Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Marks, FL
May 15, 2024 5:35 AM EDT (09:35 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:41 AM Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 12:29 PM Moonset 1:30 AM |
GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 405 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024 /305 Am Cdt Wed May 15 2024/
Today - West winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots this afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Wave detail:southwest 5 feet at 7 seconds and west 1 foot at 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms early this morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon.
Tonight - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds and west 2 feet at 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: south 3 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wave detail: south 4 feet at 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet, occasionally to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning.
Sunday night - West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 405 Am Edt Wed May 15 2024
Synopsis -
elevated seas continue through the rest of today. Showers and Thunderstorms are possible this morning, particularly for the eastern offshore waters, but rain chances will decrease through the day as a cold front makes its way through our waters today. Calmer conditions can be expected for Thursday with generally westerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms return by Friday into the weekend with rising seas and, at least, cautionary-level winds.
elevated seas continue through the rest of today. Showers and Thunderstorms are possible this morning, particularly for the eastern offshore waters, but rain chances will decrease through the day as a cold front makes its way through our waters today. Calmer conditions can be expected for Thursday with generally westerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms return by Friday into the weekend with rising seas and, at least, cautionary-level winds.
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
HIDE HelpNOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS62 KTAE 150843 CCA AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 443 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching 90 in some areas.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the short term will be in the low 70s.
The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.
The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal (1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high with most of the area at or above 80% chances for rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday's severe potential will depend on the system's behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it's all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to be north of I-10.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
There were some minor changes to the TAFs with this update as stratus has started forming along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Opted to hint or bring in MVFR cigs to most TAF sites, with the possibility of IFR cigs being possible. The other area that was updated was the removal of VCTS from KTLH and KVLD as confidence was quite low in that happening this morning.
Especially since some of the guidance has trended that activity farther south. An area to keep an eye on is the convection just to our north along the I-65 and I-85 corridor over AL. If this holds we may need to add VCTS or TS to KDHN and perhaps KABY over the next few hours. Later this morning after sunrise, any cig restrictions that have formed should improve to VFR and then hold through the day.
MARINE
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Elevated seas continue through the rest of today. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning, particularly for the eastern offshore waters, but rain chances will decrease through the day as a cold front makes its way through our waters today.
Calmer conditions can be expected for Thursday with generally westerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms return by Friday into the weekend with rising seas and, at least, cautionary- level winds.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 66 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 84 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 86 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 66 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 84 66 88 66 / 70 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 71 85 73 / 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 443 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY
NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Dry weather is generally expected today, with a cold front slowly moving across the region. This could spur a few showers and thunderstorms along it, though confidence was too low to add PoP anywhere outside of the eastern FL Big Bend. Outside of that, look for mainly clear skies today with highs in the mid to upper 80s for SE AL, SW GA, and the W FL Panhandle. The FL Big Bend should be a touch warmer with highs in the upper 80s, perhaps approaching 90 in some areas.
SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The cold front would have completed its passage and upper level ridging will begin to build in for Thursday. Temperatures will still be warm with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, yet we should be able to enjoy sunny skies. However, the ridge will quickly pass to the east, ahead of an upper level trough with an associated cold front. Ahead of this upcoming front, we can expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the day on Friday.
Moisture return with surface southerly flow will increase PoPs to range between 50%- 70% for the Tri-state region, and will gradually increase as the system moves east into the start of the long term. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday with highs in the upper 80s to around 90. Overnight lows during the short term will be in the low 70s.
The chances for rain and thunderstorms on Friday (Day 3 outlook)
has prompted the WPC to highlight areas along the Chattahoochee River and west in a Slight (2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall.
Areas to the east, excluding the Big Bend, are in a Marginal (1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall. The outlook is for the convection that is expected in the afternoon hours and will continue through the night. The SPC has highlighted areas west of the Apalachicola River in a Marginal (1 of 5) risk for severe weather. This will be an evolving system throughout the day. Check back for more details regarding the severe wx and heavy rain potentials.
The showers and thunderstorms continue into Saturday. A Marginal (1 of 4) risk covers the entire CWA for Saturday. PoPs are high with most of the area at or above 80% chances for rain/thunderstorms. There is a continuation for severe storms into Saturday, although confidence is medium at this time. Saturday's severe potential will depend on the system's behavior from Friday.
Outside of storms, we may have gusty winds on Saturday. When it's all said and done, the forecast is between 1-3" of rain with isolated higher amounts. Most of the heavy rainfall is forecast to be north of I-10.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
The front will be making its passage Sunday, clearing out the remaining showers. This will make way for upper level ridging to build and finally clear out the clouds and rain for the remainder of the long term period.
Temperatures will remain warm in the low 90s for the afternoon highs, and overnight lows will be in the upper 60s. Rain chances are low for the long term. We could expect afternoon seabreeze convection yet PoPs are generally less than 15%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
There were some minor changes to the TAFs with this update as stratus has started forming along and west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. Opted to hint or bring in MVFR cigs to most TAF sites, with the possibility of IFR cigs being possible. The other area that was updated was the removal of VCTS from KTLH and KVLD as confidence was quite low in that happening this morning.
Especially since some of the guidance has trended that activity farther south. An area to keep an eye on is the convection just to our north along the I-65 and I-85 corridor over AL. If this holds we may need to add VCTS or TS to KDHN and perhaps KABY over the next few hours. Later this morning after sunrise, any cig restrictions that have formed should improve to VFR and then hold through the day.
MARINE
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Elevated seas continue through the rest of today. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning, particularly for the eastern offshore waters, but rain chances will decrease through the day as a cold front makes its way through our waters today.
Calmer conditions can be expected for Thursday with generally westerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet. Showers and thunderstorms return by Friday into the weekend with rising seas and, at least, cautionary- level winds.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
Drier weather will mainly prevail today, though some showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the SE FL Big Bend. Dry weather is expected to prevail into Thursday as well, with the main fire weather concerns these first two days being high dispersions. Come Friday, another change in the weather pattern is forecast.
Showers and thunderstorms return, though ahead of it we may see high dispersions in FL. Wet weather continues into Saturday.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 406 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting today, then falling into action stage by Friday. Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
The next round of showers and thunderstorms has the WPC highlighting the region in a Slight (2 of 4) Risk for excessive rainfall for Friday in our northwestern counties, and a Marginal risk for the rest of the CWA, excluding the southeast Big Bend. On Saturday, the entire region is highlighted in a Marginal Risk. An upgrade for Saturday to a Slight risk could be possible. Through the weekend, a forecast of 2-3" is possible with isolated higher amounts. Potential flash flooding will be possible, and we will monitor for ongoing and future riverine flooding.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 89 66 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Panama City 84 69 86 72 / 0 0 0 10 Dothan 86 63 89 68 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 86 63 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 87 66 89 67 / 10 0 0 0 Cross City 84 66 88 66 / 70 0 0 0 Apalachicola 84 71 85 73 / 20 0 0 10
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL | 15 mi | 102 min | WSW 8.9G | 77°F | 56 ft | 29.79 | 72°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KFPY PERRYFOLEY,FL | 22 sm | 20 min | SW 04 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 75°F | 70°F | 83% | 29.83 |
Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:51 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:21 PM EDT 1.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:51 AM EDT 0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:59 AM EDT 2.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:21 PM EDT 1.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:39 PM EDT 2.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:22 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Aucilla River entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.8 |
| 5 am |
| 1.1 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 1.8 |
| 8 am |
| 2.1 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 2.3 |
| 11 am |
| 2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 1 pm |
| 2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.5 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 2 |
St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT 0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT 2.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT 2.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:30 AM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 02:46 AM EDT 0.75 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EDT First Quarter
Wed -- 09:56 AM EDT 2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:29 PM EDT Moonrise
Wed -- 02:16 PM EDT 2.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:36 PM EDT 2.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
St. Marks River Entrance, Florida, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.3 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1.2 |
| 6 am |
| 1.5 |
| 7 am |
| 1.9 |
| 8 am |
| 2.3 |
| 9 am |
| 2.5 |
| 10 am |
| 2.5 |
| 11 am |
| 2.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 2.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.2 |
Tallahassee, FL,
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