Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Perry, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:37PM Monday March 1, 2021 6:20 PM EST (23:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:20PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 305 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021 /205 Pm Cst Mon Mar 1 2021/
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 20 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 305 Pm Est Mon Mar 1 2021
Synopsis.. Advisory conditions mainly over the waters off the panhandle with cautionary conditions elsewhere tonight into Tuesday behind a cold front. Brief sca conditions are possible as well late Tuesday into Wednesday morning as low pressure tracks through the waters. Thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible late Tuesday as well. High pressure will then build in with lighter winds and seas for the remainder of the forecast period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perry, FL
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location: 29.97, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 012047 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion . Updated Hydrology section. National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 345 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NEAR TERM [Through Tuesday].

The approaching cold front has almost cleared SE Alabama and Georgia this afternoon, and is expected to continue to push into the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. Ahead of the front across the Florida Panhandle, heavy showers and thunderstorms have moved in, and are spreading eastward. These storms are expected to take advantage of the slightly enhanced instability across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, and become more widespread through the evening. With 60+ knots of effective bulk shear, there is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon and evening; however, a rather strong mid-layer cap was observed on the 12 UTC TLH sounding this morning, which will act to inhibit any updrafts from growing upscale in nature. This seems to be the predominant limiting factor for these storms this evening. Through tomorrow, temperatures will continue to fall across the region as the cold front pushes south; however, the developing gulf low will start to develop towards the end of the near term period. This will keep the cold front stationary across the region before the surface low pressure system pushes across the region late Tuesday. High temperatures tomorrow will be much cooler with mid 50s expected across SE Alabama and Georgia, and low 60s to mid 60s across the Florida Panhandle and coastal regions.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Through Wednesday Night].

Showers with some embedded thunder will be ongoing at the beginning of the period. There is a chance for a severe storm or two over the waters and near the coast in the Panhandle and western Big Bend tmrw evening. This will occur as a surface low tracks across the area allowing a narrow ribbon of surface based instability to push inland into a highly sheared environment. Not looking like too big a deal right now but something to keep an eye on. Locally heavy rain will also be possible - check the hydrology section for more detail. Rain will move out by late morning Wednesday with dry and cooler air for the rest of the period.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday].

High pressure will dominate Thursday and much of Friday with a drier and cooler weather on tap. Weak area of low pressure will then clip southeast from TX through the northern Gulf Friday Night into Saturday as upper low opens up and shears across the region. This will bring a renewed chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms to the area with better chances over the FL Big Bend and across the Gulf waters. High pressure will then build back in with dry weather returning.

AVIATION. [Through 18Z Tuesday]

With ongoing shower and thunderstorm activity across the region today, DHN, ECP, ABY, and TLH will intermittently experience MVFR CIGs through the afternoon and early evening hours. Throughout the early evening hours, these showers and lower CIGs will spread south and eastward, and eventually impact VLD during this time frame. Overnight MVFR CIGs are expected to overtake the region as the next system to the west develops and starts to approach our area. These CIGs are expected to linger for the remainder of the TAF period.

MARINE.

SCA conditions mainly over the waters off the Panhandle tonight into Tuesday behind a cold front. Brief SCA conditions are possible late Tuesday into Wednesday Morning as low pressure tracks through the waters. Thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible late Tuesday as well. High pressure will then build in with lighter winds and seas for the remainder of the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER.

Wet conditions over the next two days will lead to no fire weather concerns at this time.

Hydrology. Focus over the next 48-72 hours will be the approaching storm system Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning and the rainfall potential associated with it. Most of the model guidance suggests the heaviest rain would be across our Georgia counties, particularly within the Flint, Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins. These areas have had a great deal of rainfall over the last month and are particularly vulnerable to river flooding following heavy rains. Based on MMEFS guidance, 2-3 inches of rain would be sufficient to produce minor flooding in the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins, but it would take a little more (up to 4 inches) to produce minor flooding within the Kinch/Muck creek basins north of Albany. This is all within the realm of possibilities after reviewing the afternoon model guidance, which does indicate some of the heavier rainfall totals.

This system will be a quick mover, so the potential for flash flooding is somewhat reduced. However, heavy rainfall rates occurring over an urban area like Albany or Tifton could create the potential for flash flooding Tuesday night. It's still a little too early for a flash flood watch, as we'd need rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches, and confidence in the higher amounts is not great enough to warrant a watch at this time.

Elsewhere across the region, ongoing river flooding continues in the Middle Suwannee. The river has crested at Luraville at about 21.5kcfs and we should see the crest occur at Branford tomorrow evening. Projecting these flows downstream below Rock Bluff, it appears as though we'll end up just short of minor flood stage at Wilcox, and possibly at Manatee Springs as well.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 57 62 55 64 47 / 40 50 80 30 0 Panama City 57 66 54 62 49 / 50 40 90 10 0 Dothan 49 54 49 59 44 / 60 90 100 10 0 Albany 49 54 48 59 43 / 60 90 100 30 0 Valdosta 54 60 52 61 45 / 40 80 80 40 0 Cross City 59 67 60 69 49 / 20 30 60 50 0 Apalachicola 59 66 56 64 50 / 60 30 70 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 3 PM CST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . Bunker SHORT TERM . Johnstone LONG TERM . Johnstone AVIATION . Bunker MARINE . Johnstone FIRE WEATHER . Bunker HYDROLOGY . Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 16 mi20 min S 8 G 8.9 69°F 1016.9 hPa (-0.0)69°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi86 min S 5.1 G 8 70°F 1015.4 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 57 mi95 min S 4.1 73°F 1017 hPa72°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for K40J

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6SW5CalmNW10CalmCalmW4SW4CalmCalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Rock Islands, Florida
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Rock Islands
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:05 AM EST     3.33 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:26 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:29 PM EST     3.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:52 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.433.33.12.61.70.90.2-0.2-0.20.31.122.73.23.22.821.20.4-0.1-0.3-0

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:59 AM EST     3.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:25 AM EST     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:23 PM EST     3.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:51 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.43.13.33.12.51.70.80.1-0.2-0.20.31.122.83.23.12.721.10.4-0.2-0.3-0

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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