Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asbury Lake, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Main Highlights through Tonight:

- Locally Heavy rainfall and flooding Possible, mainly west of the I- 75 corridor (Flood Watch)

- Scattered to Numerous Storms elsewhere with isolated strong storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours as well

Frontal boundary remains stalled just NW of the region across Central Georgia, along with an elongated mid level shortwave aloft over the same area. This will continue the moist SW steering flow off the NE Gulf at the surface, with PWATs currently at 2.2 to 2.4 inches across all of NE FL/SE GA. Numerous to widespread showers and storms with heavy rainfall will be possible area-wide this afternoon and evening, but will continue the Flood Watch along the I-75 corridor due to the wetter soil conditions there from weekend heavy rainfall amounts. The developing cut-off low pressure system over Central GA at the surface and aloft will pinwheel energy through the local NE FL/SE GA this afternoon/evening before a drier slot of air mass aloft, dropping the PWATs to below 2 inches after sunset later tonight. This will continue to rotate scattered to numerous showers and storms across the region, some of which may be strongest across inland SE GA with gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which will continue an isolated flash flood threat through at least sunset.
Temps will remain slightly below normal levels this afternoon, with highs still only in the mid/upper 80s for most locations. Due to the loss of heating to tonight, along with the drier air mass aloft, should see a decrease in convection after sunset, with scattered showers and isolated storms until midnight, then drier conditions for most locations during the overnight hours, before a return to low level convergence in the SW flow along the NE Gulf Coast with some scattered showers and isolated storms with heavy rainfall potential pushing back into the GNV/OCF metro areas towards morning and if the Hi-Res models continue to show this possibility, the Flood Watch timing may need to be extended through the overnight hours. Overnight lows falling into the lower 70s inland and middle o upper 70s along the Atlantic Coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards

- Temperatures begin to warm into midweek.

A stalled frontal boundary will be draped across central GA on Tuesday, as southwesterly flow continues on Tuesday. By midweek, high pressure begins to build over the area from the Atlantic, leading to a more southerly-southeasterly flow to develop which would support the inland push of the Atlantic and Gulf breezes Wednesday afternoon.

Could see a bit of patchy fog over locations which received a good amount of rainfall on Monday on Tuesday morning with any fog not lingering much past sunrise. Compared to the past weekend, a drier airmass will filter over the area. With relatively lower PWATs over SE GA, only scattered chances of showers and storms is expected over SE GA on Tuesday and Wednesday. With a bit more moisture aloft, scattered to numerous chances of showers and storms over north central FL on Tuesday. By Wednesday, high pressure builds over the area leading to a south-southeast flow, which should allow for the inland push of both the Atlantic and Gulf breezes. Scattered chances of showers and storms over the area on Wednesday. By the afternoon hours greater convective coverage is expected to develop over north central FL as the sea breezes begin to merge near US-301.

With lower coverage of showers heading into midweek, highs are expected to return to the lower to mid 90s for most locations with upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s could bring near heat advisory criteria for some locations in NE FL by midweek.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily chances for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with wind gusts and heavy rainfall the greatest hazards - Onshore flow will direct showers and storms from east to west.

Onshore flow will become well established past midweek as a ridge of high pressure asserts itself over the southeastern US. With easterly flow in place, the Atlantic sea breeze will be push well inland each afternoon. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will continue each day, with diurnal heating and sea breeze interactions driving development of convective activity from east to west. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s this period, with trends suggesting a bit warmer temperatures by Sunday into the mid 90s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
First round of convection early this afternoon will feature mostly stratiform rainfall with MVFR CIGS, before shortwave trough aloft swings through the local NE FL/SE GA terminals with TSRA activity along with TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBYS and gusty winds to 25-30 knots, mainly in the 19-23Z time frame, before convection chances lower after sunset. Gusty SW winds 10-13G15-20 knots this afternoon will also weaken to less than 8 knots after sunset as well. Mostly VFR conds overnight with mid/high clouds except for re-development of lower MVFR CIGS towards morning at all terminals, and even some IFR CIGS returning to GNV/VQQ by sunrise. Early morning convection looks to return to GNV by the 12-14Z time frame as well on Tuesday and linger through the morning hours.

MARINE

Frontal boundary will remain stalled north of the waters through Tuesday. Offshore flow at Exercise Caution levels this afternoon and evening will weaken later tonight. High pressure ridge will build north of the waters by Wednesday with a return to a Southeast onshore flow that will become Easterly by Friday.

Rip Currents: Low risk to begin the week in offshore flow with surf/breakers 1-2 feet, but a wind shift to a more southeast/onshore flow along with some increase in long period swells will build surf/breakers to 2-3 feet by mid-week with a Moderate rip current risk expected and potentially surf/breakers of 3-4 feet by Friday into the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER
Main Highlights This Period:

- Daily thunderstorm chances, with isolated strong to severe storms

Deep tropical moisture combined with persistent southwesterly flow will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms continuing on Tuesday, all day. Outside of convection on Tuesday, southwesterly winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are expected across northeast Florida, while lighter winds prevail across southeast Georgia. Good dispersions are expected on Tuesday, with fair to good values for the rest of the work-week. Overall, convection returns to a more diurnal nature Wednesday onward, with storms primarily in the afternoons and evenings. By the end of the week, surface winds will be easterly, bringing some coastal morning showers onshore.

Fog Potential: Significant fog development is not anticipated, however patchy fog is possible early Tuesday morning near locations that received a lot of rainfall today. Fire weather operations should anticipate sudden and erratic wind shifts, strong outflow winds, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning in and near thunderstorms.

EQUIPMENT

KVAX (Moody AFB) radar down UFN. Techs have been notified.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 71 91 72 91 / 50 40 20 40 SSI 76 90 77 90 / 30 30 20 20 JAX 73 92 73 91 / 30 40 20 40 SGJ 74 91 74 90 / 30 40 20 30 GNV 72 91 71 91 / 30 40 10 50 OCF 72 91 73 91 / 50 50 10 60

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-035-236-340- 522.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.