Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Augustine South, FL

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1028 millibars) centered just east of North Carolina's Outer Banks.
Meanwhile, a cold front extends southwestward from the Great Lakes through the Ozarks and the Southern Plains
Aloft
ridging continues to build northeastward from the Bay of Campeche (southwestern Gulf of Mexico) into the southeastern states.
Otherwise, a potent shortwave trough was accelerating east- northeastward across the Great Lakes region, with a cutoff trough left behind across the Desert Southwest. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that PWATs were in the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range across our area, with drier air mass advecting towards the northeast FL beaches, where values were closer to 1 inch. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes have developed this afternoon at coastal locations, with the Gulf coast sea breeze being pinned along the FL Big Bend and Nature coasts. A few sprinkles or light showers have developed beneath a healthy cumulus and stratocumulus field at inland locations, with this activity pushing quickly westward and remaining very brief in duration. Temperatures at 19Z were in the low to mid 80s across inland northeast and north central FL, with upper 70s to around 80 being reported elsewhere. Dewpoints were generally in the 60-65 range.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday and Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Temperatures will be at or above normal Wednesday and Thursday as dry conditions continue under high pressure ridging. Inland high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s, with an onshore breeze keeping coastal highs in the 70s to lower 80s both days.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Rain chances return late Friday through early next week as a front approaches from the northwest. Showers will start up Friday evening for far inland southeast Georgia, with rain chances of 30-40% covering all of northeast Florida and southeast Georgia by Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday. It will be hot on Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures approaching 90 degrees inland, and the lower to mid 80s along the coast. With the warm temperatures and action from the Atlantic sea breeze and the front, thunderstorms are possible Saturday and Sunday afternoons/evenings. As the front exits south of the forecast area on Sunday, isolated shower chances will continue Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds to the north. Temperatures will return to near normal in the 80s inland and onshore winds keeping the coast in the upper 70s.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

VFR expected to prevail for the majority of airfields during the forecast period. Some BR/FG is possible towards early Wednesday morning inland, especially at VQQ which continues to be included in the forecast. Otherwise, dry and mostly clear skies overnight with only a few low clouds streaming onshore at coastal sites at times. Similar regime expected Wednesday late morning and afternoon/evening with onshore winds around 10 knots and FEW or SCT fair weather diurnal clouds.

MARINE
Issued at 302 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

High pressure will remain positioned off the southeastern seaboard through Friday. Breezy easterly winds this evening will shift to southeasterly while gradually decreasing after midnight.
Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Friday. An evening wind surge is expected on Thursday well in advance of a cold front that will be entering the southeastern states on Friday afternoon and evening, with Caution conditions likely both near shore and offshore late this week. This cold front will cross our local waters on Saturday and Saturday evening, accompanied by showers and thunderstorms. A surge of northeasterly winds is forecast in the wake of this frontal passage on Sunday and Sunday night as high pressure building over the Ohio Valley wedges down the southeastern seaboard.

Rip Currents: Breakers of 3-5 feet at the northeast FL beaches will combine with an easterly ocean swell to create a high risk of rip currents today. Breaker heights of 2-4 feet at the southeast GA beaches should yield a higher end moderate risk today. Breaker heights will only slowly diminish through late this week as breezy onshore

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 1205 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Breezy easterly surface and transport winds will progress inland this afternoon, creating fair to good daytime dispersion values across our area. Surface and transport winds will gradually shift to east-southeasterly on Wednesday and then southeasterly by Thursday. Breezy onshore surface winds are expected at coastal locations each afternoon. Slightly lower transport speeds on Wednesday will mostly yield fair daytime dispersion values on Wednesday afternoon, while good values continue across north central FL. Elevated mixing heights on Thursday will result in a continuation of fair to good daytime dispersion values despite lighter transport speeds at inland locations.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 61 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 66 79 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 59 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 65 80 65 83 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 60 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 61 88 60 88 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.

GA...None.
AM...None.