Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 2:52 PM   Moonset 2:32 AM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 430 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Today - Northeast winds around 5 knots, becoming south late. Lake waters smooth. Patchy fog, possibly dense, early this morning.Tonight - South winds around 5 knots in the evening, becoming light and variable. Lake waters smooth. Sunday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast around 5 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters smooth. Sunday night - South winds around 5 knots. Lake waters smooth. Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - South winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.

GMZ400 430 Am Cdt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis - Widespread showers and Thunderstorms over the bays and adjacent coastal waters east of cameron associated with a surface boundary will continue through this morning before moving east of the region. Thereafter, light to moderate winds and slight seas along with no rain are expected through the period as high pressure prevails.

FXUS64 KLCH 181200 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 700 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Early morning sfc analysis shows a weak cold front extending from an area of low pressure over far srn MS swwd across sern LA and into our far ern coastal waters. Water vapor imagery shows a significant shortwave approaching the forecast area from the Ozarks/ern TX.
Combined with good moisture over the region (00z KLCH sounding showed a low-level mean RH of 80 percent and a PWAT of 1.63 inches while KLIX raob showed 82 percent/1.85 inches), local 88Ds were showing widespread convection over coastal swrn LA/all of s-cntl LA, plus the adjoining coastal water...some of the activity over the Gulf was rather hefty with large hail possibly falling.
Meanwhile, the other problem child over the forecast area was patchy dense fog developing.

In the near term, have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the wrn 2/3 of the forecast area as observations on the past hour have shown an increase in the number of sites seeing lower visibilities, or at least a downward trend. The fog should burn off after sunrise, with an expiration time for the advisory of 15z.

This morning should see the last of the rain for a while. Ongoing activity is expected to continue pushing ewd as the mid-level shortwave shifts into the forecast area and the sfc front further departs. For now, POP grids show decreasing rain chances over the far sern zones for the first couple hours after sunrise. Thereafter, skies should begin clearing as good dry air aloft begins encroaching. Despite being on the back side of a cool front, it won't really be cool today with highs generally in the upper 80s (about normal for mid-May).

Moving forward, the remainder of the sho658rt term continues to look dry as ridging aloft builds over the region. Guidance isn't very bullish on fog development tonight, which is reflected in the grids/zones at this time...suspect that the combo of clear skies/calm winds with lingering boundary layer moisture will spell at least some patchy fog development prior to sunrise Sunday.
Look for highs back in the lower 90s for most of the area tomorrow and Monday.

25

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

The bulk of the long term continues to look dry as the ridging aloft lingers into mid-week. We do begin to see a little bit of a pattern change by late Wednesday though as a nrn stream shortwave begins breaking down the ridge/nudging it ewd. Meanwhile, an associated sfc front is progged to drift swd into nrn LA before stalling. As a series of disturbances swing by to our north, we should see some convection begin encroaching on our nrn zones by Thursday, although rain chances remain rather small at this time.

High temps generally hold around 90 degrees through the long term.
Lows are progged to slowly inch upward with mid 70s likely across the srn zones by the end of the period.

25

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Sfc obs continue to show areas of dense fog across the area, including at multiple terminals...now that we're past sunrise, conditions should begin improving shortly, leaving behind VFR conditions for the remainder of the day. Then tonight, with forecast soundings indicating plentiful boundary layer moisture, suspect we'll see another round of low visibilities, although have capped values above dense values.

25

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 87 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 LCH 87 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 LFT 88 72 91 72 / 10 0 0 0 BPT 89 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LAZ027-028- 030-031-073-074-141-142-241-242.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ180-201- 259>262-515-516-615-616.

GM...None.

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Mesquite Point
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Sat -- 01:56 AM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:32 AM CDT     0.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:33 PM CDT     1.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:51 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:55 PM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet

Sabine Pass
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Sat -- 01:58 AM CDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:20 AM CDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:19 PM CDT     1.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:50 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:44 PM CDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet

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Lake Charles, LA,