Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Marks, FL

SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 326 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Showers will exit portions of Southwest GA and the FL Big Bend Monday night as high pressure settles north of the region thru Thursday. While this may imply fair weather, we will have to keep an eye on a southern stream system over the gulf. Some of the deterministic solutions bring precip into portions of the region Wed night into Thursday night, but this is an unlikely scenario with the dry air in place, with ensembles showing a near NIL probability of precipitation at this time. Otherwise, an increase in clouds on Tue and Wed as mid and high-level moisture increases, with no precipitation during this period.
Expect chilly weather through Friday morning with below normal temperatures, as highs stay mainly in the 50s with lows from the mid-20s to mid-30s away from the coast.

The next storm system approaches on Saturday into next weekend.
The Climate Prediction Center has indicated a risk for heavy rain next weekend (Jan 18-19) and SPC mentioned that outlook probabilities may be necessary if forecast confidence increases.
The heavy rain potential will be more dependent on the speed of the system as moisture return is not that impressive in the ensembles. While shear will be high as is often the case this time of year, any severe weather potential would be contingent on instability. Much colder weather is possible the following week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Ceilings quickly lower this evening as rain begins to move in from the west after 03z. MVFR/IFR conditions quickly develop as rain overspreads western terminals of TLH, ECP, DHN after 06z. Further reductions occur during sunrise to widespread IFR and isolated areas of LIFR as heavier rain moves in. Conditions will remain at IFR/LIFR levels through at least 18z across most terminals before rain begins to move out across western terminals. Despite the rain moving out, IFR ceilings look to remain in place through the TAF period with improvements not likely until after 00z Tuesday.

MARINE
Issued at 326 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

A Gulf Low moves near the waters on Monday leading to advisory- level northeast winds west of the Ochlockonee River into Tuesday.
In addition, seas will peak between 5 and 8 feet for the waters west of Apalachicola late Monday into Monday night. Winds will clock around to the north on Tuesday and Tuesday night, with elevated winds and seas through at least Wednesday. More tranquil boating conditions are possible on Thursday and Friday as high pressure settles into the waters.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 326 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

Rain is expected to begin during the overnight hours early Monday morning in our westernmost districts, then spreading east through the day. Fog will likely develop within the rain showers after daybreak Monday. Dispersions will be low through the afternoon with northerly/northeasterly transport winds around 10-15 mph.
Lightning/thunder is not anticipated. Dispersions improve for Tuesday afternoon as transport winds will be northerly around 15 mph and mixing heights around 2.4 kft by Wednesday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 326 PM EST Sun Jan 12 2025

There are a couple opportunities for precipitation - the first on Monday and then again on Saturday into next weekend. Rainfall on Monday should generally be around one inch near the Emerald Coast and tapering off to less than a half of an inch on our northeast GA counties. There is the potential for heavy rainfall next weekend, and we will continue to monitor the trends in guidance.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 41 48 37 55 / 70 90 20 0 Panama City 43 52 38 57 / 90 90 10 0 Dothan 40 48 31 53 / 90 90 10 0 Albany 37 47 30 54 / 70 90 10 0 Valdosta 40 48 35 56 / 60 80 20 0 Cross City 41 52 40 60 / 20 70 50 0 Apalachicola 45 53 40 57 / 70 80 20 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Monday for FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon CST Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.