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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 337 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Sunday morning...
.small craft exercise caution in effect Sunday afternoon...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late this morning and early afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early.
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Lake waters very rough. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters very rough.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters choppy.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Lake waters light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Tuesday night..East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 337 Am Cst Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
moderate onshore winds will continue through this evening. Tonight, a strong cold front will move through the region bring widespread showers and Thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to water lightning. The main marine concern will be after the frontal passage from late tonight through tomorrow as strong north winds and building seas develop in its wake. Sustained winds near 25-35 kts with gusts near 30-40 kts are expected across the offshore waters, with slightly lower values for the coastal lakes and bays. With the strong offshore flow, water will be push away from the coast and low-water conditions for coastal lakes and bays will be possible. Conditions will begin to improve tomorrow night as high pressure builds in behind the front with rapidly decreasing winds and lowering seas expected as we head into the work week.

FXUS64 KLCH 091140 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 540 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Saturday morning surface analysis shows a cold front draped from southern Missouri across north Texas, with an area of low pressure situated along the front near the DFW region. Aloft, a large longwave trough dominates the majority of the country, currently extending from Minnesota to the Rio Grande Valley. Surface obs across the region this morning show a very warm and moist airmass overhead, with both temperatures and dewpoints in the 60s area- wide.

The central CONUS mid/upper level trough will deepen and progress eastward today. As it does so it will give the cold front to our north a push south, with the front expected to make its way through the forecast area this evening/tonight. Ahead of this front, onshore flow will continue to advect moisture inland with dewpoints forecasted to remain in the 60s to low 70s areawide today.
By this afternoon, increasing lift/instability associated with the approaching front should begin to tap into the ample moisture overhead to produce at least some isolated to scattered shower activity in its advance. Then as the front draws closer this evening into tonight convection should begin to increase in both coverage and intensity. Along the boundary some strong storms will be possible, with a Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of severe weather outlined for our northern most CENLA parishes and a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) elsewhere. The main threat with these storms will be damaging wind gusts however, some hail and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out particularly for the Slight Risk area.

Following the frontal passage tonight convection with come to an end and strong north winds will develop advecting a much colder and drier airmass into the region for the second half of the weekend. Lows will fall into the 40s tomorrow morning, while strong CAA will keep afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s areawide amid ample sunshine. Surface high pressure will then settle overhead tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, allowing winds to relax. This will provide ideal radiational cooling conditions for Sun night/Mon morning, with lows expected to fall into the 28-32 degree range for much of the region north of I-10, with lows in the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. High pressure overhead will then provide a pleasant and cool start to the work week, with sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees expected areawide for Monday.

17

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Tuesday through Thursday, expect easterly/northeasterly flow as strong sfc high pressure remains entrenched across the Ohio Valley.
This will also help keep plenty of clouds around and daytime highs generally in the lower and middle 60s. Sfc winds may also be breezy at times due to the pressure gradient across the region.

Late week and into the weekend, confidence is increasing of a more active weather pattern across the Gulf Coast. However confidence is low in details, as a closed low meanders east/northeast from the desert SW. This may eventually result in cyclogenesis across the western gulf with increasing precip chances. It will all be dependent on how the closed low/trof ejects from the desert SW and interaction with gulf moisture. We will keep an eye on this as it comes into better focus into next week.

78

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Now through this evening, mainly VFR with occasional MVFR ceilings and breezy S to SW winds will continue. Occasional gusts are expected areawide throughout the day, especially near any convection. Showers should remain isolated through the majority of the day, before increasing in coverage later this afternoon into tonight as a cold front moves through the region. With the passage of the front more widespread showers along with some thunderstorms are expected. Winds will shift NW to N after frontal passage and become strong and very gusty through the remainder of the forecast period. Ceilings should largely maintain VFR however, like today occasional pockets of MVFR are possible overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Moderate onshore winds will continue through this evening.
Tonight, a strong cold front will move through the region bring widespread showers and thunderstorms along with the possibility for severe wind gusts and frequent cloud to water lightning. The main marine concern will be after the frontal passage from late tonight through tomorrow as strong north winds and building seas develop in its wake. Sustained winds near 25-35 kts with gusts near 30-40 kts are expected across the offshore waters, with slightly lower values for the coastal lakes and bays. Conditions will begin to improve tomorrow night as high pressure builds in behind the front with rapidly decreasing winds and lowering seas expected as we head into the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 79 42 56 28 / 60 70 0 0 LCH 77 46 58 33 / 50 60 0 0 LFT 79 49 57 33 / 50 80 0 0 BPT 79 46 59 35 / 30 50 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for GMZ430-432-435-436.

Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM CST Sunday for GMZ450-452- 455-470-472-475.

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Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:55 AM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:49 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 03:12 PM CST     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:22 PM CST     0.99 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:40 PM CST     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:38 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM CST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:47 PM CST     1.39 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:49 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:16 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:42 PM CST     1.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:47 PM CST     1.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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