Monday, August26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:31PM Monday August 26, 2019 5:16 AM CDT (10:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 3:37PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 403 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Widespread dense fog early in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 403 Am Cdt Mon Aug 26 2019
Synopsis.. A weak disturbance will continue to deliver spotty shower and storm chances today. High pressure will briefly build back in for Tuesday, but a front is expected to push into the coastal waters on Wednesday. High pressure will then settle over the waters for Thursday and Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 260926
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
426 am cdt Mon aug 26 2019

Discussion
Quite the complicated forecast lies ahead in the short-range, so
lets dive into the details. Recent radar trends continue to show
stratiform rain showers generally across the whole area, right
underneath low to mid-level dynamic support by a weak trough in
place. There has been some issues with cam guidance that has been
highly aggressive with convective development early this morning,
which has been shown for a few days now. However, an in depth
mesoanalysis early this morning paints a different picture in
regards to what is possible later this morning. Unidirectional
winds in the lower levels persist, with no real backing in surface
winds noticed by latest laps obs analysis. Some surface
instability does exist this morning, but larger scale subsidence
from remnant convection apparently is not helping turn over the
environment and break the minimal cinh in place. With that being
said, a secondary h5 embedded trough axis and attendant vorticity
advection is driving southeastward across northern and
southwestern mississippi, which could help sprout up some
thunderstorms, primarily north of i-10. This activity should
continue to shift east, and have manually nudged pop's to reflect
this. Additionally, coastal convection off the SE la ms coastline
could increase in coverage through the morning, with heavy showers
and a few storms across the ms coastline. Should this convection
develop, some gusty winds may be possible along coastal areas and
into marine zones with some isolated waterspout potential. Overall
for today, storm motion vectors appear to be rather progressive,
averaging around 220 10-14kts. Precipitable water values remain
anomalously high with widespread 2.4 inch totals across the
region. Since storm motions will likely be progressive enough,
along with likely lower storm coverage potential, the flash flood
watch has been allowed to expire on time. But to stress, locally
heavy rainfall will continue to be possible today, with some
localized flooding possible but generally will be isolated.

Good news is this weak trough eventually kicks out to the east,
and drags the better rain chances with it away from the area
later this evening and into tonight, allowing for a slight drying
trend to return. Temperatures build back into the lower 90's on
Tuesday, with the next focus being an approaching front due to
swing through by Wednesday. With building instability out ahead of
the front, cannot rule out some showers strong thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon, primarily along and north of i-10. Just how far
south any thunderstorm activity gets will be highly dependent on
cold pool propagation of any convection to our north, sending an
outflow boundary south across the region but will become clearer
by tomorrow on this potential. Drier air behind this front won't
build in across the area until early Thursday morning, where
precipitable water values drop around the 1.1 to 0.9 range, which
will lead to a crisp feel to the air Thursday and Friday
mornings. Afternoon highs will still build up to the lower 90's,
but overnight lows in the mid to upper 60's appears likely Friday
morning. Not going to get too specific against blended guidance,
but overnight lows reaching the lower 60's could very well be
possible, especially across southern mississippi. Hate to be the
bearer of bad news, but long-range guidance quickly kicks out this
drier air by later Friday through the upcoming weekend, as we
return back into the moist tropical easterlies. This will drag
rain chances back up next weekend to the hit-or-miss coverage.

We will continue to closely monitor the future progression of
tropical storm dorian. Any potential track in the long-range could
lie anywhere from the open atlantic, east of florida to a
dissipating system in the central caribbean. Main takeaway is it
is too far out to dive into details or side one way or another on
guidance, but will continue to be closely watched through the week
and especially next week. Always refer to the national hurricane
center for official forecast and information. Klg

Marine
Spotty ongoing light to moderate rain showers continue across
marine zones this morning. There is a potential for an increase in
storm coverage and intensity, especially near coastal areas of se
la and southern ms. If any one storm becomes strong enough, watch
for gusty, erratic downdraft winds in excess of 25 to 35 knots
and a few isolated waterspouts. Otherwise, overall rain coverage
decreases later this evening and into tonight, with a typical
summertime pattern returning on Tuesday. Wednesday will feature a
cold front passage, shifting winds from the north. However, any
drier air will be short lived with an eventual wind shift from the
east, along with increasing moisture and rain chances into next
weekend. Klg

Aviation
Conditions will range from ifr over more inland airports toVFR near
kmsy and the coastal airports the remainder of the overnight early
morning. Occasional shra -ra will have brief impacts at some
airports during early morning as well. Gradual improvement toVFR at
inland airports is expected, however more robust shra tsra could
develop in areas during late morning and afternoon hours, however
coverage should be isolated to scattered. 22 td

Decision support
Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 85 73 91 73 80 10 50 20
btr 87 76 92 76 80 10 40 20
asd 87 74 92 74 90 20 50 20
msy 88 77 92 78 80 20 40 10
gpt 85 75 89 75 90 40 50 30
pql 85 74 91 74 80 40 50 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch until 7 am cdt this morning for laz036-037-039-
040-046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch until 7 am cdt this morning for msz069>071-077-
080.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi47 min S 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 85°F1011 hPa
CARL1 9 mi47 min 87°F
FREL1 21 mi47 min S 5.1 G 7 78°F 1010.5 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 87°F1012 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi47 min Calm G 1 78°F 83°F1011.8 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi47 min SSW 6 G 12 80°F 86°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi3.4 hrsSSE 68.00 miOvercast79°F75°F90%1011.4 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi3.4 hrsS 410.00 miLight Rain80°F75°F87%1012.2 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi82 minS 410.00 miOvercast79°F79°F100%1011.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4----W6S7--E5----S8S8SW11S8S12S8W12S12S7S7S7--S8--SE6
1 day agoSE4CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5SE6E8E9E11SE8SW17--SW3CalmCalmCalm----E4SE4--
2 days ago--Calm--S8E3--SE5--S7SW3S3--5S4S7--SW6CalmS5--------SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM CDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.30.40.60.70.911.21.31.41.51.51.51.41.31.210.80.60.40.30.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:13 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:07 AM CDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:11 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.30.50.60.811.21.41.51.71.81.81.81.71.61.41.210.70.50.30.20.10

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.