Tuesday, April7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Metairie, LA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:24PM Tuesday April 7, 2020 2:02 PM CDT (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 6:10PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1035 Am Cdt Tue Apr 7 2020
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1035 Am Cdt Tue Apr 7 2020
Synopsis..High pressure will remain through mid week. A cold front will settle into the coastal waters late Thursday, followed by a surge of cool high pressure Friday. This front is then expected to surge northward as a warm front Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metairie, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.11     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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FXUS64 KLIX 071749 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1249 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020

AVIATION.

Warm front now north of Interstate 20 with onshore flow well established. Per this morning's LIX sounding, warm nose above 800 mb capping off deep convective threat locally, but still allowing isolated rain showers. MVFR ceilings pretty common across the terminals this afternoon, but could briefly go to VFR. Expect a period of at least several hours late this afternoon and evening where VFR conditions are more likely before ceilings begin lowering again. Likely to maintain enough air movement to preclude fog overnight, but could see IFR ceilings for several hours around sunrise before ceilings return to around FL020 by mid-morning. 35

PREV DISCUSSION. /issued 312 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2020/

DISCUSSION .

Current overview of the weather maps this morning illustrates the northern Gulf coast under the control of southerly, Gulf moist return flow west of a surface high anchored offshore of northeastern Florida in the Atlantic and a weak stationary front across the central Gulf. Gazing at the mid-levels of the troposphere reveals a dominant ridging pattern associated with anomalously higher heights across a large portion of the central and eastern US. Around the periphery of the ridge will be several small pieces of energy - one already becoming sampled across southwestern Texas that will rotate around the edge of the higher heights of the ridge. This first piece of energy will rotate NE across AR, eventually shifting E to ESE across north-central MS later today. With increasing surface moisture, our instability profile will respond with much more fuel for thunderstorms to develop. As previously mentioned before, it was once thought the best rain chances will stay more to our north today in association with better dynamic ascent with the mid-level disturbance. However, CAM's are starting to come in good agreement over the idea of a cluster of convection developing across coastal SE LA/southern MS between 15 and 18Z today. A further investigation of the synoptic set up and model soundings support this scenario, as the aforementioned weak stationary front drifts north as a warm front, helping to surge higher moisture/PW's across the area leading to an attendant increase in surface based instability. Given all of this, it will not take much to spark thunderstorm development, and a weak wind shift/surface convergence with the northward moving warm front will be just enough to develop thunderstorms. NBM guidance jumped on this idea with such high confidence in CAM solutions - and will introduce this increase in shower/storm coverage today for these areas. Otherwise, temperatures today and Wednesday will remain well above-normal. One thing worthy of noting is with the surge in moisture along with continued above-normal temperatures, heat indicies will peak in the lower to mid 90's, especially for areas away from the rain (generally along and west of I-55) with the same values, more widespread than today expected on Wednesday.

Beyond mid-week into late week and into the weekend is where things get interesting. While all eyes remain on the very powerful, deep upper-level low swirling its way east across SOCAL/N MEX, one thing to watch will be a very strong cold front diving southeast across the central Plains/Midwest later Wednesday/early Thursday. NAM/GFS solutions agree that the front will pass the area midday Thursday (going faster with the timing as these fronts usually are quicker than models can pick up on - in fact late hour NAM3KM 00Z run places the front across MCB 12Z THU). Just how much dynamic forcing with this front sparks shower/storm coverage remains to be seen - and will advertise low confidence for now. However, this set up can be tricky, especially how cold-pool maintenance/surging frontogenetics can and usually do allow for storms to make it south enough for storms to continue into the area. Will be able to narrow more specifics down later today/tonight. Meanwhile, this is not even the main feature to monitor, as this happens - a large stretched area of energy rotates NE across the downstream portion of the upper-low out west into southwest Texas. This area of vorticity appears rather sufficient when compared to others in the next few days, and will likely ride across the then post-frontal environment along the Gulf coast during the afternoon/evening and night time hours Thursday. This will also need to be closely monitored, as model guidance supports elevated convection/heavy rain setting up somewhere across our CWA - more likely areas north of I-10/12. The WPC mentions in their Day 3-7 hazards of this corridor likely developing, and delivering heavy rain and possible flooding conditions in our CWA beginning in this time frame. More details will come in the next day or so but look for this potential by late week.

This system quickly exits, and then we have to deal with the upper-low out west, as it steadily opens up to more of a short- wave across central and eastern texas by late Saturday, become positively tilted and help deliver yet another round of showers and storms come Saturday through early Sunday. Once again, a stationary front/possible warm front will serve as a focus for heavy rain/thunderstorms generally across the same areas along and north of I-10/12 into southern MS. The severe weather threat is still unclear, but will need to be monitored in the warm sector likely across SE LA. This system shoots east Sunday morning - and will be followed by drier and much cooler weather into early next week. KLG

AVIATION .

Cigs should be the only variable pushing any terminal into IFR or lower conditions. Vis should remain 3sm or better for the most part through this taf cycle. There will be some showers around today mainly over the northern half of the area and a TS could be observed as well. The mention of -SHRA may be used but chances are not high enough to mention TS at the moment.

MARINE .

SE winds will become SW today and remain at the same speed. Winds then become more variable by Thursday and a cold front could push into the northern gulf early Friday bringing northerly winds at 15- 20kt shifting to easterly by early Saturday. The front will stall and quickly return as a warm front Saturday bringing southerly winds back to the area. There will be times of sh/ts Thursday through the weekend. A cold front should move through by the start of the new week bringing northerly winds at around 20kt.

DECISION SUPPORT .

DSS code: Blue. Deployed: None. Activation: None. Activities: Forecast support for critical IDSS locations. River Flood Warnings.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. MCB 81 69 85 69 / 20 10 20 10 BTR 84 70 87 70 / 30 0 10 0 ASD 84 70 87 69 / 50 0 10 0 MSY 85 72 87 71 / 30 0 0 0 GPT 78 70 83 70 / 50 0 10 0 PQL 80 68 85 68 / 40 10 10 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. LA . None. GM . None. MS . None. GM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 0 mi45 min S 9.9 G 13 81°F 74°F1015.8 hPa
CARL1 7 mi45 min 62°F
FREL1 17 mi45 min SSW 4.1 G 7 81°F 1015.3 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 23 mi51 min SSW 7 G 12 83°F 75°F1016.9 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 26 mi51 min S 11 G 14 78°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 46 mi51 min S 8.9 G 11 77°F 75°F1017.5 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA8 mi70 minSSE 97.00 miOvercast83°F73°F74%1017 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA15 mi2.1 hrsS 810.00 miOvercast78°F73°F87%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNEW

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------------------------------------------SE11
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:22 AM CDT     0.66 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:29 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:53 PM CDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:09 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:35 AM CDT     0.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:31 AM CDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:06 PM CDT     0.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:08 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:35 PM CDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 11:21 PM CDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.