Monday, January25, 2021
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 5:33PM Monday January 25, 2021 3:17 PM CST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:42PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 858 Am Cst Mon Jan 25 2021
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cst this morning...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning, then patchy dense fog late in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Visibility 1 mile or less early in the morning.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east late in the afternoon. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers in the evening. Chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas building to 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 858 Am Cst Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis..A cold front will stall over the area today and remain in place through tomorrow night. Another stronger front will then sweep through the region on Wednesday. High pressure will build over the waters Wednesday night and remain in place through Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 251725 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1125 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021

UPDATE. Updated for the 18Z aviation discussion.

AVIATION. Valid 18Z Monday, January 25 through 00Z Wednesday, January 27 . IFR conditions prevail at all area airports. Some fog is clearing out of the area currently, and MVFR conditions will be possible this afternoon and evening. Some showers are expected to move through the area during the overnight hours that could cause some lower visibilities and ceilings with IFR conditions at most area airports. Some patchy fog is also possible around daybreak that would cause lower ceilings and IFR conditions or lower. MSW

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 753 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021/

UPDATE . Visibilities have once again decreased across the tidal lakes with web cams and observations indicating visibilities of one quarter to one half mile. Due to this had to extend the dense fog back westward to cover the tidal lakes. Dense fog also persists along the MS coast, and have extended the dense fog advisory in time to 10 AM. The thinking has not changed that increasing onshore flow will lead to improving conditions along the MS coast and over the tidal lakes by mid-morning. PG

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 607 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021/

UPDATE . Visibilities have improved markedly over the past couple of hours across much of the forecast area. The only area where reduced visibilities are still observed on webcams and through automated observations is along the Mississippi coast. Thus, the dense fog advisory has been extended until 8 AM for the coast and adjacent Mississippi Sound and has been allowed to expire for the remainder of the area. Conditions are expected to improve after 8 AM as southerly winds and boundary layer mixing increases. PG

PREV DISCUSSION . /issued 342 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021/

SHORT TERM . Dense fog advisories will remain in place for the next couple of hours, but increased southerly flow and boundary layer mixing has already been noted over portions of Southeast Louisiana. This has allowed for improved visibilities over the past hour at most locations, but some pockets of dense fog persist along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts. Given the trends, the advisory will likely be allowed to expire at 6 AM.

Beyond the fog threat, a frontal boundary will slide into the forecast area by this afternoon, and a band of showers and scattered thunderstorms will accompany this front. Have high end chance of likely POP in the forecast today with the highest values across the northern and western third of the CWA. Farther to the south and east, only isolated shower activity is expected through this afternoon. Very warm temperatures will also develop today with highs easily climbing into the middle to upper 70s.

The front will stall across the forecast area tonight and then linger over the region through tomorrow night as the upper level trough driving the front southeastward quickly lifts to the northeast and out of the region and a largely zonal flow pattern aloft takes hold. A series of fast moving and very weak upper level impulses embedded within the zonal flow regime will keep a fair amount of upper level forcing in place through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. The front will serve as a focus from continued convective development through the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning. Fortunately, rain totals are not expected to be excessive due to the fast motion of the showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger upper level trough will eject out of the Four Corners tomorrow and sweep across the Lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow night into Wednesday. Increasing positive vorticity advection and more favorable jet dynamics will result in deep layer forcing across the Gulf South. The stationary front lingering over the region will serve as a focus for continued convective development, and expect to see periods of light to moderate rain showers and some embedded thunderstorms from tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. Fortunately, shear will remain rather limited, and no severe thunderstorm activity is expected. The storm motion will also be very progressive, so the threat of heavy rainfall will also be limited. Temperatures will remain very warm with highs climbing into the middle 70s tomorrow. Lows will be closer to the average high for this time of year in the upper 50s and lower 60s both tonight and tomorrow night.

Improving conditions are forecast for Wednesday as a surface front sweeps through the area in the morning, and strong negative vorticity advection takes hold by Wednesday afternoon and persists into Wednesday night. Lingering showers in the morning will quickly shift to the east by the afternoon, and expect to see skies begin to clear from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours as increasing dry air advection and upper level subsidence takes hold. As winds turn to the northwest, colder air will also advect into the area, and temperatures will peak in the morning with highs in the middle to upper 60s forecast. By the afternoon hours, temperatures should begin to dip into the lower 60s. As the cold air continues to push into the area Wednesday night, lows will easily dip into the upper 30s and lower 40s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday) .

Surface high pressure will bring much cooler and drier air into the region by early Thursday as the shortwave trough moves off the southeast coast. Highs on Thursday are only expected to reach the mid 50s under mostly sunny skies after morning lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The southern periphery of the large surface ridge axis will move over the forecast area Thursday night, so clear skies and lighter winds will set up a cold night with lows in the low to mid 30s north of the I/10-12 corridor to the upper 30s to lower 40s south of I-10/Lake Pontchartrain. A mid/upper level ridge axis will slide east over the mid to lower Mississippi valley Friday with surface high pressure starting to move east of the forecast area. This will help push the high temperatures back closer to normal near 60 to the lower 60s.

A series of shortwave troughs moving across the southwest states into the southern plains region will likely move into the mid/lower Mississippi valley late Saturday. Have maintained low rain chances returning to far northwest areas Saturday afternoon with somewhat higher rain chances across the area Saturday night. A secondary minor shortwave trough could also move through on Sunday along with renewed low rain chances. Temperatures are expected to return to mild/above normal levels again over the weekend. 22/TD

MARINE . Increasing southerly flow in advance of an approaching front today will clear out any lingering dense fog early this morning. These increased winds will result in a period of exercise caution conditions today over the western Gulf waters. The gradient flow should weaken back below 15 knots later tonight through tomorrow night as a frontal boundary stalls along the coast. Some fog may develop south of the front late tonight into tomorrow morning, but confidence is lower than average. Confidence is higher that showers and a few thunderstorms will impact the coastal waters tonight into tomorrow. A stronger front will push through the waters on Wednesday, and stronger northwest flow will develop behind the front for Wednesday night and Thursday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for the open Gulf waters during this period. As high pressure becomes centered over the area Friday into Saturday winds will turn easterly and then southeasterly and also weaken to around 10 knots.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 77 58 73 55 / 60 40 50 70 BTR 78 61 74 59 / 50 40 50 60 ASD 78 63 75 60 / 20 40 70 80 MSY 78 64 74 63 / 20 30 70 70 GPT 72 63 73 61 / 20 40 70 80 PQL 76 63 75 61 / 20 40 80 80

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi47 min SSW 13 G 20 74°F 58°F1008.5 hPa
CARL1 9 mi47 min 46°F
FREL1 21 mi47 min SSW 11 G 17 74°F 1007.8 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi47 min S 12 G 17 74°F 65°F1010.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi47 min SSW 8.9 G 13 75°F 65°F1009.6 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi47 min S 8 G 12 71°F 58°F

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi24 minSSW 19 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy75°F66°F74%1008.8 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi24 minS 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1009.2 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi22 minS 18 G 256.00 miFog/Mist and Breezy75°F72°F90%1009.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE10E11E11E9E9E10E10E11E9E10E10E9E8E7E10E9E9E8E8SE8SE7S10SE9SE11
2 days agoE4E5NE7E4NE4SE3E4NE3E4NE4E5NE8E8NE9NE8NE9E9E10E11E15E14E14E13E12

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:00 AM CST     0.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:19 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:53 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:02 PM CST     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:31 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.90.80.70.60.40.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.60.80.9

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:18 AM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:04 AM CST     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:41 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:30 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:56 PM CST     1.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.110.90.70.50.30-0.2-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.2-00.10.30.50.70.911.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.