Asbury Lake, FL Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asbury Lake, FL

May 5, 2024 4:06 PM EDT (20:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:38 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM
Moonrise 3:56 AM   Moonset 4:39 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202405060915;;676227 Fzus52 Kjax 051742 Cwfjax
coastal waters forecast for northeast florida/southeast georgia national weather service jacksonville fl 142 pm edt Sun may 5 2024
atlantic coastal waters from altamaha sound ga to flagler beach fl out to 60 nm.
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the occasional height of the average highest 1/10 of the waves.
amz450-452-454-060915- coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm- coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm- 142 pm edt Sun may 5 2024

Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas around 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms this evening.

Monday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Monday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.

Tuesday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.

Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.

Wednesday and Wednesday night - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wave detail: southeast 3 feet at 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.

Thursday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.

Friday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.

Friday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 142 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024

Synopsis -
high pressure will remain anchored northeast of the local waters through Monday allowing afternoon sea breeze development each day. As high pressure repositions further south Tuesday, winds trend southerly and then turn offshore toward as the ridge axis slides farther south toward the end of the upcoming week. Offshore winds will increase Friday ahead of a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday.

Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of may 04, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 90 nautical miles east southeast of jacksonville beach. 101 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Asbury Lake, FL
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Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 051839 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 239 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE

NEAR TERM
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Diurnal heating this afternoon will push East Coast sea breeze inland to merge with the Gulf Coast sea breeze across inland NE FL and with PWATs around 1.5 inches, should see scattered showers/storms this afternoon over most areas with numerous showers/storms over portions of inland NE FL where merger takes place. Slow and erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will lead to locally heavy rainfall as the main storm impact, but still expect a few strong storms with gusty winds to 50 mph, hail and frequent lightning over inland areas where mergers take place.
Activity will fade after sunset and end by midnight with fair skies overnight with lows in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along the coast with brief/patchy fog in some inland locations by sunrise Monday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Monday, low level ridge axis will extend from the western Atlantic waters into NE FL and SE GA. Aloft, trailing shortwave energy from a southern stream trough moving eastward from the TN valley to the southern/central Appalachians will move over the area. Above avg precipitable water levels 1.50-1.75 inches will be in place as southerly low level flow veers more from the SW through the day will focus T'storm development along the Atlantic seabreeze as it moves inland against the SSW surface winds 8-12 mph with SE winds 10-15 mph behind it. The best coverage of showers and T'storms focus between US-1 and higway301 in SE GA southward towards I-10 in NE FL where the best moisture axis will be, with more scattered coverage of showers and T'storms elsewhere. Mid level temps near to slightly warmer than average should limit mid level lapse rates and prevent a threat for severe T'storms, but locally heavy rainfall amounts are possible due to weak storm motions along with a few storms that may produce gusty winds 40-50 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. Highs will be above normal into the upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s at the coast. Showers and T'storms should end in the post sunset/pre-midnight period.

Tuesday, morning lows will begin above normal in the mid to upper 60s over the interior and the upper 60s to around 70 at coast.
Any fog should remain west of the Suwannee river valley. Low level ridge axis will shift southward into central FL with light SW winds 8-12 mph and little higher behind the inland moving Gulf seabreeze 10-15 mph and along the pinned Atlantic seabreeze confined east of I-95. Less moisture compared to Monday will be over the area and limited chances for showers and T'storms expected with widely scattered T'storms possible. With mostly sunny skies, highs will be warmer into the lower 90s for most with mid to upper 80s along the coast.

LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

The period will begin with well above normal temperatures bringing hot conditions to the area Wednesday and Thursday that may possibly challenge daily record highs (see climate section) as low level ridge axis sinks into southern FL. Breezy WSW winds and drier air under the low level ridge will allow for mostly sunny skies and highs reaching into the mid 90s along the I-95 and US-17 corridors as the Atlantic seabreeze stays pinned to the immediate beachfront where highs will rise to the low 90s before the seabreeze moves onshore. Morning lows will start in the upper 60s inland and the low 70s at the coast.

Friday, a more potent mid to upper level trough will swing ESE from the mid MS valley to the interior Mid Atlantic and southern Appalachians and support the eastward progression of a surface cold front through the deep south from the lower MS valley.
Enhanced low and mid level flow ahead of the front will boost moisture levels to above normal with shortwave energy spurring scattered to numerous coverage of showers and T'storms. Increased clouds will limit highs into the mid to upper 80s over much of SE GA and towards the suwannee valley with low to mid 90s again over the I-95 corridor of NE FL where less cloud cover and lower showers and T'storm coverage expected until late afternoon into the evening hours. Morning lows will be muggier in the low 70s.

Saturday, the cold front will sink into NE FL with uncertainty on whether the cold front will stall or continue moving through NE FL through the afternoon. Will keep isolated to scattered showers in the forecast with a few T'Storms possible over the southern most counties of north central FL. Weak ridging aloft will move in the wake of a departing trough from the mid MS valley into the Mid Atlantic/southern appalachians and allow weak high pressure to shift from the central plains to the TN valley with lower dewpoints in the 50s and west to NW winds along and behind the front which will bring a drop in high temperatures with low 80s over SE GA into interior NE FL ranging into the upper 80s over the St Johns river basin and north central FL. Lows Saturday will be in the low 60s NW of Jacksonville and mid to upper 60s closer to the NE FL coast and north central FL.

Sunday, more uncertainty remains on the evolution of the next upstream mid to upper level trough as it pinwheels from the upper plains into the Ohio Valley. The GFS model want to develop a wave of low pressure along the Gulf coast as the front just to the south quickly lifts north over the area and delivers a swath of heavier showers over the area while the ECMWF delays the formation of a Gulf low until late Sunday and places the swath of showers over the southern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Will limit any coverage of showers and T'storms to areas south of I-10 for now as a compromise. Winds will be light from the WNW. Highs will be similar to Saturday with low 80s over SE GA and mid to upper 80s over much of NE FL. Cooler lows in the upper 50s inland expected with low 60s closer to the coast.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

East Coast sea breeze should push inland past SSI/CRG/SGJ with just VCSH early in the TAF period, while still expecting the need for brief TEMPO MVFR TSRA conditions at the inland TAF sites of JAX/VQQ/GNV generally in the 19-23Z time frame. VFR conds with leftover convective debris clouds after sunset (00Z) with only patchy MVFR fog possible at VQQ around sunrise. Mainly VFR conds expected late in the TAF period with Monday morning diurnal heating with generally SCT clouds in the 1500-2500 ft range becoming briefly BKN/MVFR at times, but likely too early to include any TEMPO groups at this time.

MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

High pressure ridge axis will remain across the local waters early this week before building south of the local waters Tuesday through Thursday with an offshore flow developing. Brief nocturnal surges will develop with offshore wind speeds at 15 to 20 knots and seas 3 to 5 feet during the evening hours, but overall not expecting any chance for Small Craft Advisory headline potential until the next cold frontal passage at the end of the week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents will continue through early this week as local sea breezes dominate the surf zone with breakers generally in the 1-2 ft range.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

With high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic, daily seabreeze circulation pattern will bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the area into Monday. Rest of today, light southerly winds 8-12 mph prevail with Atlantic seabreeze bringing southeasterly winds 10-15 mph behind it. Highest storm chances expected between highway 301 and I-75 where Atlantic and Gulf seabreezes merge from Marion county north to Osceola National Forest.

Monday, the Atlantic seabreeze will make a bit less progress inland with higher storm chances focusing between US-1 and highway 301 in Southeast Georgia south to the Osceola National forest.
Southwest winds prevail Tuesday with drier conditions and only isolated showers/thunderstorms expected with a pinned Atlantic seabreeze east of I-95. Dry conditions expected Wednesday with hotter temperatures into the mid 90s with lower Min RH values, but still above critical values. Increasing transport winds Tuesday will create high dispersions.

CLIMATE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Daily record Maximum Temperatures at the local climate sites for...

Tuesday May 7th
JAX 94/1977
CRG 94/1977
GNV 96/1955
AMG 93/1962

Wednesday May 8th
JAX 96/1959
CRG 93/1977
GNV 97/1955
AMG 95/1962

Thursday May 9th
JAX 96/1962
CRG 93/2008
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/1962

Friday May 10th
JAX 94/2017
CRG 95/2003
GNV 95/2011
AMG 95/2011

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 65 89 67 91 / 20 60 20 10 SSI 71 83 70 86 / 10 40 20 10 JAX 68 88 67 91 / 10 40 20 10 SGJ 68 86 68 89 / 20 30 10 10 GNV 66 89 65 91 / 40 50 10 20 OCF 67 89 67 91 / 40 30 0 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BKBF1 9 mi49 min ESE 17G21 79°F 30.02
JXUF1 20 mi49 min 82°F
NFDF1 23 mi49 min E 12G14 80°F 30.0476°F
DMSF1 24 mi49 min 79°F
BLIF1 25 mi49 min ESE 11G15 80°F 30.0672°F
LTJF1 27 mi49 min 78°F 73°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 28 mi49 min SE 8.9G14 79°F 78°F30.06
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 30 mi67 min SE 15G16 76°F 78°F30.0576°F
41117 37 mi41 min 76°F3 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 40 mi82 min SE 8.9 79°F 30.0970°F
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 44 mi49 min ESE 5.1G11 81°F 78°F30.04


Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KNIP JACKSONVILLE NAS (TOWERS FLD),FL 11 sm13 minSE 1310 smMostly Cloudy82°F70°F66%30.03
KVQQ CECIL,FL 12 sm16 minSE 0510 smMostly Cloudy Lt Rain 88°F61°F40%30.02
KHEG HERLONG RECREATIONAL,FL 14 sm11 minESE 15G2010 smClear84°F68°F58%30.05
KCRG JACKSONVILLE EXECUTIVE AT CRAIG,FL 22 sm13 minSSE 11G1610 smClear82°F70°F66%30.04
KSGJ NORTHEAST FLORIDA RGNL,FL 24 sm10 minS 1010 smClear81°F72°F74%30.06
Link to 5 minute data for KVQQ


Wind History from VQQ
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida
   
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Black Creek
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Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:47 AM EDT     4.80 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:00 AM EDT     5.60 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:56 PM EDT     4.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:38 PM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Black Creek, S.C.L. RR. bridge, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
5.6
1
am
5.4
2
am
5.2
3
am
5
4
am
4.9
5
am
4.8
6
am
4.8
7
am
4.9
8
am
5.2
9
am
5.4
10
am
5.6
11
am
5.6
12
pm
5.6
1
pm
5.4
2
pm
5.2
3
pm
5
4
pm
4.9
5
pm
4.8
6
pm
4.8
7
pm
4.8
8
pm
5.1
9
pm
5.4
10
pm
5.6
11
pm
5.7



Tide / Current for Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida
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Orange Park
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:43 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:56 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:02 PM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:51 PM EDT     0.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida, Tide feet
12
am
0.2
1
am
-0
2
am
-0.2
3
am
-0.3
4
am
-0.4
5
am
-0.4
6
am
-0.3
7
am
-0
8
am
0.2
9
am
0.3
10
am
0.4
11
am
0.4
12
pm
0.2
1
pm
0
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
-0.3
4
pm
-0.4
5
pm
-0.5
6
pm
-0.4
7
pm
-0.2
8
pm
0.1
9
pm
0.3
10
pm
0.5
11
pm
0.5




Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of southeast   
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Jacksonville, FL,



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