Wednesday, May27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Asbury Lake, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:25AMSunset 8:22PM Wednesday May 27, 2020 2:20 AM EDT (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:42AMMoonset 11:56PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 814 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Rest of tonight..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the morning. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east northeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 814 Pm Edt Tue May 26 2020
Synopsis.. Broad low pressure extending from north central florida eastward to the gulf stream waters will move northward through the georgia coastal waters this evening and will then approach coastal south carolina by early Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas subside from south to north with sca conditions coming to an end for all coastal waters tonight. Atlantic ridging will then extend over the region through Friday, resulting in active afternoon sea breezes over the near shore waters and southerly wind surges each evening. Chances for mainly evening and overnight showers and Thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A cold front will then move through on Sunday, with onshore winds developing in the wake of this front.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 23, 2020 at 1200 utc... 57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 80 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 98 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Lake, FL
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location: 30.08, -81.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 270608 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 208 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

AVIATION. [Through 06Z Thursday]

A few showers still linger on through the early morning hours with increasing convection with potential thunderstorms developing throughout the day. Winds will shift with the passage of a low pressure system moving northward, but will settle to being out of the SW in the evening. Ceilings will be a mix of IFR and MVFR through the day, with low stratus lifting in the morning and then dropping as foul weather develops.

PREV DISCUSSION [735 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Wednesday].

Broad low pressure will continue to progress slowly northward tonight, with this feature traversing coastal northeast Florida early this evening and then progressing through the coastal waters adjacent to southeast Georgia overnight. Bands of heavy rainfall along the I-95 corridor in the metro Jacksonville area will shift northward into coastal southeast Georgia by the mid-evening hours, with slow moving diurnal convection triggered by the Gulf coast sea breeze waning over north central Florida and southern portions of the Suwannee Valley shortly after sunset. Low stratus ceilings will then overspread our region overnight, with isolated to widely scattered showers possible on the western periphery of the low pressure center, mainly for locations along and north of the Interstate 10 corridor. Clouds and light north-northeast winds will keep lows in the upper 60s inland and the lower 70s at the coast.

Low pressure will slowly move northward through the near shore Atlantic coastal waters towards the South Carolina low country on Wednesday morning, keeping a light north-northeast low level flow in place through the mid-morning hours. Low stratus ceilings will likely be slow to improve on Wednesday morning, with breaks in the cloud cover developing before noon as flow aloft transitions to southwesterly as the cutoff cyclone aloft over the Southern Plains digs slowly southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Abundant low level moisture and steepening lapse rates should trigger widespread convection on Wednesday afternoon for locations along and north of Interstate 10, with at least scattered convection expected elsewhere in northeast and north central Florida along and east of I-75 as the Gulf coast sea breeze merges with the Atlantic sea breeze boundary in the vicinity of I-95 by late afternoon. A few storms may pulse and become strong during the late afternoon hours as mesoscale boundaries collide, with gusty winds of 40-50 mph, locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes being the primary threats. Highs should quickly rise to the 85-90 degree range during the early to mid afternoon hours as breaks in the cloud cover develop.

SHORT TERM [Wednesday Night Through Friday Night].

Cutoff troughing aloft spinning over the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday night and Thursday will open on Friday as a potent shortwave trough traversing the Great Lakes region lifts this feature slowly northeastward into the Tennessee Valley by Friday night. Stout ridging will only slowly weaken off the U.S. eastern seaboard late this week, with the axis of the "Bermuda" surface ridge remaining in place across central Florida during this time period, resulting in deep south-southwesterly flow locally that will provide plenty of moisture for widespread afternoon and early evening convection along inland-moving sea breeze boundaries. Highs on Thursday should soar into the lower 90s at inland locations due to less morning cloud cover, with mid to upper 80s at coastal locations as the sea breeze develops shortly after noon and progresses inland. Convection could get an earlier start on Friday as the cutoff trough opens up and drives embedded shortwave energy into our region from the northeast Gulf of Mexico, which may keep highs mostly in the 85-90 degree range. Lows in this humid air mass will only fall to the lower 70s at most locations.

LONG TERM [Saturday Through Tuesday].

A developing long wave trough over the eastern third of the nation this weekend will drive a cold front into the southeastern states on Saturday. This front will move across inland southeast Georgia by early Sunday morning and the rest of our region by Sunday afternoon. Strengthening west-southwesterly flow will result in numerous afternoon and early evening thunderstorms on Saturday along the I-95 corridor and throughout southeast Georgia ahead of the approaching front, with scattered convection expected elsewhere. Highs on Saturday should approach 90 before convective coverage increases early in the afternoon, with mid 80s forecast at coastal locations as a pinned Atlantic sea breeze boundary develops and potentially becomes the focus for a few strong thunderstorms later in the day. Lows Saturday night should again only fall to the upper 60s to lower 70s as the front moves into our region.

Long-term models continue to disagree somewhat on how quickly the front will cross our region on Sunday, which will determine whether thunderstorms will become widespread over our region or if convection becomes confined to the south of our area by late afternoon. Model blends currently split the difference and depict scattered coverage, but a cooler and unseasonably dry air mass should filter into southeast Georgia by Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds southward from the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley in the wake of the frontal passage. This high pressure center will then settle over the Mid-Atlantic region early in the week, creating brisk northeasterly winds and keeping temperatures below early June climatology throughout our area. Highs along the Atlantic coast should be held in the lower 80s early next week, with mid 80s expected elsewhere at inland locations. Lows may fall to near 60 at inland locations early next week where winds decouple, while onshore winds keep lows at the coast in the upper 60s to near 70. The drier air mass in place should result in dry weather nearly region-wide as the frontal boundary pushes all the way through central Florida, with dewpoints falling to the 60-65 degree range, which will feel delightful in early June.

MARINE.

Broad low pressure extending from north central Florida eastward to the Gulf Stream waters will move northward through the Georgia coastal waters this evening and will then approach coastal South Carolina by early Wednesday afternoon. Winds and seas over the northeast Florida waters will diminish towards midnight tonight, followed by decreasing winds and seas for the Georgia waters towards sunrise. Small Craft Advisory conditions should exit our waters by sunrise on Wednesday.

Atlantic ridging will then extend its axis across central Florida from Wednesday through Friday, resulting in active afternoon sea breezes over the near shore waters and southerly wind surges each evening. Winds and seas should remain mostly below Caution levels for the rest of the week. Chances for mainly evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A cold front will then move through the Georgia waters on Sunday morning and the northeast Florida waters by Sunday afternoon, with onshore winds developing in the wake of this front by Sunday afternoon and evening.

FIRE WEATHER.

Southwesterly surface and transport winds will develop after sunrise on Wednesday in north central Florida, with lighter winds expected for inland portions of southeast Georgia, where low daytime dispersion values are expected. The Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breeze boundaries will develop early on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons and will move inland, with onshore surface winds developing behind this boundary along the I-95 corridor during the afternoon hours. Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop on Wednesday afternoon for locations along and north of Interstate 10, with even more widespread coverage expected on Thursday afternoon as transport winds become south-southwesterly area-wide with gradually increasing speeds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 84 70 88 70 84 / 40 20 70 30 80 SSI 83 73 86 74 83 / 60 40 40 40 70 JAX 88 72 91 72 87 / 60 50 50 30 80 SGJ 88 72 89 72 85 / 50 40 50 40 70 GNV 89 70 91 71 88 / 40 20 60 20 80 OCF 89 71 91 71 90 / 20 20 60 20 80

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT early this morning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JXUF1 20 mi51 min 79°F
NFDF1 23 mi51 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 68°F
DMSF1 24 mi51 min 78°F
BLIF1 25 mi57 min NNE 5.1 G 7 76°F 1012.7 hPa76°F
LTJF1 27 mi57 min 76°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 28 mi51 min NE 6 G 7 76°F 76°F1012.1 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 30 mi81 min 76°F 76°F1011.8 hPa (+0.0)
41117 36 mi51 min 77°F6 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 40 mi96 min WSW 1.9 74°F 1013 hPa74°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 44 mi51 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 77°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cecil Airport, FL11 mi26 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist75°F73°F94%1011.8 hPa
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL12 mi28 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast77°F72°F85%1011.4 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL21 mi28 minNNE 38.00 miOvercast75°F73°F96%1011.7 hPa
Keystone Airpark, FL22 mi26 minNE 38.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1011.8 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL24 mi25 minN 010.00 mi76°F73°F94%1011.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVQQ

Wind History from VQQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr33CalmCalmNE4E8E8E12E12E13E11
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1 day agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmE5E6E8E10E102E12E10E10SE10SE10SE10E13E10E9E6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E7SE6SE8SE10E10E10E10E10SE12E10E7Calm----3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida
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Black Creek
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Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:39 AM EDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:41 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:28 PM EDT     4.89 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:10 PM EDT     4.86 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.955.35.65.75.75.75.55.35.154.94.94.95.15.35.55.55.55.45.254.94.9

Tide / Current Tables for Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida
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Orange Park
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:07 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:49 AM EDT     0.47 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:40 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:55 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:53 PM EDT     0.33 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:40 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.20.10.30.40.50.40.30-0.2-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.30.30.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.