Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Green Cove Springs, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:09PM Friday August 14, 2020 2:00 PM EDT (18:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:20AMMoonset 3:43PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202008142145;;438261 Fzus52 Kjax 141336 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 936 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-142145- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 936 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds around 15 knots, becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southwest winds around 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 936 Am Edt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis.. Low pressure organizing near the outer banks will drape a weak trough across southeast georgia today. This trough will then lift northward tonight, with the axis of weak atlantic ridging remaining positioned across the florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds will prevail during the next several days. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over land and will move northeastward across our waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with scattered activity possible offshore during the overnight hours. The atlantic sea breeze will develop each afternoon, with winds becoming onshore over the near shore waters, followed by southerly evening wind surges. Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms will increase from Sunday through the mid portion of next week as a frontal boundary sinks into the southeastern states and then stalls near georgia waters on Sunday.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of aug 13, 2020 at 1200 utc... 65 nautical miles east northeast of flagler beach. 72 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 85 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 102 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Green Cove Springs, FL
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location: 29.99, -81.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 141512 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1112 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON .

UPDATE.

Late morning surface analysis depicts low pressure (1010 millibars) organizing near the NC Outer Banks, with a trough extending southwestward from this feature across south GA and the FL panhandle. Meanwhile, the axis of weak Atlantic ridging was stretching across south FL Aloft. ridges were centered near Bermuda and the Desert Southwest / west TX, with troughing in between located over the Tennessee and lower Mississippi Valleys. This weather pattern was producing gradually deepening southwesterly flow in the low to mid levels across our region per morning soundings. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep moisture remains entrenched across our area, with PWATS around 1.9 inches or greater at most locations. A cumulus field has been slow to develop for locations east of I-75 in northeast and north central FL and east of U.S. Highway 441 in southeast GA, while convection was beginning to increase in coverage along the surface trough west of the Altamaha/Ocmulgee River confluence and also along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze along the FL Big Bend and Nature coasts. Temperatures at 15Z were soaring into the mid to upper 80s, with dewpoints mostly in the mid 70s creating heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

Short-term, high resolution guidance suggests that convection will continue to gradually increase in coverage along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze early this afternoon as this boundary progresses across the Suwannee Valley and north central FL, while isolated convection develops along a pinned Atlantic sea breeze along the immediate coast and also along the St. Johns River breeze during the mid-afternoon hours. Deepening southwesterly flow should push this activity northeastward around 15 mph across the St. Johns River basin in northeast FL, with mesoscale boundary collisions then becoming likely along the I-95 corridor and coastal locations during the late afternoon hours. Meanwhile, widespread convection is expected to move northeastward across our western GA counties this afternoon, triggered by the surface trough situated just northwest of these locations. Model soundings this afternoon show a drier layer of air above 750 millibars (8,500 feet) that will enhance the risk for strong downburst winds within any cells that pulse due to mesoscale boundary collisions. Downdraft CAPE values are progged to increase to near 1000 j/kg across northeast and north central FL per model soundings this afternoon. We expect a broken line of convection to sweep east- northeastward across the I-95 corridor, particularly for locations south of I-10 in coastal northeast FL late this afternoon. Wind gusts of 40-60 mph, frequent lightning strikes and heavy downpours will be the primary hazards this afternoon. Highs will climb to the low and mid 90s all the way to the coastal locations due to the delayed development of the Atlantic sea breeze, with maximum heat index values of 100-105 degrees before convection increases in coverage during the mid to late afternoon hours.

Convection will push offshore before sunset tonight, followed by gradually thinning debris cloudiness overnight. The base of the aforementioned trough will progress slowly eastward overnight, reaching the FL Panhandle before sunrise on Saturday. Strengthening southwesterly flow and divergence aloft should result in convection blossoming over the northeast FL waters late this evening, with this convection overspreading the FL Big Bend and Nature coasts during the predawn hours. This activity should then progress slowly inland over the Suwannee Valley and north central FL around sunrise on Saturday, with scattered coverage expected throughout the morning hours. Lows tonight will fall to the low and mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at coastal locations.

AVIATION. [Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals through at least 18Z. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the inland moving Gulf coast sea breeze this afternoon, with convection moving northeastward around 15 knots and potentially approaching GNV towards 19Z and VQQ towards 20Z. The Atlantic sea breeze boundary will progress slowly inland this afternoon, with isolated thunderstorms developing along this boundary near the coastal terminals and CRG around 20Z, followed by activity along the Gulf coast sea breeze intersecting the Atlantic sea breeze along the I-95 corridor around 21Z. A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will be possible at the regional terminals this afternoon, and we included TEMPO groups for MVFR visibilities and wind gusts to 30 knots from around 19Z through around 00Z. Sustained southwesterly surface winds will increase to 5-10 knots by 14Z at the regional terminals. The inland moving Atlantic sea breeze boundary will shift surface winds to south-southeasterly near 10 knots at SGJ by 18Z and SSI and CRG by 19Z. Convection will move offshore before 00Z, with southwesterly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots expected between 00Z-06Z.

MARINE.

Low pressure organizing near the Outer Banks will drape a weak trough across southeast Georgia today. This trough will then lift northward tonight, with the axis of weak Atlantic ridging remaining positioned across the Florida peninsula. Southwesterly winds will prevail during the next several days. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon over land and will move northeastward across our waters during the late afternoon and early evening hours, with scattered activity possible offshore during the overnight hours. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop each afternoon, with winds becoming onshore over the near shore waters, followed by southerly evening wind surges. Seas of 2-4 feet will prevail during the next several days both near shore and offshore. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase from Sunday through the mid portion of next week as a frontal boundary sinks into the southeastern states and then stalls near Georgia waters on Sunday.

Rip Currents: Prevailing offshore winds and low wave heights will keep a low risk in place at all area beaches through at least Saturday. A low-end moderate risk may be possible by Sunday afternoon at the northeast FL beaches as a longer period east- southeasterly ocean swell emanating from weakening Tropical Storm Josephine arrives in our waters.

FIRE WEATHER.

Gradually strengthening southwesterly transport winds will support good dispersion values across most of our region during the next several days. Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon along the I-95 corridor, with thunderstorm activity moving northeastward around 15 mph this afternoon and around 20 mph during the weekend and early next week.

HYDROLOGY.

Minor flooding continues along the St Mary's River Basin. Other smaller basins like the Black Creek system continues to run above normal due to recent heavy rainfall and will need to be monitored for possible flooding if heavy thunderstorm complex sets up over the basin and stalls over the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION [824 AM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Moist Southwest flow will continue at least another round of scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and early evening. Not sure why the latest NAM/GFS/ECMWF MOS Guidance only suggesting 20-40% storm coverage today, so have gone above this with 40-60% coverage since continued Precipitable Water Amounts (PWATs) of around 2 inches. Convection will kick off on the Gulf Coast Sea Breeze front early this afternoon and meet with ongoing convection along the East Coast Sea Breeze front pinned along the I-95 corridor by late afternoon/early evening hours. Merging of the sea breeze fronts will lead to a few strong possibly isolated severe storms again with downburst wind potential of 40-60 mph along with locally heavy rainfall potential and localized flooding due to recent wet pattern, especially in urban areas. Storm motion generally towards the Northeast at 10-15 mph. Highs generally in the lower to middle 90s inland and near 90 at the Atlc beaches and combined with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to peak Heat Index/Feels Like values around 105 degrees. Activity will fade once again after sunset with humid conditions overnight. The Southwest steering flow increases overnight and may lead to convection after midnight along the Big Bend region of the NE Gomex coast that may track into inland NE FL along the I-75 corridor towards Sat morning.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

A frontal boundary approaching from out of the northwest will result in an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the course of the weekend, with the strongest convection expected to occur in concurrence with daytime heating. Frontal passage will take place over the course of Sunday and Sunday evening with drier air settling in over the region overnight on Sunday. High temperatures for the weekend are expected to reach up into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday].

Drier air over the forecast area on Monday will result in reduced convection for the beginning of next week, with southwesterly flow returning on Tuesday replacing drier air with moist air from out of the Gulf. Conditions for the rest of the week will see a return to the general weather pattern of daily thunderstorms and showers with strong developments occurring in conjunction with sea breeze boundaries. High temperatures for next week will reach into the lower to mid 90s and in the upper 80s, with lower max temps occurring in areas with early cloud and storm developments.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 92 74 90 73 91 / 50 30 80 20 40 SSI 92 78 92 76 90 / 40 50 70 30 50 JAX 95 75 94 75 93 / 50 30 60 20 60 SGJ 93 77 93 75 91 / 60 40 50 10 60 GNV 93 74 91 74 91 / 40 10 50 30 70 OCF 92 74 91 74 90 / 40 20 40 30 70

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 23 mi60 min SSE 7 G 7 87°F 85°F1016.4 hPa (-0.7)76°F
41117 31 mi34 min 85°F2 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 32 mi75 min SSW 4.1 90°F 1018 hPa76°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL17 mi67 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F78°F66%1015.6 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL18 mi64 minSSW 810.00 miMostly Cloudy91°F75°F59%1016.1 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL20 mi70 minSSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy93°F75°F56%1015.9 hPa
Keystone Airpark, FL23 mi65 minWSW 4 G 129.00 miA Few Clouds91°F73°F56%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNIP

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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SW8W6S5SW3SW5S10SW7SW6SW4SW7W5W5W5W4W6CalmS9S8SE7
2 days agoSE7S7S17E7SW5SW9W7W8W4SW3SW5SW5SW4W5NW3SW6CalmW4W6NW5W33NE4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Green Cove Springs, St. Johns River, Florida (6)
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Green Cove Springs
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Fri -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:11 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:07 AM EDT     0.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.70.70.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.70.60.60.50.40.40.40.40.50.60.70.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida
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Black Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:44 AM EDT     4.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:45 AM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:33 PM EDT     4.89 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:04 PM EDT     5.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.35.25.15555.15.35.45.55.45.35.254.94.94.94.955.35.55.65.65.6

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.