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:03 AM EST (05:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:29PMMoonset 6:41AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:201912111615;;169737 Fzus52 Ktae 110309 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1009 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-755-765-775-111615- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1009 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est Wednesday through late Thursday night...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight, then becoming north 20 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Areas of fog through the night. Chance of rain.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Rain showers in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1009 Pm Est Tue Dec 10 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front currently moving through the region will have areas of fog out ahead of it through tonight. Behind the cold front, winds are shifting to northerly/northwesterly, and increasing to small craft advisory levels. These levels are expected to be maintained through the early morning hours on Friday. Isolated gale force gusts are possible across the waters west of mexico beach and beyond 20 nautical miles Wednesday evening. Seas will generally increase to 5-8 feet as the stronger 20-25 knot winds pick up across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 102327 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 627 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2019

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Thursday]

MVFR CIGs are likely tonight with patchy IFR possible as rain showers continue to move through the region tonight. A cold front will move through overnight. CIGs will improve before sunrise or shortly after at most locations as drier air moves in behind the front. Winds will become northerly and may gust up to 15 or 20 knots tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION [148 PM EST].

NEAR TERM [Through Today].

A cold front will arrive at our western CWA this evening, bringing a SW-NE-oriented line of showers and isolated thunderstorms with it. The Day 1 Convective Outlook from SPC does not show severe wx at this time (just general thunder). Winds should increase some and abruptly shift from southwesterly to northwesterly behind this system. The frontal boundary will make its complete passage in the early-morning hours. As a result, temperatures should be cooler tonight, with lows in the mid-to-upper 40s west of Apalachicola River and low 50s east of it (overcast skies are also expected throughout the near term).

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday].

The cold front will likely have exited much of the region tonight leading to strong cold air advection behind it across the entire area. This will cool low temperatures into the mid 40s across our northern areas, and low to mid 50s across our southern areas. Although the surface winds are expected to remain northerly to northwesterly behind the cold front, a southerly component is expected to remain above the surface flow at the 850hPa layer, which will enhance isentropic lift over the cooler air. This will lead to cloudy skies and a small chance of light rain and showers for much of this period.

LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday].

A shortwave trough currently approaching the California coastline is expected to quickly propagate through the southern tier of the United States. This shortwave trough is expected to interact with the stalled cold front in the northern Gulf of Mexico that is currently progressing through our area. Enhanced divergence aloft coupled with strong baroclinic forcing from the large contrast of 80 degree water temperatures across parts of the northern central Gulf of Mexico and the 50-60 degree land temperatures are expected to aid in the development of a Gulf Low during the day Friday. SPC currently has a general thunder outlook for Friday; however it is possible that this threat/outlook may increase to a marginal or even a slight risk if model guidance trends towards a more unstable environment with higher CAPE values. Some limiting factors currently is that there is a lack of instability, and some model guidance is hinting at a shallow low level inversion, which would prevent storms from becoming surface based. If this is the case, most severe storm activity/threat would be limited to immediate coastal regions. Given that shear profiles are expected to be veering and provide 30+ knots of sfc-1km shear, it is certainly possible that an isolated storm or two will be severe.

In terms of rainfall with the aforementioned system, model guidance seems to go back and forth between a wet system for the area, to a drier more moderate rain event for the area. This uncertainty is likely linked to the models struggling to determine the overall intensity of the shortwave/surface low pressure system and its associated pressure falls expected with the system in the northern Gulf before it re- develops along the eastern Georgia and South Carolina coastline. Given this uncertainty, a widespread 1-3 inches is expected with higher or lower amounts locally possible with isolated heavy showers or storms associated with the low pressure system.

Beyond this Friday and Saturday's system, a brief dry period through the later half of the weekend and early next week is expected ahead of the next system that will impact the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Currently, confidence is low on the impacts and rain totals expected with this system.

MARINE.

A cold front currently moving through the region is expected to produce a line of showers and isolated storms with it throughout the day today and tonight. Behind the cold front, winds are expected to shift to the northerly/northwesterly, and increase to Small Craft Advisory levels on Wednesday. These levels are expected to be maintained through the early morning hours on Friday. A small craft advisory has been issued for our western waters starting Wednesday morning at 7am EST/6am CDT. Our eastern waters small craft advisory will begin at 1pm EST/12pm CDT. Seas will generally increase to 8-9 feet as the stronger 20-25 knot winds pick up across the waters.

FIRE WEATHER.

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few days. Fog is likely.

HYDROLOGY.

Even though rainfall chances will be possible from today through Saturday, no flooding is expected. Generally rainfall amounts will be in the 1-3 inch rain threshold, which is not enough to cause flooding concerns given that much of the area is in a dry conditions to moderate drought.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 50 63 46 65 52 / 40 30 30 30 70 Panama City 50 60 48 63 54 / 60 40 30 40 70 Dothan 45 58 43 56 47 / 50 40 20 40 80 Albany 49 60 44 57 47 / 60 30 20 40 80 Valdosta 52 64 46 64 52 / 40 20 20 30 60 Cross City 56 71 51 71 57 / 30 20 20 20 40 Apalachicola 52 63 50 65 56 / 40 40 30 30 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Wednesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Thursday night for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . IG SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . McD MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . McD HYDROLOGY . Bunker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 12 mi78 min S 4.1 1020 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi51 min NNW 8 G 12 68°F 65°F1019.5 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi69 min NE 1 G 1.9 67°F 1018.3 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi63 min W 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1018.9 hPa (+0.7)65°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi70 minNW 1210.00 miOvercast70°F66°F90%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAAF

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE5S5S7S5S8SE9S7S8S9S9S8SE7E6CalmSE4S4SW6NW12N11
1 day agoE9E9E7E8SE9SE6S11S10S9W8--W7SW6W7SW7SW4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3
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Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EST     2.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:23 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:17 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:33 PM EST     1.44 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:28 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:39 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:58 PM EST     1.24 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.32.11.71.20.70.1-0.3-0.5-0.4-0.20.20.711.31.41.41.41.31.21.31.51.82.1

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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