Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Asbury Lake, FL

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
- Dangerous Wildfire Weather Conditions through this evening across Inland Northeast FL - Critically low humidity over Southeast GA

High pressure ridging extends from the Blue Ridge mountains of northern VA south to southwest along the foothills of appalachian mountains into central AL early this morning with dry subsident airmass in place and strong cool air advection and clear skies allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 40s west of I-95 and the St Johns river with 50s at the coast where weak onshore flow is beginning to shift more west to northwesterly, but winds are calm inland.

Today, very dry conditions continue as the high remains over the region. Strong heating is expected under initially sunny skies and along with the weak pressure gradient pattern will create breezy conditions at the coast late this morning as the Atlantic seabreeze develops and moves onshore, then pushes well inland bringing breezy easterly winds 12-18 mph gusting to 25 mph westward to highway 301 by midday to early afternoon and along I-10 into the Suwannee Valley by mid afternoon, with lighter winds across inland SE GA 6-12 mph with gusts to 15 mph, but a bit higher along the SE GA coast as the seabreeze first moves onshore 10-15 mph gusts 25 mph.

Temperatures will warm quickly away from the coast into the low to mid 80s by the midday to early afternoon hours, effectively drying out low level moisture inland. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for these drier locations from 10AM until 8PM this evening where the combination of very dry humidity levels below 30 percent and elevated winds from the seabreeze will lead to dangerous wildfire conditions today for inland NE FL locations west of the St Johns river and also west of US-17 north of Jacksonville. Winds will decrease and humidity levels will recover at 8PM.

Tonight, low level ridging will be directly over southern GA and while some increase in thin high level cirrus clouds will stream over the area downstream of a approaching shortwave, decoupling winds inland will allow for good radiational cooling to below normal temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees west of I-95, but warming to the upper 50s along the immediate coast where light onshore winds will persist.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
Main Highlights This Period:

- Critically low minimum humidity values for inland SE GA

High pressure remains over the area through midweek, with dry conditions continuing during the forecast period and critically dry conditions remaining across inland locations of SE GA. Onshore flow will continue from the east-southeast, which will lead to breezy conditions along the coast, while winds over inland locations will be lighter than the past couple of days, with the exception during the afternoon hours as the Atlantic sea breeze moves. The continued onshore flow will bring some low-level moisture, across the coast and towards the St Johns River basin.

A warming trend will begin to develop past midweek with the high pressure overhead. With the onshore flow, daytime highs along the coast expected in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Away from the coast daytime highs will be in the lower/mid 80s Wednesday, but will see warmer temperatures on Thursday as highs range in the mid to upper 80s. Overnight Lows will be in the 50s, with coastal locations in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Main Highlights This Period:

-Dry conditions persist through work week -Showers and isolated storms possible Saturday and Sunday -Warming Trend into the weekend.

High pressure continues to shift offshore through the end of the week into the weekend. Dry conditions continue on Friday, but an approaching front remaining north of the area this weekend may bring enough moisture into the area to bring some showers and isolated storms primarily along inland locations of SE GA Saturday afternoon and then towards the coast by the evening hours. Sunday, scattered chances spread to most of the area, will lowering chances by Monday.

Warmer temperature at the start of the period as the high pressure shifts offshore. Warmest temperatures for the period on Saturday, with above average temperatures reaching into the lower 90s.
Temperatures trend a bit cooler on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through the entire 06Z TAF period. The Atlantic seabreeze will move onshore 16-17 at SSI and SGJ and push through the Duval county terminals 17-19Z and GNV by 20Z with breezy easterly winds 12-15 knots gusting to around 18-23 knots. Winds will subside by around 00Z with cirrus clouds increasing aloft.

MARINE

Winds and waves subside gradually tonight with exercise caution over the offshore Florida waters through late morning as high pressure builds across the area waters today. Easterly winds Today will return Wednesday as high pressure remains over the waters with southerly winds overnight due to the land breeze. Winds will turn more southeasterly Thursday into Friday during the daytime's seabreeze circulation with southerly winds prevailing ahead of a cold front Saturday and southwesterly on Sunday as the front begins to stall just north of the waters. The front will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the waters this weekend.

Rip Currents and Surf:

High risk of rip currents today with elevated onshore winds from the northeast and surf breakers up to 4-6 feet. A moderate to high risk is anticipated for Tuesday with easterly onshore flow.

FIRE WEATHER
CRITICALLY LOW MINRH VALUES OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND - Much Of Inland Northeast Florida Through Midweek

- Areas To Widespread High Daytime Dispersions Through Thursday

Dry and breezy conditions will again be present Today across inland northeast FL, bringing Red Flag conditions once again for these locations, with elevated fire concerns across southeast Georgia for the continued dry conditions.

The dry conditions will persist through the week as critical MinRH values over inland Southeast GA and portions of northeast FL each day this week. High pressure over the area will gradually move east of the area from Thursday into Friday. This will lead to the onshore flow to lessen midweek, but still allow for the daily inland push of the Atlantic seabreeze. Areas to widespread high daytime dispersions are expected daily into at least Thursday due to high mixing heights and moderate transport wind speeds.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: There will be potential for Localized "superfog" near the vicinity of any smoke from ongoing wildfires

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 83 50 83 55 / 0 0 0 0 SSI 78 59 77 62 / 0 0 0 0 JAX 83 52 82 58 / 0 0 0 0 SGJ 79 58 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 GNV 86 51 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 85 52 83 58 / 0 0 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ023-024-030-031-035-132-136-137-140-225- 232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.
High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.