Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Orange, TX
May 5, 2024 12:44 AM CDT (05:44 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:26 AM Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 3:45 AM Moonset 4:29 PM |
GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 312 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late.
Sunday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters rough.
Monday night - Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough.
Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough.
Tuesday night - South winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough.
Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Wednesday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Thursday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Thursday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest after midnight. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 312 Pm Cdt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis - A light to moderate onshore flow and seas two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and storms are again expected to develop tonight into Sunday, then diminishing Sunday night with rain chances remaining limited through the week.
Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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FXUS64 KLCH 050458 AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1158 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Area radar shows a couple of thunderstorms moving into Hardin and Jefferson county at this time, with more activity back to our west. Short term models are still in good agreement with shower and thunderstorm activity increasing further after midnight (mainly for SE TX), followed by another MCS feature moving across the region tomorrow around sunrise. Therefore, only made some small changes to the hourly POP forecast over the remainder of the overnight period, just to fall more in line with current radar and CAMs trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
17
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Scattered convection continues to develop across the area this afternoon in response to a subtle disturbance passing over the region. This activity continues to develop in a very moist airmass, with PWATs around 1.70 inches (around the 90th percentile per SPC Climo). Given the considerable moisture, some storms could be capable of producing heavy rainfall and very high rain rates, potentially aggravating ongoing flooding across SE TX.
So far today, a few small cells have produced heavy rains, yielding increased flows per FLASH data, but convection has not been particularly robust and the generally progressive nature has helped limit flash flooding.
Otherwise, the rainy pattern is expected to persist with another disturbance moving into the region tonight into Sunday. A Flood Watch has been issued for our SE TX Counties, as any additional rain over the saturated ground will contribute further to ongoing flooding.
24
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon's convection is expected to diminish by early this evening. The next round of showers and storms will be forming across TX and moving into the area later tonight after midnight.
Rain chances will expand and increase from west to east overnight into Sunday.
PWATs are progged to remain elevated across the region (peaking between 1.6 and 1.7 inches, or slighter higher). Sufficient lift, instability and deep layer shear will support organization and strong updrafts to allow for both heavy rainfall and a low end severe threat. A few isolated storms could produce a damaging wind gust or two as well as some marginally severe hail, although convection will likely weaken as it progresses east. SPC has outlined a MRGL risk for severe weather given this scenario.
The more impactful threat however continues to be the potential for heavy rainfall over an area that is already saturated, with moderate to major river flooding ongoing. WPC has outlined much of our SE TX areas with a MDT risk for excessive rainfall tonight into Sunday. The HRRR, ARW and HRRR show some of the highest rainfall accumulations across Tyler, Hardin and Jefferson Counties (areas that have already received between 8 and 12 inches of rain over the past week). At this time, blended guidance and WPC suggest area totals of 1 to 3 inches of rain across this area, but localized higher totals of up to 6 inches will certainly be possible (possibly higher if some guidance members verify).
There is still some uncertainty when the rain chances will finally begin to decrease as the HRRR and ARW suggest one last cluster of convection will move through early Sunday evening. Rain chances should begin to diminish after midnight Sunday night, but some low chances will develop again with daytime heating on Monday.
24
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
At the start of the extended period low pressure will be across the northern plains with weak ridging across the northern gulf coast into the Atlantic. This is anticipated to produce dry but breezy conditions across the local area for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures are also expected to run several degrees above climo normals for the date.
Late in the week, an upper trough and associated surface low will move across the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. This may push a cold front to the gulf coast by Friday, however ahead of the boundary, compressional heating may nudge high temperatures in the 90s north of I-10 Thursday afternoon. Showers and storms may be possible along the boundary, but overall coverage is only forecast to be in the 10 to 30% range at the current time. Drier and cooler temperatures are forecast to filter in behind the boundary for the weekend.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Earlier VFR is transitioning to MVFR/IFR, mainly for SETX/SW LA, but will expand area wide into the early morning hours. As we move into the early morning hours, chances for showers/storms increase from west to east as well. Expect further reduction in CIGs /VSBYs under heavier showers/storms.
There remains some uncertainty as to when activity will decrease, but current thinking is by early Sunday evening for most locales.
MARINE
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
A light to moderate onshore flow and seas two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and storms are again expected to develop tonight into Sunday, then diminishing Sunday night with rain chances remaining limited through the week.
24
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
River flooding is expected to persist for several days, and additional rainfall on Sunday may extend or worsen conditions within area basins.
Moderate to Major Flooding continues within the Neches River basin, with major flooding occurring or forecast on the Village Creek near Kountze, the Pine Island Bayou at Sour Lake and at the Neches River Saltwater Barrier. Moderate flooding is also expected along the Sabine River from Bon Wier to Deweyville. Further east, flooding remains in minor category along the Calcasieu River.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 82 66 85 / 30 60 20 30 LCH 71 83 71 84 / 20 40 20 20 LFT 71 85 72 86 / 10 40 20 20 BPT 72 82 71 84 / 30 50 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616.
GM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1158 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
New AVIATION
UPDATE
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Area radar shows a couple of thunderstorms moving into Hardin and Jefferson county at this time, with more activity back to our west. Short term models are still in good agreement with shower and thunderstorm activity increasing further after midnight (mainly for SE TX), followed by another MCS feature moving across the region tomorrow around sunrise. Therefore, only made some small changes to the hourly POP forecast over the remainder of the overnight period, just to fall more in line with current radar and CAMs trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on track.
17
SYNOPSIS
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Scattered convection continues to develop across the area this afternoon in response to a subtle disturbance passing over the region. This activity continues to develop in a very moist airmass, with PWATs around 1.70 inches (around the 90th percentile per SPC Climo). Given the considerable moisture, some storms could be capable of producing heavy rainfall and very high rain rates, potentially aggravating ongoing flooding across SE TX.
So far today, a few small cells have produced heavy rains, yielding increased flows per FLASH data, but convection has not been particularly robust and the generally progressive nature has helped limit flash flooding.
Otherwise, the rainy pattern is expected to persist with another disturbance moving into the region tonight into Sunday. A Flood Watch has been issued for our SE TX Counties, as any additional rain over the saturated ground will contribute further to ongoing flooding.
24
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
This afternoon's convection is expected to diminish by early this evening. The next round of showers and storms will be forming across TX and moving into the area later tonight after midnight.
Rain chances will expand and increase from west to east overnight into Sunday.
PWATs are progged to remain elevated across the region (peaking between 1.6 and 1.7 inches, or slighter higher). Sufficient lift, instability and deep layer shear will support organization and strong updrafts to allow for both heavy rainfall and a low end severe threat. A few isolated storms could produce a damaging wind gust or two as well as some marginally severe hail, although convection will likely weaken as it progresses east. SPC has outlined a MRGL risk for severe weather given this scenario.
The more impactful threat however continues to be the potential for heavy rainfall over an area that is already saturated, with moderate to major river flooding ongoing. WPC has outlined much of our SE TX areas with a MDT risk for excessive rainfall tonight into Sunday. The HRRR, ARW and HRRR show some of the highest rainfall accumulations across Tyler, Hardin and Jefferson Counties (areas that have already received between 8 and 12 inches of rain over the past week). At this time, blended guidance and WPC suggest area totals of 1 to 3 inches of rain across this area, but localized higher totals of up to 6 inches will certainly be possible (possibly higher if some guidance members verify).
There is still some uncertainty when the rain chances will finally begin to decrease as the HRRR and ARW suggest one last cluster of convection will move through early Sunday evening. Rain chances should begin to diminish after midnight Sunday night, but some low chances will develop again with daytime heating on Monday.
24
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
At the start of the extended period low pressure will be across the northern plains with weak ridging across the northern gulf coast into the Atlantic. This is anticipated to produce dry but breezy conditions across the local area for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Temperatures are also expected to run several degrees above climo normals for the date.
Late in the week, an upper trough and associated surface low will move across the upper midwest and Great Lakes region. This may push a cold front to the gulf coast by Friday, however ahead of the boundary, compressional heating may nudge high temperatures in the 90s north of I-10 Thursday afternoon. Showers and storms may be possible along the boundary, but overall coverage is only forecast to be in the 10 to 30% range at the current time. Drier and cooler temperatures are forecast to filter in behind the boundary for the weekend.
05
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
Earlier VFR is transitioning to MVFR/IFR, mainly for SETX/SW LA, but will expand area wide into the early morning hours. As we move into the early morning hours, chances for showers/storms increase from west to east as well. Expect further reduction in CIGs /VSBYs under heavier showers/storms.
There remains some uncertainty as to when activity will decrease, but current thinking is by early Sunday evening for most locales.
MARINE
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
A light to moderate onshore flow and seas two to four feet will prevail for much of the upcoming week. Scattered showers and storms are again expected to develop tonight into Sunday, then diminishing Sunday night with rain chances remaining limited through the week.
24
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 356 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024
River flooding is expected to persist for several days, and additional rainfall on Sunday may extend or worsen conditions within area basins.
Moderate to Major Flooding continues within the Neches River basin, with major flooding occurring or forecast on the Village Creek near Kountze, the Pine Island Bayou at Sour Lake and at the Neches River Saltwater Barrier. Moderate flooding is also expected along the Sabine River from Bon Wier to Deweyville. Further east, flooding remains in minor category along the Calcasieu River.
Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood threat continues.
24
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 82 66 85 / 30 60 20 30 LCH 71 83 71 84 / 20 40 20 20 LFT 71 85 72 86 / 10 40 20 20 BPT 72 82 71 84 / 30 50 20 10
LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616.
GM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX | 20 mi | 56 min | ESE 6G | 75°F | 72°F | 29.88 | ||
| BKTL1 | 23 mi | 56 min | 79°F | |||||
| LCLL1 - 8767816 - Lake Charles, LA | 28 mi | 56 min | 74°F | 87°F | 29.96 | |||
| TXPT2 | 29 mi | 56 min | SE 16G | 75°F | 75°F | 29.86 | ||
| CAPL1 - 8768094 - Calcasieu Pass, LA | 30 mi | 56 min | SE 15G | 76°F | 75°F | 29.93 | ||
| SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX | 33 mi | 44 min | 76°F | 29.91 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KORG ORANGE COUNTY,TX | 5 sm | 29 min | ESE 05 | 10 sm | Overcast | Thunderstorm in Vicinity | 77°F | 73°F | 89% | 29.93 |
| KUXL SOUTHLAND FIELD,LA | 18 sm | 29 min | E 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 75°F | 75°F | 100% | 29.95 |
| KBPT JACK BROOKS RGNL,TX | 19 sm | 27 min | ESE 12 | 10 sm | Overcast | 75°F | 73°F | 94% | 29.89 |
Mesquite Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:25 AM CDT 1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:30 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM CDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:25 AM CDT 1.20 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:30 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM CDT 0.47 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:07 PM CDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:23 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Sat -- 07:56 PM CDT 0.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Mesquite Point, Sabine Pass, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.1 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.6 |
| 7 am |
| 0.5 |
| 8 am |
| 0.5 |
| 9 am |
| 0.6 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.9 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.8 |
Sabine Pass
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM CDT 1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:30 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM CDT 0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:51 PM CDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:49 PM CDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:02 AM CDT 1.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 AM CDT Moonrise
Sat -- 06:30 AM CDT Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM CDT 0.59 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 01:51 PM CDT 1.59 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM CDT Moonset
Sat -- 07:49 PM CDT 0.65 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:54 PM CDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sabine Pass, North, Texas, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.6 |
| 1 am |
| 1.6 |
| 2 am |
| 1.6 |
| 3 am |
| 1.4 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 0.9 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.6 |
| 9 am |
| 0.8 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.2 |
Lake Charles, LA,
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