Thursday, November21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday November 21, 2019 3:46 PM CST (21:46 UTC) Moonrise 1:58AMMoonset 3:01PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 314 Pm Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..North winds near 5 knots becoming east late in the morning, then becoming south in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 314 Pm Cst Thu Nov 21 2019
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will move east and develop an onshore flow tonight through Friday. A cold front will push off the coast Saturday morning and early afternoon. Cool high pressure then builds into the gulf Saturday evening through Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 210940 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 340 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2019

SHORT TERM. Increasing vorticity in the upper levels today combined with a feed of upper level moisture advecting in from the Pacific Ocean will bring increasing high level cloud cover to the area today and tonight. The low and mid-levels will remain rather dry through tonight, and do not have any rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will continue to advect in some warmer air from the central Gulf, and this will push temperatures back into the lower to middle 70s today. Temperatures will be slow to fall tonight due to the increase in high level cloud cover and continued warm air advection into the region. Lows should only dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

The strong southerly flow off the Gulf will finally advect in some deeper moisture during the day tomorrow, and expect to see thicker cloud cover and increased rain chances develop by tomorrow afternoon across the northwest third of the forecast area. Strong positive vorticity advection and increased omega values in the upper levels will also support the development of shower activity. Temperatures will remain very mild with highs in the middle 70s expected.

A deepening low pressure system will produce a fairly strong cold front by tomorrow afternoon across the southern Plains states. This front and an associated upper level trough axis will sweep through the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning. At this time, the risk of thunderstorm activity looks very low due to weak lapse rates and very limited instability. MLCAPE values are currently forecast to be in the 200 to 300 J/KG range which is too low to support much in the way of deeper convective activity. As a result, only have showers in the forecast for the Friday night and Saturday morning timeframe. The front should sweep through the area by mid-day Saturday, and high temperatures should occur in the morning hours across the area. Cooler and drier air should begin to quickly advect into the area, and have a have dry forecast in place by the evening hours. Temperatures should fall from the upper 60s and lower 70s Saturday morning into the upper 50s and lower 60s by the evening hours. By late Saturday night, temperatures should drop into the 40s on the back of deep layer northwest flow.

LONG TERM. Strong surface ridging will take hold on Sunday and remain in place through Monday. In the mid and upper levels, a more zonal flow pattern will set up. A thermal trough axis should linger over the area through Sunday night, and expect to see highs only climb into the lower to middle 60s Sunday afternoon. Lows on Sunday night will be the coldest of the forecast period as clear skies and light winds allow for strong radiational cooling. Reading should dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s north and west of Lake Pontchartrain and the middle 40s south of the lake. The thermal trough should shift to the east by Monday, and increasing southerly flow will allow for some modification in temperatures. Temperatures should warm into the upper 60s by Monday afternoon.

Another shortwave feature will push across the area on Tuesday. A quick increase in moisture will accompany this feature, and expect to see precipitable water values surge from around half an inch to 1.5 inches from Monday night to Tuesday afternoon. Increasing cloud cover and scattered rain showers should develop through the day on Tuesday as strong positive vorticity advection and increased upper level forcing overspreads the Gulf South. Lapse rates look a little more favorable for a few thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening, and have included a slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. At this time, shear profiles would not support any strong or severe thunderstorm development. Temperatures should warm back into the middle 70s by Tuesday due to the strong onshore flow pattern in place across the area.

In the wake of the passing shortwave trough on Wednesday, a weak frontal boundary will slide in from the north and stall somewhere along the coast or just offshore. Slightly cooler air should advect into the area, and highs should be a few degrees cooler in the middle to upper 60s on Wednesday. Continued southwest flow in the mid-levels will support isentropically induced clouds and showers throughout the day on Wednesday. The front should begin to lift north as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday resulting in continued cloud cover and shower activity into Thanksgiving Day. Temperatures should also warm back into the lower 70s as the warm front surges northward through the day.

AVIATION. VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals with just a steady increase in high based ceilings at cirrus levels during the period. 24/RR

MARINE. Moderating high pressure over the Atlantic seaboard will be moving east into the Atlantic today with soft return flow onsetting, becoming more pronounced by tonight into Friday. Low pressure system develops near the Red River Valley with associated cold front that should push into the gulf Saturday morning. This will bring a round of pre-frontal convection that may become a squall line in the coastal waters. Prior to convection, temperatures and dewpoints will be rising through a range of near shore water temperatures conducive for sea fog formation or at least a low marine layer. Any fog formation will clear with frontal passage Saturday morning. Some cold air advection to impart an increase in offshore winds and seas Saturday night into Sunday before setting down later Sunday into Monday. At this time, it does not appear winds get quite strong enough to warrant small craft advisories, but should easily slot into the exercise caution range through Sunday morning. 24/RR

DECISION SUPPORT.

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support for City of New Orleans. Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green = No weather impacts that require action. Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high visibility event; Marginal risk severe or excessive rain. Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or excessive rain. Orange = High Impacts; Enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes. Red = Full engagement for Moderate to high risk of severe and/or excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 73 58 75 60 / 0 0 50 80 BTR 76 61 78 60 / 0 0 40 70 ASD 74 57 77 59 / 0 0 10 50 MSY 74 61 76 63 / 0 0 10 50 GPT 71 59 73 61 / 0 0 10 50 PQL 74 57 76 61 / 0 0 10 40

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.

PG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi52 min ESE 13 G 14 70°F 63°F1019.5 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi52 min E 1.9 G 5.1 72°F 60°F1018.2 hPa
CARL1 23 mi52 min 52°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi52 min ESE 8 G 8.9 67°F 60°F1020.2 hPa
FREL1 39 mi52 min E 7 G 8.9 62°F 1018.1 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi52 min SE 8.9 G 13 71°F 62°F1019 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi53 minESE 810.00 miFair70°F57°F66%1018.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi51 minESE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F61°F66%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASD

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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmE3NE3CalmE3E5SE8SE7SE9SE6
1 day agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4E66SE8SE84SE7
2 days agoSW4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW34W6--45SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM CST     1.01 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:00 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:46 PM CST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.80.9111110.90.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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