Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 5:58 PM   Moonset 4:13 AM

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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 225 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024 /125 Am Cdt Tue May 21 2024/
Today - East winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots this afternoon. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 3 seconds and south 2 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: east 1 foot at 4 seconds and south 1 foot at 6 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wave detail: south 1 foot at 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wave detail: southeast 1 foot at 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Friday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet after midnight. Protected waters a light chop.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 225 Am Edt Tue May 21 2024
Synopsis - Light easterly flow regime expected through late Wednesday before winds become light and southerly by the end of the upcoming week. Winds will be 10 knots of less except for occasional nocturnal easterly surges in the wind tonight and again on Wednesday night. Seas will be around 2 feet through the week, possibly decreasing by the late week period as light winds move in. No rain or Thunderstorms expected through at least the weekend.

FXUS62 KTAE 210522 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 122 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

No major changes to tonight's forecast were required. Hourly cloud cover was adjusted to accounted for evening trends of a diminishing cumulus field via the latest NBM/HRRR blends. Mostly clear skies and light/calm winds pave the way for relatively decent radiational cooling. As such minT's are on the cool side of the model guidance envelope and in line with MOS readings.

NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Clouds have hung in longer than expected with plentiful moisture moving on northeast low level flow underneath the subsidence inversion. Adjusted hourly and max highs today to lower just a skoosh in a few places. If we can get a few more breaks, highs today should reach the mid/upper 80s. A few showers may occur along the seabreeze which should be short lived. Clouds should erode later today into this evening.

High pressure will be anchored from the northern Gulf to offshore the eastern seaboard. Other than perhaps a shower or two in the southeast Big Bend Tuesday afternoon, the region will remain dry with upper ridging building overhead. Northeast winds will continue overnight into tomorrow with lows falling into the 60s and highs Tuesday reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level riding continues to build over the area with northerly flow prevailing before sliding southeast resulting in easterly flow overhead late Wednesday evening. Drier air coupled with large scale subsidence should result in clear skies and will kick off a warming trend lasting through the long term. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s with daytime highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with some mid 90s across our FL counties possible.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging continues with easterly flow aloft. A series of weak disturbances will ride east along the ridge axis over our area beginning Friday which will serve to bring us back to some low end rain and thunderstorm chances amidst the dry pattern. Chances have also increased due to southerly flow transporting more abundant low-level moisture across the forecast area.

With predominately sunny conditions continuing through the long term, the warming trend will also continue. Daytime highs will remain in the low to mid 90s areawide with little relief overnight as overnight lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s. With increasing temperatures and dewpoints, heat indices are expected to see an increase as well. Later in the period, apparent temperatures will reach the upper 90s across our FL counties, perhaps reaching the low 100s Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail with easterly winds generally remaining less than 10 knots. Winds at ECP may briefing switch to southwest later this afternoon with the sea breeze.

MARINE
Issued at 910 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a NNE wind at 6 kts with 2-ft seas and dominant period of 6 to 7 seconds this evening.

From CWF Synopsis...Winds are expected to clock to easterly this evening, gradually clocking to south-southeasterly throughout the week around 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will remain around 1 to 2 feet through Wednesday before becoming 1 foot across the board.
Each day, slight wind surges over our nearshore waters may occur as the afternoon seabreeze kicks in. Rain and thunderstorms are not expected throughout the workweek.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Generally northeasterly transport winds around 10-15 mph with high mixing heights are expected tomorrow with good to excellent dispersions area wide. The highest dispersions will be over the Suwannee Valley Tuesday afternoon. The afternoon sea breeze may cause winds to become more southerly near the coast during the afternoon and evening hours. Transport winds become more southeasterly to southerly Wednesday and Thursday with good dispersions each day.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 157 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Heavy rainfall from Friday and the weekend will lead to ongoing or developing minor flooding at several rivers over the next few days as rainfall works its way into the system. Withlacoochee River in Georgia and northern Florida is currently climbing and will likely crest sometime this week. Rises in the lower Withlacoochee will likely rise through much of the upcoming week.
Rises into solid action stage in the middle and lower Suwanee Rivers are likely later this week and next weekend.

Further west across the Ochlockonee basin, the river will generally hold steady or rise slowly through the week. The Apalachicola at Blountstown will approach minor flood stage today.
Across the Panhandle in the Choctawhatchee Basin, rivers rises to near flood are likely through the week.

Aside from increasing rivers from recent heavy rainfall, no new hydrological concerns are anticipated to develop with the area likely moving into a drier pattern for the next 5 to 7 days.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 88 67 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 69 87 70 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 85 65 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 85 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 88 65 91 67 / 10 10 0 0 Apalachicola 82 71 83 72 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:16 AM EDT     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:59 AM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:50 PM EDT     2.58 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Alligator Point, St. James Island, Florida, Tide feet

Turkey Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:38 AM EDT     2.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:56 AM EDT     1.67 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:36 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:42 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Turkey Point, FSU Lab, Florida, Tide feet

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