Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM Moonrise 1:49 PM   Moonset 2:23 AM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 351 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Friday - South winds around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves around 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers. Saturday - Southwest winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Saturday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - North winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday night - Southwest winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 351 Am Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
southerly winds will gradually increase today into Friday ahead of the next low pressure system. Thunderstorm activity becomes increasingly likely to cause issues tonight through Saturday morning. Headlines for hazardous marine conditions could be raised during this period.

FXUS64 KLIX 160851 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 351 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The sfc part of the old frontal boundary is stalled near the coast this morning and drapes inland near Terrebonne Parish westward to Beuregard Parish. This can be seen with showers developing along this boundary while the 850mb part of this is stalled over the central gulf and this part of the front can be easily seen over the eastern portion of the gulf as storms fire along its boundary.
The 850mb part of this continues through the gulf and comes ashore near Corpus Christi TX. This will be the main line to watch later today as it gets brought back to the north and storms start to fire along it. Rainfall rates will intesify through the day along this boundary and should be most intense with a corridor of heaviest rainfall from near a line from Austin to DeRidder then up to McComb to near Hattiesburg over the next few days. Obviously, the heavy rain will not just lie along this line but either side of it as well. WPC has kept a portion of the area near BTR in a moderate risk which looks warranted. This is also where the current flood watch has been posted and this will remain for now but may be changed a bit for Fri depending on how things unfold.
This boundary will also compartmentalize where severe storms will form. North of this boundary should be all heavy rain but there is the potential for large hail to the north of this boundary. The sfc instability will be through the area this morning and sh/ts are already forming along this sfc instability line, while the elevated instability will start to move through by 3pm. The entire area should be unstable throughout the column before midnight tonight. This deep vertical instability should be evident by where the rain and storms begin to fire later today. Eventhough SPC has a marginal risk level for the area, it still warrants attention as conditions will be conducive for severe storms, just not to the degree that Fri is looking. The first wave moves out Fri morning and fast on its heals will be the next disturbance that should start developing near the Houston area Fri morning and quickly move ENE along this same boundary entering our area around 3pm Fri. The next system will be right behind this one. This third one should develop somewhere between Houston and Corpus late Fri and move ENE at a very rapid pace entering the area around or just after midnight Fri night into Sat morning. This one looks like the same style of systems we have been having for the last several weeks, the wake low type scenario with a very fast moving squall line producing severe wind speeds. We will need to see exactly where and the time this complex forms to pin down any discrete placement and timing lcoally. These Fri systems look quite volatile and will have a lot of energy to use in the form of almost every severe wx variable with all modes of severe possible.
Models have been everso slightly nudging this whole mess northward, but we are still quite confident that most of the area will see strong chances of heavy rainfall and severe storms at some point between today and early Saturday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

Even though the boundary gets left in place across the area Saturday, the sfc low and upper troughing move east bringing the mid and upper support with it after the third disturbance exits the area. This will help alleviate the heavy rain and severe storm threat for most of the weekend. High pressure builds and moves east by the new week but ridges over the gulf coast through about mid week. A new cold front will move to around the Ark/La line before stalling with our area possibly staying rain free for the most of the week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

All terminals will start out VFR and should remain that way through the daylight hours. MVFR cigs will begin to move in before midnight and should be over the entire area by the early morning hours Fri.
There are some IFR cigs that begin to move into the western portion of the area around sunrise Fri. HUM could see some -TSRA before dark today but most terminals will see this through the night hours tonight bringing IFR conditions at times.

MARINE
Issued at 336 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

A weak stalled boundary will begin moving back to the north today which will cause return flow once again and a rise in wind speed through the end of the week. Another few strong disturbances could impact the coastal waters mainly the nearshore and inland waters Thu but the systems moving through on Fri could have some very strong severe storms again moving through at a very fast pace with stong winds over the waters once again. Storms associated with Friday's squall line could produce winds of 50-60kt while the winds behind this squall line could remain in gales again Fri night. High pressure will building back over the area over the weekend into the new week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 86 65 83 68 / 10 80 80 60 BTR 90 71 89 72 / 30 70 60 50 ASD 89 72 89 71 / 10 50 60 50 MSY 87 75 89 75 / 20 40 40 50 GPT 87 72 85 70 / 10 40 50 50 PQL 89 70 87 70 / 0 40 50 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for LAZ034>037-039-046>048-071-081-083.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for MSZ068>071.

GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Thu -- 02:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:05 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM CDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:48 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:55 PM CDT     0.79 feet High Tide
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Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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