Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Canyon Lake, TX
April 30, 2025 12:26 PM CDT (17:26 UTC)
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 | Sunrise 6:49 AM Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 7:59 AM Moonset 11:01 PM |
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Canyon Lake, TX
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Area Discussion for Austin/San Antonio, TX
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FXUS64 KEWX 301141 AAA AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Key Messages:
- Level 1 of 5 risk for an isolated severe storm today across the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains
- Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for isolated severe storms Thursday over most of South Central Texas
The upper level low pressure system currently over western Arizona per water vapor imagery is expected to push to the east and northeast within the next 24 to 30 hours. The upper level low opens into an upper level short wave as it moves across the Texas panhandle and the Southern Plains. At the surface, the west Texas dryline pushes to the east and gets into the western Hill Country by this afternoon. A (20 to 30 knots) low level jet ahead of the dryline brings enough moisture and instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop especially across the Hill Country, along the I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains mid to late morning into the afternoon period. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with the main severe weather hazards being large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out. We could have a break from the isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this evening before an MCS from north Texas comes down and affect parts of the Hill Country and areas east of Highway 77.
Late Thursday, a complex of thunderstorms is projected to develop over the high terrain and move east into the local area by early evening. As the air should be capped most of the day, more information on this scenario is covered in the Long Term section.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Key Messages:
- Severe and locally heavy rainfall threat continues through Friday night
- Cooler weekend behind a front, but warm, humid and stormy pattern continues next week.
GFS and ECM models have been somewhat consistent in a an MCV driven storm complex moving out of Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains Thursday evening. However, The NAM and to some extent the CMC have not held to this scenario, with the 00Z NAM showing the cap holding over all of South-central TX through Thursday night. This has us favoring a typical April 40 percent chance type day for a good portion of the western counties, but with a high potential to see pockets of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts. Location of the initial convection would favor the heaviest rains to fall south of Hwy 90, but confidence is low on where and when the topography driven convection will first fire off. A low end severe threat also exists, but with the strongest storms expected to be near or west of the Rio Grande/Pecos. Farther east there's an isolated chance of a Central Texas cluster of storms, but most solutions have it breaking closer to the Brazos Valley. Thus our Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night may be overstated, but with typical CAPES in the month of April, just about any deep convective cell has a chance to go severe.
A minima of convective activity is depicted for Friday, but like Thursday, temperatures will be plenty warm and humidities high. So when a moderate cold front arrives into Central TX by around 00Z Saturday, the fireworks should be on full display. There should be enough moisture pooled up against the front for a near widespread rainfall event Friday night into early Saturday, but this doesn't always happen, especially as we remain more on the La Nina side of neutral. A broad but fairly weak upper trough to the west opening up over TX provides a bit of a negative tilt effect even though it's weakening. Thus we should see ripples of PVA moving over the frontal zone and possible a multiple round rain event running well into Saturday, with some severe and heavy rain potential Friday night.
The rain chances could last through the weekend, but should de- escalate by Sunday morning.
A relatively cool weekend will be welcome, but the warming trend kicks back into gear by Monday. Also on Monday, another upper trough gets settled in over the southwest CONUS, allowing for more low chance storm days to concentrate on the dry-line for the first half of next week. Another promising rain chance could arrive when the next upper trough ejects NE next Wednesday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
MVFR cigs are expected to stay around area terminals through 16z for the I-35 sites and 14z for KDRT. VFR conditions return for all sites this afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs redevelop late this evening into the overnight period. Continued to carry the PROB30 group for KAUS and KSAT for the potential of isolated thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 87 70 92 69 / 60 30 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 69 92 67 / 60 20 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 70 92 69 / 60 20 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 87 67 91 66 / 70 30 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 66 98 70 / 0 0 30 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 67 92 66 / 70 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 93 67 94 66 / 20 10 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 69 91 68 / 60 20 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 71 89 69 / 50 30 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 70 92 70 / 40 20 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 91 71 92 70 / 30 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 641 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
New AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Key Messages:
- Level 1 of 5 risk for an isolated severe storm today across the southern Edwards Plateau, western Hill Country, I-35 corridor and Coastal Plains
- Level 1 to 2 of 5 risk for isolated severe storms Thursday over most of South Central Texas
The upper level low pressure system currently over western Arizona per water vapor imagery is expected to push to the east and northeast within the next 24 to 30 hours. The upper level low opens into an upper level short wave as it moves across the Texas panhandle and the Southern Plains. At the surface, the west Texas dryline pushes to the east and gets into the western Hill Country by this afternoon. A (20 to 30 knots) low level jet ahead of the dryline brings enough moisture and instability for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to develop especially across the Hill Country, along the I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains mid to late morning into the afternoon period. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with the main severe weather hazards being large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado can't be ruled out. We could have a break from the isolated shower and thunderstorm activity this evening before an MCS from north Texas comes down and affect parts of the Hill Country and areas east of Highway 77.
Late Thursday, a complex of thunderstorms is projected to develop over the high terrain and move east into the local area by early evening. As the air should be capped most of the day, more information on this scenario is covered in the Long Term section.
LONG TERM
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
Key Messages:
- Severe and locally heavy rainfall threat continues through Friday night
- Cooler weekend behind a front, but warm, humid and stormy pattern continues next week.
GFS and ECM models have been somewhat consistent in a an MCV driven storm complex moving out of Mexico into the Rio Grande Plains Thursday evening. However, The NAM and to some extent the CMC have not held to this scenario, with the 00Z NAM showing the cap holding over all of South-central TX through Thursday night. This has us favoring a typical April 40 percent chance type day for a good portion of the western counties, but with a high potential to see pockets of 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts. Location of the initial convection would favor the heaviest rains to fall south of Hwy 90, but confidence is low on where and when the topography driven convection will first fire off. A low end severe threat also exists, but with the strongest storms expected to be near or west of the Rio Grande/Pecos. Farther east there's an isolated chance of a Central Texas cluster of storms, but most solutions have it breaking closer to the Brazos Valley. Thus our Slight risk for severe storms Thursday night may be overstated, but with typical CAPES in the month of April, just about any deep convective cell has a chance to go severe.
A minima of convective activity is depicted for Friday, but like Thursday, temperatures will be plenty warm and humidities high. So when a moderate cold front arrives into Central TX by around 00Z Saturday, the fireworks should be on full display. There should be enough moisture pooled up against the front for a near widespread rainfall event Friday night into early Saturday, but this doesn't always happen, especially as we remain more on the La Nina side of neutral. A broad but fairly weak upper trough to the west opening up over TX provides a bit of a negative tilt effect even though it's weakening. Thus we should see ripples of PVA moving over the frontal zone and possible a multiple round rain event running well into Saturday, with some severe and heavy rain potential Friday night.
The rain chances could last through the weekend, but should de- escalate by Sunday morning.
A relatively cool weekend will be welcome, but the warming trend kicks back into gear by Monday. Also on Monday, another upper trough gets settled in over the southwest CONUS, allowing for more low chance storm days to concentrate on the dry-line for the first half of next week. Another promising rain chance could arrive when the next upper trough ejects NE next Wednesday.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025
MVFR cigs are expected to stay around area terminals through 16z for the I-35 sites and 14z for KDRT. VFR conditions return for all sites this afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs redevelop late this evening into the overnight period. Continued to carry the PROB30 group for KAUS and KSAT for the potential of isolated thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Austin Camp Mabry 87 70 92 69 / 60 30 20 20 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 88 69 92 67 / 60 20 20 20 New Braunfels Muni Airport 89 70 92 69 / 60 20 20 20 Burnet Muni Airport 87 67 91 66 / 70 30 10 30 Del Rio Intl Airport 99 66 98 70 / 0 0 30 40 Georgetown Muni Airport 87 67 92 66 / 70 30 10 20 Hondo Muni Airport 93 67 94 66 / 20 10 20 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 88 69 91 68 / 60 20 20 20 La Grange - Fayette Regional 87 71 89 69 / 50 30 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 89 70 92 70 / 40 20 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 91 71 92 70 / 30 20 20 30
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBAZ
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBAZ
Wind History Graph: BAZ
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas
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Austin/San Antonio, TX,
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