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GMZ432 Calcasieu Lake- 234 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
.dense fog advisory in effect until 9 am cst Saturday...
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Patchy dense fog early.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Lake waters light chop. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Patchy dense fog in the evening. Widespread dense fog after midnight.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Areas of dense fog in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the morning.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Patchy fog after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots, becoming west in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth.
Tuesday night..West winds around 5 knots, becoming north after midnight. Lake waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 234 Pm Cst Fri Dec 1 2023
Synopsis..
areas of dense fog will continue through Saturday morning as the warm moist air resides over the cooler sea surface. Another round of showers and Thunderstorms is expected to develop tonight into Saturday as another upper level disturbance crosses the region. By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

FXUS64 KLCH 012351 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 551 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A long wave trough remains over the eastern CONUS this morning with Pacific moisture streaming northeast ahead of the trough.
This moisture is moving across coastal Texas and LA with the next embedded short wave spawning new convection between Corpus Christi and Galveston. A weak and slowly sinking south cold front stretches northward along the Texas coast across the Sabine and into Northeast LA.

Through tonight, the convection along the Texas coast will lift northeast into deep SE TX and South LA, into the same areas that received hefty rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours. Hi-res guidance has the highest amounts this evening/tonight southeast of a Sabine Pass to Opelousas line. Isolated locations may receive an additional 4-6", especially near Lafayette and south, but most locations in that area are expected receive 1-4". Opted to leave out the immediate coast from the Flash Flood watch being that the heaviest rain last night largely missed to the north and storage is generally empty.

In addition to the flood risk, there is a marginal risk of severe weather with weak tornadoes or high wind gusts possible. The boundary that pushed offshore last night is lifting north with +70F dewpts advecting into the coast. A modest amount of cape and shear may allow for a few brief organized storms ahead of the incoming shortwave tonight.

The warm and moist air mass advecting in from the gulf may also produce areas of dense fog, especially near the coast and into the HWY 190 corridor. Opted to not issue and adv for now due to uncertainty due to mixing from the incoming convection. The marine dense fog adv is nearly a slam dunk with nearshore water temps around 60F being overridden with 70F dewpts and light winds.

The weak front will ooze through Saturday morning with convection departing the region during the morning. Cooler and more settled weather will last into the long term.

05

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

A rather quiet and seasonal period is on tap through the long term, with out next real weather maker likely not arriving until next weekend. On Monday, a mid level shortwave trough will be be diving across the Midwest/TN Valley, with a W/NW flow overhead aloft. At the surface, weak high pressure will be meandering around the SErn US, providing a light offshore flow, partly cloudy skies, and highs in the mid 60s for the start of the work week.

Tuesday, a second shortwave will make it way out of Canada, plunging south through the Midwest and carving out a deeper trough over the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. This trough will drag a cold front across the Plains on Tuesday, with the boundary expected to make its way to the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Unfortunately if you're looking for a taste of colder weather this front doesn't look like it'll bring it, with only a slight northerly wind shift expected with frontal passage on Wednesday. Temperature wise, highs will top out in the mid 60s to near 70 degrees both Tues and Wed, with overnight lows in the 40s expected.

Just as quickly as winds shifted north on Wednesday they will return to an onshore flow on Thursday, as post-frontal high pressure quickly slides off to our east. At the same time, weak mid level ridging looks to build over the Plains. This set up will bring about slightly warmer temps along with slowly increasing dewpoints through the end of the long term period. Rain chances remain near zero through Friday however, our next chance of rain looks like it may arrive as we start the weekend.

17

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Another active TAF period is in store tonight and tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected again overnight as a disturbance works over the region. LCH and BPT are already experiencing SHRA and TSRA which will last for the next several hours.

Low pressure will slowly work from west to east and convection should be finished at western terminals by midnight. Acadiana terminals will see periods of on and off showers/thunderstorms overnight and tomorrow where a boundary hangs up.

Areas of patchy to dense fog are also expected with the low ceilings and VIS 1/4 to 2SM will be possible at all terminals through about 16Z. Ceilings and VIS will marginally improve thereafter, however a cloud deck 1 to 2 kft and lingering VIS 4 to 6SM will be possible.

Variable winds 5 to 10 knots are possible overnight, particularly around thunderstorms, but strong gusts are not expected. Winds will start to turn to the north tomorrow afternoon behind the passing low pressure center.

11/Calhoun

MARINE
Issued at 219 PM CST Fri Dec 1 2023

Marine fog will remain in place across the coastal waters through tonight and into Saturday. An adv remains in effect until 9AM Sat.

By Saturday afternoon, a weak cold front will slide very slowly across the coastal waters, with a light offshore flow expected in its wake. Winds will eventually become light and variable by Sunday as the weak surface high pressure moves over the area.

08/05

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 58 71 49 70 / 90 40 10 0 LCH 63 72 53 71 / 100 30 10 0 LFT 67 76 56 71 / 100 60 30 0 BPT 62 73 51 70 / 80 20 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ044-045-055-142-143- 152>154-242-243.

TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ430-432-435- 436-450-452-455.

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Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:48 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:12 AM CST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:07 PM CST     2.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana (2), Tide feet

Calcasieu Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:48 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 10:53 AM CST     -0.29 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:33 PM CST     2.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:10 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Calcasieu Pass, Lighthouse wharf, Louisiana, Tide feet

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