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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1015 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft exercise caution...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1015 Am Est Tue Nov 28 2023
Synopsis..
borderline advisory level conditions persist until around noon cst across waters west of apalachicola while cautionary winds and seas continue over apalachee bay via brisk northerly winds. Surface high pressure moving in brings about lighter offshore breezes below headline criteria through mid-week before an approaching area of low pressure from the western gulf brings about hazardous boating conditions late Thursday and Friday. Chances for Thunderstorms also return to the forecast heading into the weekend with a rainy pattern likely until Monday afternoon.

FXUS62 KTAE 281739 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1239 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

1027mb surface high pressure is expected to quickly advance towards the southeast US underneath fairly zonal flow aloft. Clouds this morning will decrease from west to east as high level moisture pushes east and dry air and subsidence strengthens below 400mb. High pressure settles just north and west of the area by daybreak Wednesday which combined with light winds and clear skies, is a favorable position for good radiational cooling. Given dewpoints falling into the 20s tonight, low temperatures will reach or fall below freezing across most of the area. Freeze watch has been upgraded to a warning for all zones away from the coast excluding Gulf and Franklin. Highs today will top out in the mid to upper 50s.
Lows tonight are expected to plummet into the mid to upper 20s in outlying areas of the wiregrass in southwest Georgia and adjacent southeast Alabama. Upper 20s to low 30s are expected through much of the Florida counties away from the coast and mid 30s around the coast. Widespread frost can be expected as well so allow a little extra time to warm up the vehicle and scrape any ice from your windows.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Widespread frost and freezing to near-freezing temperatures early Wednesday morning give way to max afternoon readings in the mid/upper 50s despite plentiful sunshine. Strong surface high pressure maintains light northerly winds to reinforce the dry/chilly airmass before the boundary layer likely decouples once again late Wednesday/early Thursday. Another period of favorable radiational cooling conditions support a second round of frost/freeze conditions, albeit likely more isolated to scattered. Forecast low temperatures are in the low 30s away from the immediate coast with isolated upper 20s possible. The main wildcard will be cloud cover, which is probable via upper cirrus moving in from the west.
Depending on how blanketed the skies become, thermometers may read warmer than forecast. A warming trend then gets underway Thursday afternoon as the airmass begins moderating ahead of a developing area of low pressure off the TX coast. The short-term period closes out with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

A shortwave trough racing northeastward off the Desert SW into the OH Valley late this week brings a frontal system and returning rain chances (thunder possible) our way on Friday. The front then stagnates across the northern Gulf coast this weekend as a broader upper trough amplifies over the Central US with a sharpening southwesterly jet streak along the Appalachians. These features will make for wet/unsettled weather through Monday afternoon characterized by multiple waves of rainfall, the potential for thunderstorms, and widespread cloud cover.

Severe weather potential is uncertain at this time, but flooding from repeated rounds of rain appear to be the greater weather concern. A pair of WPC Marginal Risks (level 1 of 4) are in place for much of the service area in the Day 4 & 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks - valid 12Z Friday to 12Z Sunday. Read the Hydrology section below for more details. Dry conditions arrive from west to east behind the departing systems near the end of the long-term period with a cooler airmass filtering in.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Gusty winds are being reported at terminals across the region and that is expected to continue through sunset. After sunset we'll decouple with winds dropping down to calm or near calm at all terminals expect ECP, which may stay around 5 knots overnight. As a result, widespread frost is expected tomorrow morning. After sunrise tomorrow, a north wind around 5 knots will prevail with clear skies through the rest of the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Borderline advisory level conditions persist until around noon CST across waters west of Apalachicola while cautionary winds and seas continue over Apalachee Bay via brisk northerly winds. Surface high pressure moving in brings about lighter offshore breezes below headline criteria through mid-week before an approaching area of low pressure from the western Gulf brings about hazardous boating conditions late Thursday and Friday. Chances for thunderstorms also return to the forecast heading into the weekend with a rainy pattern likely until Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Surface high pressure will continue its trek into the southeast US through Thursday. The coldest air of the season thus far will arrive during the next several days. Widespread freezes are likely both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Afternoon humidity values will fall into the low 20 percent range in the wiregrass areas of southwest Georgia and along I75 Wednesday. Winds will be light given high pressure close by precluding any fire weather highlights at this time. Temperatures moderate into the weekend with wetting rains returning Friday into early next week.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 420 AM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Dry weather continues through Thursday, followed by a transition to a much wetter pattern heading into the weekend. Multiple rounds of rainfall (heavy at times) are expected between Friday and Monday.
The latest QPF amounts during that time frame are widespread 2-4 inches (isolated 5"+) - higher with northwestward extent. Values are subject to change in subsequent forecasts. Given the ongoing drought conditions, lack of rain since Sunday, and low river levels, there are no significant hydrological concerns. However, isolated flash or nuisance flooding is possible, especially in urban, low-lying, or poor-drainage areas.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 31 57 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 36 58 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 29 55 33 60 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 28 55 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 30 55 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 31 59 29 67 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 39 57 42 66 / 0 0 0 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ Wednesday for FLZ007>013-016>019-026>029-034.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for FLZ114.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155>161.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Wednesday for ALZ065>069.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ750-752-770-772.

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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:09 AM EST     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:52 AM EST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:10 PM EST     2.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:21 PM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Point, St. James Island, Florida, Tide feet

Panacea
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Tue -- 01:33 AM EST     3.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:35 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:01 AM EST     -0.70 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:34 PM EST     3.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:38 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:30 PM EST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Panacea, Dickerson Bay, Florida, Tide feet

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