Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 1:58 AM   Moonset 1:56 PM

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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 341 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely early this evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this evening. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Saturday - South winds around 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Showers and Thunderstorms. Saturday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening. Sunday - South winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Sunday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Monday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Wednesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 341 Pm Cdt Fri May 31 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
high pressure will remain in place to the northeast through the weekend. This will result in continued south to southeast winds across the coastal waters. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage somewhat Saturday and Sunday. Any stronger Thunderstorms could produce gusts up to gales.

FXUS64 KLIX 312332 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 632 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 446 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Broad rainfall has dropped temperatures up to 8-10 degrees below forecast, so made adjustments to T grid to reflect actuals.

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Tonight through Saturday... Generally, a couple more upper level impulses will move through over the next couple of days. There is still a ton of model uncertainty in the timing of these storms. And in general, the models, especially the CAMs, are going to continue to struggle to pinpoint timing until storms are ongoing and start firing up (real-time to near-time weather basically). So, the timing is a factor that will remain quite uncertain over the next few days.
But overall, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours with peak daytime heating. These storms will have the risk of hail and damaging winds (30-60mph), based on the lapse rates and instability available. Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern (PWs are quite high, climatologically) and could cause minor flooding or ponding on local roads and make visibility while driving difficult.
The localized flooding risk would be higher for urban or vulnerable locations, as is common for this time of year. Overall, stay weather aware over the next few days as we continue in this unsettled pattern for the atmosphere. MSW

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday night)
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Sunday through mid-week... Sunday and Monday, several more upper level impulses will be moving through the area. These will look pretty similar to the last few days, and there are still a lot of uncertainties in the models regarding timing of the best convection.
Generally though, scattered to numerous showers and storms will be expected, especially during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday and Monday. On Monday, the bulk of the rainfall will be more for our northern areas, but this could change as we get closer. These storms will, based on model soundings, likely have the risk of locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and winds (30-60mph). Stay weather aware on Sunday and Monday of next week.

Tuesday through mid-week, conditions should be a bit drier as a weak ridge starts to build in over the area. Generally, rain chances will be lower. An isolated shower will be possible, but likely will not be severe at this time, looking at the models. Temperatures will be a little warmer though, as a result. Highs are forecast to be in the low 90s with lows in the mid 70s. MSW

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VCTS has been the headline with a line of thunderstorms moving west to east across the area. Storm intensity has decreased and most terminals are now VCSH. As the evening progresses, terminals will improve to VFR, with exceptions of MVFR due to lowered ceilings and reduced visibilities at KMCB and KBTR in the early morning hours.

MARINE
Issued at 342 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Benign marine conditions overall. Generally, southerly to southeasterly winds will prevail with moderate to calm winds (10-15kts) throughout the forecast period. Showers and storms will be possible every day, especially in the afternoon and evening hours, through Tuesday which could produce locally higher gusts.
MSW

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 68 83 67 86 / 60 80 20 60 BTR 73 89 73 90 / 30 80 20 60 ASD 73 88 71 89 / 60 90 30 60 MSY 76 88 75 88 / 40 90 30 60 GPT 75 85 73 86 / 70 90 50 60 PQL 73 86 71 87 / 70 90 50 50

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Paris Road Bridge
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Fri -- 01:58 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:54 AM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:55 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:39 PM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:56 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Shell Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:56 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:54 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:52 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana, Tide feet

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