Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 3:40 AM CST (09:40 UTC) Moonrise 5:32PMMoonset 6:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 200 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019 /100 Am Cst Wed Dec 11 2019/
.small craft advisory in effect through late Thursday night...
Today..Northeast winds 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Slight chance of showers in the morning, then chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters rough. Chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers likely in the evening, then showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 200 Am Est Wed Dec 11 2019
Synopsis.. A cold front currently moving through the region will have areas of fog out ahead of it through tonight. Behind the cold front, winds are shifting to northerly/northwesterly, and increasing to small craft advisory levels. These levels are expected to be maintained through the early morning hours on Friday. Isolated gale force gusts are possible across the waters west of mexico beach and beyond 20 nautical miles Wednesday evening. Seas will generally increase to 5-8 feet as the stronger 20-25 knot winds pick up across the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXUS62 KTAE 110742 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 242 AM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

NEAR TERM [Through Today].

An overrunning regime will set up west of the cold front, aided by a stout mid-level shortwave traversing the area. Additional showers are likely today near the Flint and Apalachicola river corridors and points west. Thunder is not expected as elevated instability is lacking. Much cooler compared to Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s, a few degrees below normal. It'll feel even cooler given considerable cloudiness and occasional northerly wind gusts around 20 mph.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday].

The main concern is a period of heavier rainfall and thunderstorm potential Friday and Friday night.

A general overrunning regime is maintained through Thursday night with considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers. It will remain cool with elevated north to northeast winds in place, and high temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

A negatively tilted shortwave trough moves through the TN Valley on Friday. Additional disorganized shortwave energy over the Gulf of Mexico will advect ahead of the greater long wave trough axis. Model solutions continue to struggle with resolving the evolution of low pressure development, in terms of location and strength, with substantial convective feedback noted in the mass fields.

Given high pressure wedged southward into the area, it appears as though a warm front initially over the Gulf of Mexico will struggle to move northward. This will be key in terms of any severe weather potential. If the warm front can lift northward through the area, an isolated severe weather threat could materialize, and this is plausible east of the Flint River and south of I-10. The main concern is the potential for an isolated damaging wind gust or a brief, weak tornado.

While confidence in severe weather is low, it's high for a period of heavy rainfall, with the potential for amounts of 1-2 inches.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Wednesday].

Beyond this Friday and Saturday's system, a brief dry period through the later half of the weekend and early next week is expected ahead of the next system that will impact the area on Monday night and Tuesday. Currently, confidence is low on the impacts and rain totals expected with this system.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Thursday]

Conditions will improve to VFR across the TAF sites by 12Z in the wake of a cold front. Thereafter expect VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. North winds will remain elevated w/ speeds around 10 knots occasionally gusting to around 20 knots.

MARINE.

North to northeasterly winds in the wake of a cold frontal passage will remain elevated into Thursday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters east of the Ochlocknee River through Thursday morning and for the remainder of the waters into Thursday night. Isolated gale force gusts are possible across the waters west of Mexico Beach and beyond 20 nautical miles this evening. Wave heights west of the Ochlocknee River will also approach 8 feet at times. A low pressure system could lead to cautionary conditions late Friday into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER.

Considerable cloudiness and a chance of showers over the next couple of days with below average temperatures in the wake of a cold frontal passage. Relative humidity values will drop this afternoon into the 30 to 40 percent range northwest of the Flint River and I-10. Transport winds will remain elevated out of the north to northeast around 20 knots through Thursday. This will contribute to high dispersions near the I-10 corridor this afternoon, otherwise hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected. Patchy fog is possible early this morning in the southeast Florida Big Bend.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall through Thursday will be light with amounts generally under one-half an inch. A period of heavier rainfall is likely Thursday night and Friday w/the potential for 1-2 inch amounts. At this time, flooding is not a concern given dry antecedent. conditions. Additional rainfall is likely during the early to middle part of next week with another cold frontal passage.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 63 46 65 52 68 / 30 30 30 70 70 Panama City 60 48 63 54 69 / 40 30 40 70 70 Dothan 58 43 56 47 61 / 40 20 40 80 70 Albany 60 44 57 47 61 / 30 20 40 80 80 Valdosta 64 46 64 52 67 / 20 20 30 60 70 Cross City 71 51 71 57 72 / 20 20 20 40 60 Apalachicola 63 50 65 56 69 / 40 30 30 70 80

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ early this morning for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA . None. AL . None. GM . Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.



NEAR TERM . LF SHORT TERM . LF LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . LF MARINE . LF FIRE WEATHER . LF HYDROLOGY . LF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi53 min N 19 G 25 63°F
PCBF1 25 mi65 min NNE 18 G 30 51°F 64°F1023.4 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi53 min N 16 G 20 54°F 63°F1022.5 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi56 min N 19 1023 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi1.7 hrsNNE 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy52°F48°F87%1023.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S9S9S11S10--S6S4S9--S10S10S8S7S9N13N13
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SE7SE4CalmSW5SW7----W8W6SW5W3CalmCalmSE5SE3SE5SE4SE5SE4SE5S7S6
2 days agoE7E7E9E8E10E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Farmdale, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Farmdale
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:45 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:06 AM CST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:34 PM CST     1.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM CST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.210.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.60.811.21.41.51.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:45 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 06:28 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:51 AM CST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:31 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:42 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM CST     1.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:14 PM CST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.20.90.60.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.61.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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