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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 953 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots, becoming north 20 to 25 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters very rough. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday night through Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters rough.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Protected waters rough.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 953 Pm Est Fri Dec 8 2023
Synopsis..
moderate southeast flow will continue through Saturday night or Sunday morning on the periphery of high pressure centered west of bermuda. A strong cold front will blast across the waters on Sunday, followed by a quick shift to strong or near-gale northwest winds which will peak on Sunday night. Gale headlines may eventually be needed. Winds will gradually decrease on Monday, then clock around on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure passes by to the north.

FXUS62 KTAE 090531 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1231 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

UPDATE
Issued at 954 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

The forecast is right on track, so no updates needed this evening.

NEAR TERM
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

A longwave upper trough will progress east across the central US, deepening and becoming more compact as it digs into the southern plains before moving toward the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure just off the FL east coast will continue sliding farther east into the Atlantic with winds taking on a more southerly component, increasing dewpoints across the area into the mid-upper 60s by late tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will increase into the mid to upper 70s for areas east of the Apalachicola and Flint River basins with areas west in the low to mid 70s as persistent cloud cover spreads over the western zones.

In the late morning hours, hi-res guidance appears to be hinting at a confluence band setting up over our western FL Panhandle counties which extends through our SE Alabama counties. Despite relatively weak forcing aloft, this may be enough to spark some showers over the area as inland dewpoints rapidly increase. In addition, CAPE should raise to around 250-500J/kg across the aforementioned area.
Bulk shear values ranging from 20-40kts should help these storms maintain themselves for a while, perhaps producing lightning and capable of a few damaging wind gusts if they can become surface based despite marginal CAPE profiles and an evident marine layer.

Closer to the evening, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across our western zones ahead of an incoming cold front associated with a surface low occluding to the northeast over the Great Lakes. With this cold front will come a line of strong to possibly severe storms, though it will arrive just after the near term portion of this forecast as discussed below.

SHORT TERM
(Saturday Night through Sunday Night)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

In the mid-levels, a deepening longwave trough moves through on Sunday with two pieces of energy bifurcating across the region.
An associated cold front is poised to sweep across the region late in the day. In advance, expect multiple lines/clusters of showers with embedded thunderstorms. The storm environment is characterized by High Shear Low Cape (HSLC). Storms could begin as early as late Saturday night in Southeast Alabama and the western FL Panhandle, but are more likely early Sunday morning, then moving eastward across Southwest Georgia and the FL Big Bend into the evening hours. Where storms can become surface based, the main threat would be isolated damaging winds, but any QLCS features could lead to a brief tornado. SPC has the entire tri-state region in a marginal risk for severe thunder- storms. There are hydro concerns as well, and that is further discussed in the Hydrology section at the end of this product.

LONG TERM
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Dry weather is expected through the period, with a low potential for a few showers to work into coastal areas late in the week as low pressure tries to develop in the gulf. Otherwise, strong high pressure should dominate with easterly flow. After chilly weather Monday and Tuesday, temperatures moderate closer to seasonal levels.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at most TAF sites through the TAF period with KECP and KDHN the two exceptions later Saturday morning. That is when the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms goes up for KECP and KDHN, so included some PROB30 groups to account for that chance and to lower ceilings to MVFR conditions. Otherwise, expect a light southeasterly breeze to increase and turn a little more southerly throughout the day at all aerodromes. Models are also hinting at the potential for some fog, especially for KECP and KTLH very late in the TAF period.
While amendments aren't expected to be needed, one may be possible for KECP depending on if any showers develop in the Gulf of Mexico and move ashore in the next couple of hours.



MARINE
Issued at 954 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

Buoy 42036 is observing southeast winds of 16 knots and 4-foot seas.

From CWF synopsis...Moderate southeast flow will continue through Saturday night or Sunday morning on the periphery of high pressure centered west of Bermuda. A strong cold front will blast across the waters on Sunday, followed by a quick shift to strong or near- gale northwest winds which will peak on Sunday night.
Gale headlines may eventually be needed. Winds will gradually decrease on Monday, then clock around on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure passes by to the north.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

There are low fire weather concerns through this forecast period as a cold front will impact the area this weekend resulting in a wetting rain areawide. Beginning tomorrow, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected before a line of thunderstorms moves through the area on Sunday. A drier trend will begin on Monday with fair dispersions expected areawide.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 323 PM EST Fri Dec 8 2023

With the Aucilla River falling below flood stage this morning, there are no longer any river flood warnings in effect. Our attention turns to another weekend storm with the potential for heavy rainfall on Saturday and Sunday. WPC has placed Southeast Alabama and the FL Panhandle in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain Saturday. The Marginal Risk shifts eastward on Sunday into the FL Big Bend and Southwest Georgia. There is uncertainty in where the higher rainfall axes will setup. The area of most concern is closer to the gulf coast over the FL counties, especially the panhandle, and possibly extending northward into Southeast Alabama - this is where bands with high rainfall rates have the potential to move inland and train over the same areas - some of the ensembles are showing the potential for localized amounts in excess of 5 to 6 inches. This could result in isolated flash flooding. Otherwise, widespread rainfall of 1 to 3 inches is expected across the tri-state region.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 64 69 38 / 20 30 80 20 Panama City 73 65 69 38 / 60 60 80 10 Dothan 73 64 67 33 / 70 70 80 10 Albany 74 62 68 35 / 30 50 80 20 Valdosta 77 63 70 37 / 10 30 90 30 Cross City 79 63 73 39 / 0 10 90 40 Apalachicola 70 67 69 40 / 30 50 90 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:00 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:01 AM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:24 AM EST     2.44 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:46 PM EST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:49 PM EST     2.73 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aucilla River entrance, Florida, Tide feet

St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:56 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:20 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:21 AM EST     2.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:38 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:41 PM EST     1.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:46 PM EST     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marks River Entrance, Florida, Tide feet

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