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Marine Weather and Tides Mexico Beach, FL Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 6:08AM

Sunset 7:25PM

Friday August 14, 2020 6:59 AM CDT (11:59 UTC)

Moonrise 1:36AM

Moonset 3:58PM

Illumination 20%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL

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Area Discussion for -

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FXUS62 KTAE 140744 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 344 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2020

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Much of the Southeast will remain under the influence of the approaching shortwave, which will result in broad area-wide synoptic scale ascent. At the surface this morning, strong moisture convergence is occurring along the Panhandle and adjacent Gulf waters as flow around the low-level ridge and the approaching area of low pressure merge. This axis of convergence is expected to gradually shift ESE through the morning and early afternoon as the ridge retreats and the low advances east. This is picked up on well by a few local CAMs which essentially depict today's convective evolution by (1) Convergence axis shifting east focusing storms away from the Panhandle and across the southeast Big Bend through the early afternoon hours (2) Scattered seabreeze convection developing later this afternoon along and north of interstate 10, moving north into S GA/SE AL (3) SW/NE oriented line of storms associated with the trough axis across the western Panhandle and SE AL late this afternoon/early evening. The most widespread convection and thus the highest PoPs will be this morning along the Panhandle coast and early this afternoon across the SE Big Bend. Elsewhere, and later, more scattered storms are expected to be forced along the aforementioned features. Expect highs around 90 to the low 90s, with heat indices around 100 degrees. Convection will shift back offshore (or along the adjacent coast) overnight, with lows falling into the middle 70s area-wide.

SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday].

An upper level trough currently stretched across the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys is expected to sharpen and propagate eastward over northern/central Georgia by Saturday. Given our close proximity of the region to the aforementioned upper level trough, there will be significantly more upper level support for widespread shower and thunderstorm development on Saturday. With the broad upper level divergence coupled with PW values of well over 2 inches across the region, PoPs will be well above climatology with much of the area forecasted to have over 80% PoPs through the afternoon hours. With the enhanced probability of showers and thunderstorms, and ubiquitous amounts of moisture over the region, localized flooding will be a concerned if storm motion is slow or if storms train over the same areas repeatedly. With PW values possibly reaching 2.25 inches over the region, thunderstorms will be extremely efficient rain producers with areas experiencing heavy rain rates and localized flooding. High temperatures are expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s across the region, while lows will fall into the low to mid 70s for much of the area.


LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday].

The previously discussed upper level trough that is expected to impact the region on Saturday will continue to propagate eastward through Sunday and Sunday evening. Much of the region will be on the backside of this upper level trough through Monday. This will slightly lower the PoPs over the region to near climatology levels roughly (30-40%). Overall, with the lifting the aforementioned shortwave upper level trough over the region, the upper flow pattern enters a brief period of a quasi-relaxed state prior to what looks like a very wet pattern ahead starting next week. Starting next Wednesday, a shortwave trough is expected to dig south into the lower Mississippi valley, and become quasi- stationary through the remainder of the period. This pattern is likely attributed to and supported by the deep near stationary ridge that has established itself across the western Conus. Provided this trend in both the ECMWF and GFS continues, there is the likelihood for deep tropical low to mid level moisture to entrain itself across our region. This pattern may lead to future flooding concerns given its forecast potential to remain quasi- stationary just east of the region for several days. Both models also currently suggest the potential for a 30-40 knot 500mb jet to remain over the region during this time. This may lead to slightly stronger afternoon thunderstorms across the region with enhanced mid to upper level shear values. There still exists much uncertainty with this forecast as the pattern does not develop until next Wednesday; however, given that there is some model agreement suggests that a very wet pattern is likely ahead. High temperatures will generally remain in the low 90s and lows will remain in the mid 70s.

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Saturday]

ECP will have the potential for periods of showers and possibly MVFR ceilings/visibilities this morning, otherwise VFR is expected through the TAF outside of storms. Showers and storms will be most likely at ECP this morning, then at VLD and DHN later this afternoon.

MARINE.

Isolated to Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger through the weekend and early work week next week. Winds will generally remain out of the west/southwest at around 10 knots or less with chances for 10-15 knots possible today through Saturday. This will lead to seas between 1-2 feet for all nearshore and offshore waters. These winds and seas can be locally enhanced by shower and thunderstorm activity.

FIRE WEATHER.

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next several days, with a wetter than usual pattern prevailing for the next couple of days.

HYDROLOGY.

Rainfall amounts over the next few days will generally be less than 2 inches for the area; however, with PW well over 2 inches, minor localized flooding may be possible. This includes ponding of water on roadways. Next weeks pattern looks extremely wet for the region with deep tropical moisture coupled with a quasi- stationary upper level trough to our west. This pattern can lead to training of thunderstorms and heavy rainfall. Details are still uncertain at this time; however, this will need to be watched closely as models hone in on a solution.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT.

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

Tallahassee 91 74 90 74 93 / 50 20 80 30 50 Panama City 89 78 88 77 91 / 60 40 80 40 30 Dothan 90 73 89 72 93 / 50 20 90 20 30 Albany 92 74 90 74 93 / 40 30 90 20 30 Valdosta 91 73 89 73 91 / 60 20 90 20 50 Cross City 92 75 90 75 91 / 60 30 70 50 60 Apalachicola 89 78 88 77 91 / 50 40 80 50 40

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AL . None. GM . None.

NEAR TERM . Harrigan SHORT TERM . Bunker LONG TERM . Bunker AVIATION . Harrigan MARINE . Bunker FIRE WEATHER . Harrigan HYDROLOGY . Bunker

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL	13 mi	72 min	S 12 G 16
PCBF1	25 mi	72 min	SSE 11 G 13	76°F	87°F		1015.5 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL	33 mi	72 min	NNW 1.9 G 6	78°F	88°F		1015.3 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL	35 mi	75 min	N 4.1				1016 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL

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Last 24hr

1 day ago

2 days ago

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL	7 mi	64 min	WSW 9	10.00 mi	Light Rain	75°F	72°F	92%	1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPAM

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)

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SE8

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Tide / Current Tables for Farmdale, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida

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Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida

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Gulf Stream Current

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