Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Perry, FL

SHORT TERM
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For today, another active day is expected as waves of eastward moving thunderstorms with embedded heavy rain ahead move into the area ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A very moist airmass will support high convective coverage capable of producing localized flooding, frequent lightning, and strong-gusty winds. The greatest chance of heavy rain is across the Wiregrass and Flint River Valley where a marginal to slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall is in place. Any training and/or backbuilding storms will enhance flood potential.

Forcing from the front is likely to keep convection lingering into the evening despite the loss of daytime heating. Regarding the chance of severe weather today, DCAPE will be less than the past couple of days due to further moistening of the airmass. However, the environmental flow is actually forecast to be quite strong for June standards locally with westerly 850 mb winds of 25-30 knots expected. This could add some momentum to the thunderstorm wind gusts today in what will still be a high CAPE environment. We can't rule out a few severe thunderstorms with gusty winds.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s with peak heat indices generally from 95-105F. Lower rain potential along the coast makes the beaches an attractive outdoor option, but stay cognizant of the rip current risk and beach flags if visiting today.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The wet pattern will continue through much of the work week thanks to the expected lingering presence of a stagnant frontal boundary attendant to a broad northern stream upper trough. Further complicating matters is the potential for a slug of tropical moisture lifting north from the central Gulf Coast and interacting with the front along the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. Rain chances are therefore high nearly areawide for the remainder of the long-term period, maximized during the afternoons. Localized flooding will remain possible with the heaviest downpours.
Widespread highs in the 80s are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday as cloud cover increases amidst rain-cooled air. Readings increase to the upper 80s-low 90s from Thursday into next weekend. Overnight lows in the 70s will remain common.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A line of TSRA will impact DHN and ABY through 07-08Z leading to brief restrictions and gusty winds. A potential of low clouds/fog leading to brief restrictions this morning, mainly at VLD where confidence was highest to include in the TAF.

More widespread coverage of SHRA/TSRA is expected this afternoon and evening. Have included PROB30 groups at all the terminals and will likely shift to TEMPO groups as timing draws nearer. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in heavier TSRA, otherwise VFR. For Monday night, guidance indicates the potential for restrictions in low clouds which is highest at ABY. That said, it's still a low probability given the uncertainty, so will maintain VFR for now. Westerly winds around 5 to 10 kts through the TAF period.

MARINE
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Moderate west to southwest breezes will prevail for the couple of days with some local enhancements near the coast due to the sea breeze. The highest forecast rain chances are currently Tuesday and Wednesday when a frontal boundary sags into the Deep South.
Maritime convection will pose a gusty wind, frequent lightning, and a waterspout threat. Winds will turn more southerly by the middle to end of the week and remain elevated.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

An increasingly wetter pattern will take shape starting today when a slow moving front sags south towards the area. High rain chances are forecast generally along and north of I-10 with wetting rains expected. West to southwest winds prevail in addition to daily afternoon seabreezes.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For today through Wednesday, a marginal to slight to risk of flash flooding continues to be a concern, mainly across the western and northern halves of the area. A slow moving frontal boundary coupled with high preciptable water values is expected to result in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain. Current flash flood guidance shows that it would take about 3-5 inches of rain in a 3 hour period to result in flash flooding, or 4-6 inches of rain in a 6 hour period. River remain on the low side from the ongoing drought conditions, so significant riverine flooding is currently not expected.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 92 74 86 73 / 90 50 80 60 Panama City 89 76 86 75 / 40 40 60 80 Dothan 89 71 79 70 / 90 60 80 80 Albany 91 71 80 70 / 90 70 90 80 Valdosta 92 72 85 71 / 90 50 80 70 Cross City 92 77 91 75 / 20 40 40 50 Apalachicola 89 79 87 77 / 10 10 50 70

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.