Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Fleming Island, FL

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 8:33PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:42 PM EDT (00:42 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ452 Expires:202007051000;;328356 Fzus52 Kjax 050037 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 837 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-051000- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 837 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Rest of tonight..Southeast to south winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 837 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis.. A trough of low pressure will linger across the waters through this weekend then lift northward on Monday. Another trough of low pressure and weak cool front will move into the region Wednesday and Thursday. This will lead to a continued unsettled weather pattern with scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms each day through next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 02, 2020 at 1200 utc... 67 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 74 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 85 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 105 nautical miles east of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fleming Island, FL
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location: 30.13, -81.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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FXUS62 KJAX 050001 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 801 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

AVIATION. [Through 00Z Monday]

Weakening convection through early evening with a low chance of showers through the night. Best potential of showers or potentially a tstorm will be near SSI through 12z under SE flow along and north of a weak trough axis. With the weak trough stretched across the local area, there will be a chance of MVFR to IFR stratus restrictions. Latest LAV/SREF guidance trended toward the higher potential of IFR cigs near GNV after 06z, expanding inland across the Suwannee River Valley through 12z. Included FEW010 in GNV TAF at this time. Light SSE winds will prevail near the coast overnight while becoming near calm inland.

Restrictions expected once again Sunday under numerous showers and tstorms which are expected to move inland from both the Gulf Coast and Atlantic through the afternoon, with a gradual decrease in coverage into the early evening.

PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT].

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight].

Current radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and storms from northeast FL and into extreme sern GA, moving north to northeast about 10-15 kt. Drier air and subsidence from areas north of Waycross will see much lower rain chances at 10-15 percent rest of today. So far, convection has been only moderate given fairly weak mid level lapse rates and deep layer shear. Rest of the aftn, mainly expect pulse storms with gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall into the early evening. Stronger forcing from converging outflows and sea breezes may result in a marginally severe storm with winds as main hazard, but this potential remains low at this time. With most of the airmass having been worked over by around the 6-10 PM time frame, most the evening will see scattered showers and some storms but overall diminishing trend expected overnight. However, weak convergence will remain over the northeast Gulf of Mexico due to persistent low to mid level trough over nrn FL. This will support a risk of some showers and storms over areas near and west of I-75 over northeast FL. In addition, subtle sfc troughing extending southeast from the GA coast will produce occasional isolated to scattered convection overnight. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 70s with some light patchy fog and low clouds possible toward early morning.

SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Tuesday].

Sunday through Monday, a weak frontal zone/trough initially extending along the ern Gulf coast and over northeast FL will slowly lift northward through GA which will decrease the low level convergence over the area. We still see shortwave energy rotating northeast over the area on Sunday but less so on Monday as mid level trough will work a little north of the area. Abundant moisture and troughing over the area on Sunday will again lead to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall/localized flooding the main forecast concern. The main area of heavy rainfall for the aftn may be over inland southeast GA and also along the northeast FL coast near and east of Highway 301. Included wording in the forecast for t-storms may produce heavy rainfall. Note that WPC has shown a marginal risk of excessive rainfall for most portions of the area Sunday and Monday. Chances of showers and storms will extend into Sunday evening but diminishes from south to north overnight as better moisture axis starts to lift northward with the low level trough. Monday through Tuesday, elevated rain chances near the 60-80 percent range remain with broad troughing to the north and west producing southwesterly flow for the area. Should see active west and east coast sea breezes given seasonably high PWATs still around 2 inches.

Occasionally early start to precip and more clouds around will keep highs generally from the mid-upper 80s to a few lower 90s. Again, the weather impacts will locally heavy rainfall causing possible localized flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds. Fairly poor mid level lapse rates will keep the locally severe thunderstorm potential low, and if occurs, a severe down-burst wind is the main severe hazard.

LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Saturday].

Long term model solutions on Wed-Thu show sfc ridge located over the central and southern FL peninsula with low to mid level troughing across the deep south from AR to GA and the Carolinas, which results in west to southwest low level flow for our area. We see fairly high moisture with PWATs close to or above 2 inches so anticipate diurnal forced numerous showers and storms, with both west and east coast sea breezes active for convection. Late Thu, mid level trough may deepen a bit over the southeast states, with resultant surface low possibly forming over AL to GA, which will enhance westerly flow and upper level forcing for convection. This may help enhance rain chances to widespread coverage over portions of the area.

On Fri, models diverge a bit with GFS showing broad sfc low centered over ern GA while ECMWF shows one main sfc low off the coast of the Carolinas with sfc trough/frontal zone extending west through our area. While the ECMWF prog is a bit questionable, it has decent agreement with the GFS ensemble. Both solutions suggest high rain chances continuing on Friday, especially over northeast FL, but drier air may begin filter in over central and srn GA as low to mid level trough continues to pivot southward.

On Saturday, models continue to sag the low and mid level trough southward with sfc trough possibly extending from a slow moving sfc low off the Carolinas through southeast GA to the ern Gulf of Mexico. Drier air may be working into our nrn portions of the area, while east and southeast zones continue to have elevated PWATs. Model blends show high rain chances upwards of 70-80 percent but shaved off about 10-15 percent based on 12Z guidance.

Given the setup of high PWATs and instability through the long term, this may may lead to locally heavy rainfall/flooding issues and some strong storms. Temps are expected to be held in check by the precip and clouds with highs close to or just below average in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lows in the lower to mid 70s.

MARINE.

Southeast to south winds near 10 to occasionally 15 knots and seas 2-3 ft through Sunday. Some enhanced winds may be possible Sunday evening near close to sustained 15 knots before fading overnight into Monday morning. Generally south to southwest flow expected Monday through Thursday, though some backing of winds to the southeast near the coast possible due to the east coast sea breeze. Otherwise, trough of low pressure, seasonally high moisture, and storm motions to the east-northeast will lead to good chances of thunderstorms over area coastal waters nearly every day into next week. Main t-storm wx concerns will be gusty winds to special marine warning criteria and frequent lightning.

Rip Currents: A low to moderate risk of rip currents into Sunday due to weak easterly swells and enhanced tidal ranges.

HYDROLOGY.

River levels are fairly low but the frequent storms each day into next week and rainfall amounts that will add up to 1-2 inches in the next few days will elevate water levels on some areas river, mainly the faster responding St Marys and Black Creek Rivers. At this time, forecasts do not show levels getting to action stage but any relatively stationary storms over these basins may result in stronger rises on these rivers.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS.

AMG 71 89 72 89 72 / 10 80 50 90 40 SSI 76 86 76 87 75 / 30 70 60 80 40 JAX 73 89 73 90 74 / 20 80 50 80 20 SGJ 73 88 73 89 74 / 20 70 50 80 20 GNV 73 87 72 88 73 / 20 70 50 80 20 OCF 72 88 73 89 73 / 40 50 50 80 20

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. FL . None. GA . None. AM . None.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JXUF1 16 mi54 min 86°F
DMSF1 19 mi54 min 85°F
NFDF1 19 mi54 min NE 2.9 G 6 69°F 69°F
BLIF1 20 mi60 min NE 8 G 9.9 77°F 1013.6 hPa77°F
LTJF1 22 mi60 min 77°F 74°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 23 mi54 min NE 11 G 16 78°F 1013 hPa
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 29 mi42 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 85°F1013.1 hPa (-0.8)73°F
41117 34 mi46 min 84°F2 ft
FRDF1 - 8720030 - Fernandina Beach, FL 40 mi54 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 83°F1012.6 hPa
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 41 mi57 min Calm 82°F 1014 hPa73°F
41112 - Offshore Fernandina Beach, FL (132) 45 mi46 min 83°F2 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Jacksonville Naval Air Station, FL7 mi1.8 hrsE 410.00 miOvercast79°F73°F82%1012.2 hPa
Cecil Airport, FL12 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1012.9 hPa
Jacksonville Craig Municipal Airport, FL16 mi49 minENE 410.00 miFair78°F70°F76%1012.5 hPa
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL22 mi46 minVar 310.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1012.9 hPa
Mayport Naval Station - Adm David L. McDonald Field, FL23 mi50 minENE 910.00 miThunderstorm77°F73°F88%1012.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNIP

Wind History from NIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W6W4W5CalmCalmCalmW54NW4NW4N4CalmW4N4NE4SE34E11E9NW15W6CalmE4
1 day agoSW10E9NW11S4SW5SW5SW4SW5W5W5W6W7W8CalmSE4CalmSE3NE74S9E7SE13S7W7
2 days agoW4SW5W8SW7SW7SW7W9W7W8W9W8W7W7W10W9W14SW14W13W10W12W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Orange Park, St. Johns River, Florida
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Orange Park
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Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     -0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:49 AM EDT     0.35 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:30 PM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.20-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.200.20.30.30.30.1-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Piney Point, St. Johns River, Florida (3)
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Piney Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 PM EDT     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:54 PM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.60.30-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.70.80.80.70.40.1-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.20.10.40.81

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.