Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

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Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 8:41PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:49 PM EDT (17:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 7:15AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:201907190315;;253959 Fzus52 Ktae 181418 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1018 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-190315- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1018 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 /918 Am Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019/
Rest of today..Northwest winds around 5 knots becoming southwest 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight through Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night through Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1018 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Synopsis..Winds will generally be less than 10 knots through Monday and will be out of the northwest today before shifting to the west and then southwest by the weekend. Seas will be less than 2 foot through the period. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms are possible each day.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 181723
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
123 pm edt Thu jul 18 2019

Aviation
[through 18z Friday]
vfr conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms through the
taf period. The thunderstorm probability will be greatest at tlh
and vld, but still possible at aby and dhn.

Prev discussion [1014 am edt]
Near term [through today]
A combination of mid-level shortwave energy and lee effects will
result in a surface trough down the eastern seaboard through the
tri-state region today. This trough and the big bend atlantic
seabreezes will force widespread convection across the eastern
2 3 of the region, and scattered elsewhere. While there are likely
to be strong storms with gusty sub-severe level winds, the severe
threat will remain isolated. High temperatures will climb to the
low to mid 90s, though heat indices will be AOB 105 degrees for
most of the region today.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
The storms that form during the day may take a few hours to fully
subside after sunset but should be done by 10-11pm et. A
lingering weak area of surface low pressure will initiate storms
over the big bend coastal waters early Friday morning which will
spread west through the morning. It's a really messy set up for
Friday with a weak trough at the surface and a high pressure ridge
trying to build in from the east. Moisture however will increase
as an upper shortwave moves to the south with higher moisture
advecting into the region. This puts pw values above 2 inches.

There is still some dry air in the sounding with dcape around
900-1000 j kg but with little to no shear or wind, thinking these
will be strong stationary storms, capable of producing very heavy
rainfall more than anything else.

The upper wave weak low will sink south near mobile by Saturday
morning, initiating showers and storms over the waters once again.

With easterly flow aloft, guidance is showing drier air being
advected in. This along with the wave moving quickly westward leaves
lower pops in the east and only scattered pops in the west. A few
storms may linger overnight if any outflow boundaries make it into
regions that were untouched from the days convection. Would think
the chance of severe is lower on Sat than on Friday.

Highs will generally be in the lower 90s with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
The ridge from the east builds in a little bit more on Sunday
evidenced by the drier air in the soundings and the hint at a
subsidence inversion. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms can't be
ruled out but seems Sunday will be one of the lower coverage days of
the week.

A broad upper trough approaches on Monday with a cold front back in
se mo and along the tn ky border. Southerly flow through the
column increases moisture ahead of it. There will be enough dry
air lingering on Monday to keep only scattered pops in the
forecast. But as the front and trough move east, numerous showers
and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon tue-thu with
scattered storms lingering overnight. The front will make it over
the area by Wednesday but will stall. This could develop waves of
low pressure along it and present a flooding problem as well as
strong to severe storms with no relief from the heat or dew
points. Pw values will be above 2 inches again with little to no
dry air in the column. But sufficient instability and lift as well
as some shear will lead to the possibility of the strong storms.

Highs will be in the lower 90s all week and lows in the lower 70s.

Marine
Winds will generally be less than 10 knots through Monday and will
be out of the northwest today before shifting to the west and then
southwest by the weekend. Seas will be less than 2 foot through
the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
each day.

Fire weather
There are no fire weather concerns at least for the next several
days.

Hydrology
Generally scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day
through the weekend. A few may be slow moving, heavy rain
producers, with the typical flooding of low lying or flood prone
areas possible. Towards the middle of next week, a front will
stall over the region and possibly provide for continued heavy
rainfall. This will need to be monitored for the possibility of
isolated flash flooding. The rivers are low enough right now that
the heavy rain will likely not result in any river flooding.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 76 92 74 91 74 10 50 10 50 20
panama city 80 89 77 87 77 10 40 30 50 20
dothan 75 92 73 91 73 10 70 20 50 30
albany 76 93 74 92 74 10 80 30 50 30
valdosta 75 93 73 92 73 10 50 20 30 20
cross city 76 90 75 91 74 40 40 10 40 20
apalachicola 79 89 77 88 77 20 40 30 50 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Harrigan
short term... Ln
long term... Ln
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Ln
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Ln


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi50 min SW 6 G 9.9 88°F 87°F1019.6 hPa (+0.0)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi116 min S 4.1 G 5.1 88°F 81°F1018.1 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi50 min S 7 G 7 83°F 1019.8 hPa (+0.0)71°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi57 minS 1010.00 miFair89°F73°F61%1019 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8W9W9W7W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmSW36S10
1 day ago5SE9S8S7S6S6S5CalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3NE3CalmCalmCalmN3NE3NE3CalmS3S7S8
2 days agoSE9S9SE7S7S6S4S3SE3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmSE6SE8SE7

Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
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Thu -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     1.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:26 PM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:09 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:19 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.30.711.31.51.51.51.41.41.41.61.92.22.52.72.72.52.11.61.10.60.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.